Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[Old Teufel Hunden]

Cruz may need 84% of the delegates to get the nomination, but he needs less to get more delegates than Trump and then Trump will have to concede after he publicly stated in the debates that the candidate with the most delegates should get the nomination. I agree that Kasich has made his point, he can get Ohio for the Republicans. He has made his case for the VP nod and can now get out.

[dadfly]

kasich is gope so he has no “choice.” he’ll do whatever his gope masters say. he’s basically done what they wanted him to do—win ohio, but now he’s their last vote splitter.

so basically i think the gope will encourage both kasich and cruz to stay in. that’s their best option for the convention against trump at this point.

[orchestra]

Not gonna happen...this is open warfare.

[Cyman]

“I am so sick of hearing Ted Cruz is Establishment!”

Don’t worry, the bell will ring and recess will be over shortly.

[nitzy]

For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.

That is just simply, flat out wrong.

To put it in the simplest terms...

If Kasich stays in, it will be somewhere around 950-Trump 750-Cruz, 400-Kasich, 150 Rubio, etc...

If Kasich gets out, it will be about 1180 to 1100 with either Trump or Cruz in the top spot. In a one on one contest, Cruz will beat Trump in many if not most of the remaining states.

Now picture the arguments that will be made by the GOPe in each of these scenarios... Which one will give them the easiest excuse to steal the nomination and give it to Ryan?????

Now do you see why Kasich is staying in?

[GeaugaRepublican]

Sometimes when your candidate is knocked out of the race, you just forget to go to the primary to vote.

[magua]

Go past the first ballot and Cruz is history. He needs to make deal before then. After first ballot its Jebito and Kasich or Mittens. Trump people walk and hello Hillary even from prison.

[DoughtyOne]

[867V309]

Cruz has every incentive to rack up delegates.

Exactly. He somehow has to repay Goldman Sux.

[Alcibiades]

So the 15 or so primaries to go representing millions of voters shouldn’t have any choice at all? Just because they vote later than most of the country. A vote in New Hampshire must count more than one in California or New York.

Screwing over millions of voters doesn’t sound much different than screwing over millions of Trump supporters if he fails to hit the magic number.

Besides if the party truly decides not to go with Trump what makes you think there even is a magic number?

[fooman]

Trump and his supporters are going to end up putting in Hillary if the divisive attacks dont stop.

[bigbob]

I think it’s more accurate to say Ted Cruz “was” establishment, until 4 years ago when he decided it would work better if he called himself an “outsider”.

Ivy League schools, elite associates, a globalist CFR Goldman Sachs wife, you can’t get much more establishement than that. He just used it until it no longer served his needs.

[fooman]

Ted fought hard inside the FTC for free markets.

He is NOT establishment.

[proust]

A snake doesn’t keep its skin forever.

[DoughtyOne]

LINK to supporting web site for data in graphic one above

LINK to supporting web site for data in graphic two above

LINK to supporting web site for data in both graphics above

[CSM]

“Cruz without Rubio is going to be formidable in the comming primaries. Next time, hitch your wagon to a conservative.”

Add that to a very favorable line up of states coming for Cruz and this is by no means a runaway for Trump.

I’m predicting, with honestly evaluating Trump favorability in the NE and Cruz in some western states thatlikely they will be both in the mid 900’s. In some scenarios Trump is up and in others Cruz.

The reason that we are seeing a “general call” for Cruz to drop out is because the reality is that no one will get to the threshold if both of them stay in. Trump likely needs Cruz to drop out to hit 1,237.

[dartuser]

In a one on one contest, Cruz will beat Trump in many if not most of the remaining states.

The delusion is strong with this one ...

[867V309]

Trump and his supporters are going to end up putting in Hillary if the divisive attacks dont stop.

Sometimes the truth just hurts.

[nascarnation]

Cruz is the guy who finished 3rd place in FL (17%) and OH (13%).

I want one of his advocates to show me his path to the Nov win without those two states.

[fooman]

What is you point? Churlish school yard attacks put in Hillary. It that what you want?

NY State is proportional. I could see Ted doing well upstate and on Staten Island.