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Trump's prediction of 'massive recession' puzzles economists
Reason ^ | 03 March 2016 | Lucia Mutikani

Posted on 04/05/2016 6:09:10 PM PDT by Lorianne

Donald Trump's prediction that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a "very massive recession" hit a wall of skepticism on Sunday from economists who questioned the Republican presidential front-runner's calculations.

In an interview with the Washington Post published on Saturday, the billionaire businessman said a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump. He put real unemployment above 20 percent.

"We're not heading for a recession, massive or minor, and the unemployment rate is not 20 percent," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.

The official unemployment rate has declined to 5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, according to government statistics. But a different, broader measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment is at 9.8 percent

(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: trump; trumpistrump; yugerecession
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1 posted on 04/05/2016 6:09:10 PM PDT by Lorianne
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To: Lorianne
Soooo....CNBC reports that the economy may not have grown in the 1st Quarter this year...

So which experts do we want to believe?

2 posted on 04/05/2016 6:11:14 PM PDT by Lysandru
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To: Lorianne

Most of America’s “economists” have been “puzzled” for quite a while now.....


3 posted on 04/05/2016 6:11:30 PM PDT by JBW1949
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To: Lorianne

The official unemployment rate has declined to 5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, according to government statistics
*************************************

And we all believe that, right.......?


4 posted on 04/05/2016 6:11:55 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Lorianne

Boo yah! http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/cramer-donald-trump-is-right-theres-a-bubble.html


5 posted on 04/05/2016 6:12:27 PM PDT by blueplum (March 11, 2016 - the day the First Amendment died?)
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To: Lorianne

“...Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York ....”

Fool doesn’t realize that he has been “punked” by the Fed. and the Gov’t!


6 posted on 04/05/2016 6:13:26 PM PDT by RetiredTexasVet (The Democratic primary is the modern day version of Stalin vs Trotsky for Commissar of the USA.)
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To: Lorianne

When 70 resumes are received for a $10.00 an hour state park ranger job that I am aware of, I can’t comprehend why so called “economists” are puzzled about Trump’s prediction? Can you?


7 posted on 04/05/2016 6:13:30 PM PDT by Sasparilla (Hillary for Prosecution 2016)
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To: Lorianne

The unemployment figures are not accurate, and never have been. The figures that count are the employment figures. I’ve heard that the number of people working has not been this low since the 1970s. Considering we have a lot more people now, that is a real problem. Another problem is that many of the employed only work at part-time jobs.

This economy needs fixing.


8 posted on 04/05/2016 6:15:07 PM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: Lorianne
Wish Denninger would do the "skull thingee" with old Harm Bandholz...

Economists think that because THEIR jobs are safe, there's no problem.

9 posted on 04/05/2016 6:16:11 PM PDT by kiryandil (.)
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To: Lorianne

I don’t remember economists predicting the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8...


10 posted on 04/05/2016 6:16:32 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (BREAKING.... Vulgarian Resistance begins attack on the GOPe Death Star.....)
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To: Lorianne

I heard Trump on the radio, talking about the coming oil glut, 4 years ago.


11 posted on 04/05/2016 6:18:24 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Lorianne

So these economists think we can go on deficit spending $6 BILLION dollars every day?

http://usdailydeficit.com/


12 posted on 04/05/2016 6:19:51 PM PDT by Iron Munro (Noah: 'When the animals began to pair up by specie and stand in line, I really took notice.')
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To: blueplum

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/03/24/pat-buchanan-trump-as-nominee-could-transition-gop-to-a-different-new-exciting-robust-party/


13 posted on 04/05/2016 6:23:50 PM PDT by Bogie (Just a coincidence?)
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To: Lorianne
Labor Force Participation Rate

Anyone else tired of hearing the word "unexpectedly"?

14 posted on 04/05/2016 6:24:49 PM PDT by Tench_Coxe (For every Allende, there is a Pinochet)
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To: Lorianne

Are these the same wizards of smart who turned the word unexpected into a meme?


15 posted on 04/05/2016 6:28:13 PM PDT by douginthearmy
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To: Lorianne

“It may turn out the economy did not grow at all in the first quarter”

From another posted article....


16 posted on 04/05/2016 6:37:19 PM PDT by heights
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To: Lorianne

Once the Magic-Negro hype is gone, this overstimulated thing will likely fall flatter than a flitter... Trump is there to warn about that so when it happens we don’t get the immediate hoots about oh sure, if this is making America great I’d sure hate to see making America terrible.

But again, maybe it won’t.


17 posted on 04/05/2016 6:48:45 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: Lorianne

Only puzzles “economists” who think we can create near-infinite amounts of money out of thin air without any negative consequences.

Rational economists, like those of the Austrian School, can clearly see what a disaster awaits us.

see for example:
Federal Reserve Policies Cause Booms and Busts
https://mises.org/library/federal-reserve-policies-cause-booms-and-busts

And: Austrian Business Cycle Theory.
https://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Austrian_Business_Cycle_Theory

Note the concept: “Malinvestment”.
https://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment


18 posted on 04/05/2016 7:02:01 PM PDT by theBuckwheat
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To: Lorianne

Are these the same economists who claim the US unemployment rate is 4.9%?

Well, Trump was right about Belgium...


19 posted on 04/05/2016 7:09:39 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: Lorianne

Trump predicts a massive recession. He also predicts he will be elected President. Hmmmmm.


20 posted on 04/05/2016 7:21:29 PM PDT by Brilliant
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