Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
In the general election not the primary.
There are no polling or data to demonstrate cruz would win any state Romney lost (or McCain or Dole for that matter)
Yes, I am ok with it going to convention if no one hits the magic number. If Ted doesn’t get it, I am OK with it, those are the rules. If Kaisch gets the nomination, I would not be OK with it, but I have not liked the Republican nominee since Reagan left. But I voted for all them holding my nose.
I think there's a lot of truth in that. Trump's experience has been in doing a lot of things where how you win doesn't matter. But in a 50 state primary, convention, and then subsequent general election, how you win catches up to you.
Another thing that I think is interesting about Trump's business experience is that he's never worked for anyone else. He hasn't started at the bottom, worked his way up, etc.. He was born into being either the boss, or the boss's kid, who can say whatever he wants, and whose jokes everyone will laugh at. You don't learn the same kind of filter that most people do because what your underlings think of those kind of behaviors isn't that important.
Everyone isn't laughing at his jokes anymore.
Stop peddling this BS. Trump is being targeted by paid, leftist Dem agitators. They see Trump as the biggest threat to the Dems because of his crossover appeal to traditional Dem constituencies. His populist, nationalistic message is resonating across partisan lines. Immigration and trade would never have been raised as issues without Trump.
The endorsement of Trump by Jeff Sessions is dispositive to me.
LOL. But the rules can be changed at any time. They will be voting on the rules before the convention. What kind of game is it where the rules can be changed while the game is being played?
-PJ
You didn’t answer the question- is it acceptable for Trump to run third party and destroy the country he claims to love?
The two most valuable franchises on earth - bar none - are the ostensibly non-profit organizations call the Republican & Democratic political parties.
Politicians who make it to "partner" level outperform even notable firms like Goldman Sachs in terms of wealth & prestige. I would guess something near 100% achieve multi-millionaire status.
Policy differences - if they even exists - are for partisan chumps. The key is access & control over $multi-trillion dollar budgets, and the ability to help guide and form an even larger $extra-trillion dollar economy.
Seen from this perspective, the GOPe is acting completely rationale. There are immense amounts of booty to be had, and they certainly aren't going to put it at risk due to some yahoos (ie American voters) who think they actually have a say in matters. LOL
There are 125 unpledged delegates, some of those may be persuaded to vote Trump on the first round. There are delegates from Rubio and Carson. Not sure if they are bound to vote for the candidates who have suspended, and even if they are they may choose to violate the rules.
So I would say the smaller the number the more likely Trump can make it up from the small pool available. If it gets to 100 or above I think it will be very hard.
It’s not really an option at this point, but if you win the Primary in your party and they give the Nomination to someone who failed to earn the votes, then I see it as an option sure.
That won’t be what will happen in this case. It will just be millions of Republican voters feeling betrayed and staying home or writing in Trump.
They cannot deny Trump the nomination if he actually wins it with 1237.
They best not deny it to him if he has 1200 and the other guy doesn’t. They can do it all day long if they wish, but like I said, Rule#1 is not to piss off your voters.
I haven’t looked what these two Breitbart Morons put down state-to-state, but you can bet it is to going be wrong by far. I had a small question about Maryland however a poll out today has Trump comfortably in the lead to take the state. It’s likely going to be a clean 6 state sweep for Trump for the rest of April.
Thanks for the (accurate) report!
Please don't tell Mrs. Ez I said that.
No doubt there is paid agitprop, but not all of the opposition is paid. I don’t think what I said is BS and I am definitely not peddling it. I am just stating what I think. Cheers to a fellow FREEPer...
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