Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination

Breitbart.com ^ | 6 Apr 2016 | Mike Flynn & Michael Patrick Leahy

[Rockitz]

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.

A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.

As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.

In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.

[fatez]

I didn’t blame Trump. But do you not think words can stoke people? I have been incensed numerous times by Obama’s rhetoric, but not to the point to violence.

[Freedom56v2]

I understand your position.

To your and my defense, I never would have predicted the relentless attacks on Trump. I don’t think I have ever seen a party cannibalize it’s own front-runner. So I did not consider running until it became a potential (and now actual) problem.

I don’t know who you are supporting, but I think it is outrageous that a party that has been dying on the vine for the past 8 years or longer would sabotage the campaign of the front-runner—whoever that is. I also firmly believe that the GOPe will not allow Cruz to be the nominee if Cruz is the outsider that he is touted to be.

[RedWhiteBlue]

Bingo. You can’t systematically insult, trash, and lie about your opponents and then expect their supporters to rally behind you.

[Red Steel]

CA: 94 of 172

This is what McCain accomplished with a modest 7.7% California win in 2008 when the state primary was last contested. McCain won 155 CA delegates. Poll after poll show Trump winning in CA, and he will likely by 10% or more.

I have Trump winning 150 California delegates being conservative with my count in comparison with McCain 2008 model. Trump only needs to match what McCain did in 2008 and that's not too hard.

In other states, I got Trump winning half of MT delegates, and in SD I actually have Trump winning zero in my scenario even though I believe he will win some delegates there.

In Oregon I have Trump winning about 20 out of 28. Washington 38 out of 44. These two states will go pretty much like CA.

In NM I have trump taking 12 out of 24 delegates in this proportional primary state.

CT + MD + RI + DE + PA: 95 of 172

Trump takes about 99 here only because PA has 54 unbound delegates.

IN: 6 of 57

These two clowns are smoking dope thinking this about Indiana. Trump takes this state by winning 30 outright for being the winner, and wins 6 of the 9 CDs for 48 delegates for Trump.

[3161J410]

TRUMP !!!

[NelsonEddyFan]

“Stolen” seems to be tossed around pretty carelessly.

A plurality is not a majority.

[njc4]

Cruz is trying to do with a voting segment what BO did with the Black vote. There is a lack of respect in this. There is also a value judgment made of these voters on various levels. Although an evangelical, myself a cold chill went through me when C. began to do this.

[NelsonEddyFan]

I think an independent run would be staggeringly expensive for a self-funder like Trump. The nominee of the party has all the resources of the party.

[lodi90]

“Stolen” seems to be tossed around pretty carelessly.

A plurality is not a majority.

---

13% in OH and 17% in FL is not a POTUS. Sorry, their are no other viable candidates. Therefore, it would be stolen.

[bill1952]

Maybe because he would need a few hundred more delegates?

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

Bingo. You can’t systematically insult, trash, and lie about your opponents and then expect their supporters to rally behind you.

I wasn't a "Cruzer", and didn't have a dog in the Cruz/Trump fight here when it started. I started out supporting Rubio - and not because I agreed with everything he did (I hated the Gang of 8 too). I just believe that what was most needed was a really good communicator who could reach younger people with the small government/self-reliance/opportunity core message of conservatism. I think if we don't win them, it's over. But Rubio screwed up and didn't make it.

When it came down to Cruz or Trump, I really didn't have a bias in terms of what I was reading here. But when I come here and read the stuff so many Trump supporters are saying, it makes me feel like "screw it", I don't want to give those kind of people what they want, or to reward that kind of behavior.

Now sure, it would be irrational not to vote for a candidate just because you find so many of his supporters (obviously not all) so annoying.

But damn, it gets really tempting sometimes.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I'm really torn. I've said before that I thought Trump had turned a corner after AIPAC, and I was working on anti-Trump family members to support Trump if he was the nominee. They are lifelong Republicans, and in the anti-Trump camp.

Then all this other stuff came down, and I lost them (on the Heidi Cruz picture, for what it's worth). They're going to sit this one out, and say they know a lot of folks who are going to do the same. I think a lot of Republicans are genuinely terrified that Trump is not only going to lose the election, but will be toxic to Republicans trying to maintain control of Congress.

Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think if he's the nominee, there's a chance that he'll maybe stay off Twitter, listen a bit more to some folks with cooler heads, and not be a complete disaster. If Cruz wins it, fine. I can live with that because I think the anti-Trump sentiment among voters is legitimate and deserves to be recognized.

But I just can't go for someone other than those two, as much as I wish they weren't the leaders. And I think the sentiment that it would just be wrong (and heavily damage the party) to nominate someone other than Trump or Cruz will be strong enough to keep one of those guys as the nominee.

[ichabod1]

Why? The grassroots revolution is finally to the point where it has enough supporters to really impact things. Don’t give up now! Play your Trump card!

[peyton randolph]

“the Rules are Rules crowd”

*****

It is not in the interest of either Trump or Cruz to change or eliminate Rule 40. If adopted for this convention, that eliminates anyone else (including Kasich) from being the potential nominee.

At that point for us “rules are rules” crowd, it will be interesting to see how those rules work out. Cruz is trying to get delegates in place that will switch to him if there is a second ballot.

OTOH, there’s nothing to prevent Trump from providing incentives for delegates to vote for him. Because it is an internal party process rather than an election, Trump could provide monetary and other incentives for delegate votes (e.g. a 2-week stay at his place down in Florida, a ride on the Trump jet, etc.). He could even offer the VP slot to someone like Rubio or Kasich in an effort to get their delegates on board for a first ballot win.

I’d much rather see it fought out this way under the rules than have GOPe elders annoint Paul Ryan as Hillary’s sacrificial lamb. Neither Trump nor Cruz are in this to lose (unlike Ryan, Romney, and McCain).

[ichabod1]

Now a couple of flunkies named Randy & Lahey:

[ichabod1]

Now a couple of flunkies named Randy & Lahey:

[Hostage]

Lol!

But can they do arithmetic?

[itsahoot]

OTOH, there’s nothing to prevent Trump from providing incentives for delegates to vote for him.

Otherwise known as illegal bribes.

It is the whole corrupt process that should anger us not cause us to brag about being able to manage it better than the other guy.

[ichabod1]

Then he should not be very popular in New York, where people know him, right?

[dware]

Stealing is absolutely the right word - stealing with sleazeball, scumbag, womanizing, backstabbing, lying tactics. Have you scheduled your Hitlery victory party yet? Because that is precisley what y’all sCruzeballs are working for.