Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
I’d stop rather be in trumps current position.
and now the GOP officials in Colorado are being flooded with death threats. Despicable. “Team Cruz started organizing in Dec while Trump spent his time hurling insults on Twitter. “Buck said he started informally organizing for the Cruz campaign in December, and was formally named chair of the campaign in January and has been working with volunteers since then.
“It is typical of the Trump campaign to blame losing on other candidates cheating or unfairly taking advantage of the system,” Buck said. “The truth is that the rules in Colorado have been set for awhile, they were determined by the central committee. They were sent out to all the campaigns.”
The Colorado Republican Party decided last summer to nix a presidential preference vote to get around an RNC rule attempting to bind delegates to the state winner. Instead, Colorado wanted the option of having their delegates be unbound in Cleveland.
Buck said Cruz it is “viewed in Colorado as somebody who has stuck by his conservative principles” and as a result he was able to attract an army of grassroots volunteers eager to work on their free time to help his efforts in the state.” Wash. Examiner
1237 is the number. So you're saying that even if he had 1246, he couldn't get them on the 2nd or 3rd ballot. He wins on the 1st ballot with 1246. Why would there even be a 2nd or 3rd ballot?
The only way this couldn't happen on the 1st ballot is if the delegates that were committed to vote the voters' will on the first ballot actually didn't. You think that would be a 'hoot'?
That is why Trump likes ‘lowly educated’ people, they will believe his BS when he says he was cheated.
It wasn’t just Trump primary voters who were cheated. The entire slate of voters were cheated in Colorado.
called the establishment GOP.
” I got no notice (though I had registered with the locals and given contact info well in advance).”
You didn’t know there was a election this year?
” Though I was traveling in Feb, I expected to be back in time.”
So you were out of town? Who’s fault is that?
“Looked where to caucus in area online. I felt very much shut out like the fix was in—for Cruz. Another WY Republican friend had the same experience.”
You couldn’t your caucus site, or you couldn’t find it online?
Are you deluded or something. so you have no problem with a group of 5 party hacks taking away the voters rights?
WOW Trump has sure made everyone see the elitist,party hacks on here and elsewhere.
“It would be a shame if President Clinton appoints 3 or 4 Supreme Court Justices.”
That would be the fault of those that voted for her best friend, Donald.
Are you sure about that?
“I guess partial birth abortions that are done by the rules are also okay with you so called “conservatives”, eh? “
Trump is the big time planed parenthood supporter. It must be his NYC values?
I hear that Canada's salsa sucks ... ;-)
Its starting to become clear many of the Cruz supporters are actually party-insider GOPe people. Hence the flooding of anti-Trump Hit Pieces but very little giving a reason to vote for Cruz.
Uh Huh, that explains why almost all the Delegates and the selection process for CO was made up of GOP party officers, Elites and donors. Cruz is winning nothing, Its the GOPe machine already in place doing the dirty work here.
And odds are its not just Trump people angry. Americans do not like thieves. Especially ones who push it in their faces.
I was out yesterday and a elderly couple who are non party said that they had heard cruz had stolen the election by paying off the delegates.
Moere and more are fed up of cruz and if cruz was smart he would stop this nonsense and dirty establishment tricks, but alas he started his dirty tricks in Iowa when he said Carson was stepping down.
Then the sleazy mailing list in Iowa
Then telling Rubio voters he was stepping down and not ice a pattern here?
Always his establishment hacks defend this or just ignore it.
Now he pays off delegates to ignore the will of the voter.
Remember a time when people on here said they hated the establishment and that the Dems were taking votes away from voters and ignoring the will of voters?
Yea those same people now defend all of this.
Trump does better in areas where the people are actually suffering. These states have it good. They are scarcely populated, have few immigration problems, and crime is low. Those voters are happy with the status quo and not ready for an insurgent candidate.
Trump is on record (video) saying that he would never ask God’s forgiveness!
Except it isn’t a lie...
This is Shooter Chennye’s (sp DGAF) territory.
“It wasn’t just Trump primary voters who were cheated.”
CO didn’t have a primary.
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