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What's at Stake in the New York Primary
abc news ^ | Apr 18, 2016 | Meghan Keneally

Posted on 04/18/2016 6:06:10 PM PDT by MIA_eccl1212

A WNBC/WSJ/Marist poll released April 15 shows Trump with 54 percent support of Republican primary voters. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in second place with 21 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz with 18 percent.

ABC News political analyst Matt Dowd said that it seems pretty clear that Trump is going to win the state, and he could stand to pick up a sizable amount of the state's 95 delegates.

"If he picks up north of 75 [delegates], he has a real path to 1,237," Dowd said, referring to the number of delegates a Republican...

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 1237; 2016election; blowout; catastrophism; election; election2016; godsgravesglyphs; newyork; notagggtopic; ny2016; trump
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poll released April 15 shows Trump with 54 percent support of Republican primary voters
1 posted on 04/18/2016 6:06:10 PM PDT by MIA_eccl1212
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To: MIA_eccl1212
Trump needs to be 50% or more in every congressional district to get the full 95 delegates at stake.

Does anybody know where Trump is vulnerable in NY? I think he has a good shot at carrying every congressional district with >50% of the vote.

2 posted on 04/18/2016 6:10:11 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: MIA_eccl1212

If Cruz doesn’t drop out after NY he has become a bona fide enemy of everything the Tea Party stood for, because he is guaranteeing a Clinton victory if he continues.


3 posted on 04/18/2016 6:10:47 PM PDT by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: SamAdams76

Analysis I saw figured that Trump might lose 5 or so delegates in Congressional districts where he does not get a majority.


4 posted on 04/18/2016 6:11:37 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw

I agree, but the Cruzloyalists think the Uniparty will let him be the nominee at a contested convention without Cruz agreeing to be on board The Cheap Labor Express.

I think he is already on board.


5 posted on 04/18/2016 6:15:50 PM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: SamAdams76

Trump is vulnerable in UPSTATE NY.

“Ted Cruz, a breath of fresh air in Upstate!

“..Yet, so many wonderful, hardworking New York natives have fled our state. Why? Because of corrupt, bullying dictator politics, over regulation, oppressive taxes, and zero job growth! So it was refreshing to have a level headed candidate, who actually respects the Constitution, come and address voters in our area. People in upstate are hurting economically and the power hungry Albany machine has done nothing to help.

Ted Cruz is morally grounded and reveres God. One of the things that is of utmost importance to the Christian voter is that he values protecting innocent life. Again, unlike New York blowhards-(Gov. Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Chuck Schumer, and Paul Tonko) Ted Cruz is opposed to abortion. He actually takes to heart and respects that God is the creator of life…all life!

While our own ‘Dictator in Chief’ (Andrew Cuomo) wastes his time, and our money, making ridiculous travel bans to Mississippi and North Carolina, and has repeatedly told fellow conservative New Yorkers we aren’t welcome here….Ted Cruz focuses on smaller Government, tax alleviation, and job creation- something conservatives have been longing to hear from a serious candidate. Conservatives understand that in order to see any economy thrive we need to stop over-regulation and decrease the taxes.”

ALB. TIMES UNION http://blog.timesunion.com/joy/ted-cruz-a-breath-of-fresh-air-in-upstate-2/2107/2103/


6 posted on 04/18/2016 6:18:47 PM PDT by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: Lurkinanloomin

After RNC dirty tricks, almost from the very beginning, Trump supporters will now NEVER support any Republican nominee not named Trump. And they have a point.


7 posted on 04/18/2016 6:18:53 PM PDT by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: MIA_eccl1212

I saw a poll just a couple of hours ago on CBS nightly news. It showed Kasich now LAST!


8 posted on 04/18/2016 6:20:52 PM PDT by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw
If Cruz doesn’t drop out after NY he has become a bona fide enemy of everything the Tea Party stood for, because he is guaranteeing a Clinton victory if he continues.

Honestly, I don't think Cruz cares enough about the country to drop out. He'll happily give the election to Hillary if the voters don't behave and choose him. Sad.

9 posted on 04/18/2016 6:20:57 PM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: SamAdams76

He’s running ahead of both Romney 2012 and McCain 2008 and they ended up getting all the New York delegates. Trump is going to get well over 1 million votes from New York which will be bigger than twice the Romney and McCain results combined. There is also the fact that New York is Trump’s home turf so like Cruz in Texas and Kasich in Ohio he will get an automatic +5 or more on top of whatever his rcp avg is. Trump is very likely to get +60% of the vote tomorrow and if he does he will win every New York delegate. McCain only got 51% of the vote and still won every New York congressional district so anyone who is holding out hope that Trump will falter in NY is really naïve. Its going to be a blow out of epic proportions.


10 posted on 04/18/2016 6:24:10 PM PDT by Maelstorm (Free is just another word for someone else has to pay.)
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To: Sun

“Ted Cruz is morally grounded and reveres God.”

You, as a Chistian, shouldn’t be lying like that!


11 posted on 04/18/2016 6:26:55 PM PDT by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw
If Cruz doesn’t drop out after NY he has become a bona fide enemy of everything the Tea Party stood for...

That's your opinion.

Cruz is the only one in the race working to have Tea Party loyalist delegates represented at the convention.

12 posted on 04/18/2016 6:28:38 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Sun

Ted is not moving up from dead last, in my opinion.
having said that, the last poll the night before CAN at times be a push poll meant to affect outcome and turnout.

I think that everybody knows the outcome... Trump obviously cheated because he won the majority of those “damned new york value voters” instead of making backroom deals with trojan horse delegates like the other fella.


13 posted on 04/18/2016 6:31:49 PM PDT by MIA_eccl1212 (When you see a drowning liberal, throw them the anchor...)
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To: FreeReign

Cruz cannot win... So what the hell is he doing?


14 posted on 04/18/2016 6:32:36 PM PDT by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: Sun

Barf alert at its highest form. Your absolutely disgusting to lie about Cruz in that way. He is awful and 100 percent a thief, fraud, cheat and liar not in any particular order. You should be ashamed of yourself.


15 posted on 04/18/2016 6:37:28 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: FreeReign

“Cruz is the only one in the race working to have Tea Party loyalist delegates represented at the convention. “

Don’t kid yourself. Cruz hired the guy who tried to kill the Tea Party -Ron Nehring - to be his national spokesman.

Someone who was a serious Tea Party supporter wouldn’t do that. It’s all an act.


16 posted on 04/18/2016 6:37:47 PM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (BREAKING.... Vulgarian Resistance begins attack on the GOPe Death Star.....)
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To: Sun

I hope not. Cruz must be last.


17 posted on 04/18/2016 6:38:08 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: MIA_eccl1212

If Cruz loses about 83 more delegates from all remaining states, he is mathematically unable to get to 1237.

Kasich cannot reach 1237. Without a major surge to win in 7 more states, Kasich will not qualify for nomination under the Rule 40 requirement that candidates get a majority of delegates in at least 8 states.


18 posted on 04/18/2016 6:42:51 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: MIA_eccl1212

It would be nice if Cruz didn’t get to the 20 percent needed to even be eligible for delegates.

Last I heard Trump has huge leads in the 5 primaries on April 26th, PA, CT, RI, DE and MD. I hope Cruz comes in last in all of them. That would set him up to lose IN, NE and WV.


19 posted on 04/18/2016 6:45:32 PM PDT by euram
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To: MIA_eccl1212

Out of respect for the Cruznoids, I am wearing black as I enter this thread.

RIP Tead.

Withing 24 hours Ted’s path to 1237 before the convention ends.

With it ends the make believe world of the man who loses.


20 posted on 04/18/2016 6:45:55 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Hey Ted, why are you taking one for the RNC/GOPe team, and not ours? Not that we don't know.)
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