Posted on 04/22/2016 4:01:27 PM PDT by markomalley
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s effort to close out the Democratic race may be going awry, as a new poll shows she’s in danger of losing California to Sen. Bernie Sanders.
According to a new Fox News poll conducted April 18-21, Clinton has the support of 48 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, while Sanders is right behind with 46 percent. That’s the closest margin yet between the two in the state, which awards more delegates to the Democratic National Convention than any other.
Clinton holds a substantial delegate lead over Sanders and remains heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination, and a narrow loss in California wouldn’t change the situation much since Democratic primaries award all delegates proportionally.
California is the last state on the Democratic calendar and losing it could drain much of Clinton’s momentum going into the Democratic convention. At least in theory, a major loss could even induce some Democratic superdelegates to consider backing Sanders, which is likely the only plausible way for him to nab the nomination at this late stage.
Meanwhile, in the Republican race, Donald Trump holds a gargantuan lead over his remaining Republican rivals, polling at 49 percent support compared to 22 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz and 20 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Trump’s 27-point advantage represents a huge boost over other recent polls, which have given him a lead of seven to 18 percentage points.
Trump’s massive lead could be critical, as he is still fighting hard to secure a majority of delegates prior to the Republican National Convention. California awards its delegates on a winner-take-most basis, where the winner of each congressional district takes three delegates. Trump’s big lead increases the chance that he will sweep every district in California, which would give him an excellent chance of reaching the critical 1,237-delegate threshold.
Despite Trump’s big lead, Fox’s poll also found that Republicans who don’t support him are deeply dissatisfied and may consider voting third party or not voting at all. Thirty percent said they would consider a third-party vote in a Clinton v. Trump match-up, while 12 percent said they wouldn’t vote.
The story was similar for Sanders supporters. In a Clinton v. Trump match-up, 36 percent said they’d consider a third party and nine percent said they wouldn’t vote at all.
The poll had a sample size of 483 Republicans and 523 Democrats. Each sub-group’s survey had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
I thought she was going to loose NY and was proven wrong.
Not sure what is going to come out of CA.
I’m just glad I don’t live there anymore.
"President Trump." Get used to saying it now. ;)
Trump wins CA in a first round KO against Cruz.
But it would certainly be nice if Sanders wins. IMO up to half his support will go to Trump in November if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination.
Yep, that election (or lack thereof) in CO sure gave Trump a big boost. Trump and Cruz were neck-and-neck, with Trump maybe a point or two ahead, prior to that fiasco.
Its a trap to get Trump to waste money and time there in the general election.
First Cruz is going to get stomped on this Tuesday in multiple primaries. Then he will get stomped on in Indiana shortly thereafter. Then he will REALLY get stomped on BIG-TIME in CA. By that time he will be flatter than a Rachel Corrie pancake. And equally dead. John Kasich will be a mere drizzle of syrup on the pancake.
Imagine.
Trump v Sanders
Makes your head hurt.
I love it!!
We heard early on in the GOP campaign how this was the “deepest, best field in years” (of course, they didn’t mean Trump). Yet he has beaten them all.
Paul-GONE
Christie-GONE
Fiorina-GONE
Santorum-GONE
Huckabee-GONE
Bush-GONE
Rubio-GONE
Graham-GONE
Walker-GONE
Jindal-GONE
Carson-GONE
And for all intents and purposes
Cruz-GONE
Kay-sick-GONE
I think that says a lot about Trump. His critics don’t realize that by pumping up the field earlier, they have in fact elevated him to a darn good candidate.
Go Bernie!!!!
Gee. Imagine that. A Red (as in Marxist) state is going to vote for the open commie Bernie as opposed to the closet commie Hillary.
Call me shocked.
Call it the truth.
California will show its true colors and they ain’t the Red, White and Blue, only the RED.
Interesting....
I have a real concern with Bernie looking strong in any state. I would rather Hillary win the nomination handily than have a contested Dem convention and the people demanding to have Bernie as their nominee. He is scary popular with certain demographics. I think Trump should plan a run against him as well, and hit him HARD!
We need hitlary to win
My sympathies to the Dems for having Hillary shoved down their throats.
Does anybody know if the Democrat rules require their superdelegates to choose only between Clinton and Sanders, or could they support an undeclared candidate who is more of a mainstream Democrat, such as Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush?
Hill had better rally all those illegal and do it now. She can’t be beat by that other old communist there.
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