Posted on 05/09/2016 10:05:11 AM PDT by GonzoII
HuffPost Model
Our model of the polls suggests Clinton is very likely leading. (In >99% of simulations, Clinton led Trump.)
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.huffingtonpost.com ...
OK, fine. There are 183 days left before election day.
In general, I’d say the more people hear Hillary, the more turned of they are (which is why Chelsea and Bill are doing stump speeches for her).
And in general, the more people hear Trump speak, the more likely they are to like him (more than the devilish caricature they see on Facebook).
So for him to be close this early is not bad.
This is just the beginning. It’s the part of the tsunami where the water is moving out and things still seem calm. “Registered voters” is a bloc in a poll that is very easy to manipulate.
I know it - what’s even the point other than propaganda?
“Notice how almost all polls are done with Registered Voters only.”
Yep, and Rasmussen’s LV polls show a much closer race.
She'll be using a Dem version of Bob Dole's playbook. Oughta work well.
And she is more likely to run on "Not Trump" and less substance than the other way around.
Trump just got finished with one of the most viscous primary fights in political history where millions was spent to slander him by his own party. The fact that he is only behind by single digits demonstrates that he can easily make up the difference in the next six months.
We know that RV is not LV. Lots of registered voters end up not voting. There are always huge discussions surrounding the methods by which polling groups arrive at their secret sauce for determining how to identify a likely voter and what are the weightings for determining how many democrat, republican, and independent voters to include. Get the formula right and you win fame and fortune. Get the formula wrong and you’ll get paid by one side or the other anyway. It’s a grand shell game.
But we do know that it’s too early for the polls to even matter and especially if they’re having to hype registered voters polls.
Uh-oh.
i was going to say- its May 9th- big deal...the god news is four years ago everyone at FR came down on Rasmusen as he consistently had ayatollah obama ahead of spineless romney by 3% to 4% and rasmusen was right on election night..
How much of Hillary’s 46.8 is #nevertrump?
Either way Trump is in striking distance. He needs to unify the party and depress D turnout. He can start by widely circulating Hillary’s disgraceful defense of a child rapist.
Not much one would think.
That’s IT?
After having the GOP-e, Clinton, and the entire media machine trying to destroy Trump.
No wonder everyone is going nuts.
You got that right. VOTE TRUMP!
He's doing better than that. He's ahead of where Reagan and Bush 41 were at this point.
(Yes, of course the landscape has changed since the 1980 and 1988 elections -- and persons of color would never consider voting for Trump. Didn't Rapper Azealia Banks just endorse him?)
Already, those polls are no longer really terrific leads for hillary. Factor in the enthusiasm factor and Trump’s in real good shape. Keep in mind Trump’s supporters will drive hours and wait hours in line for a rally. hillary’s supporters mostly wouldn’t even cross the street to hear her speak.
ahhhmmmm. These polls are BULL-—T
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