Problems is that VA and FLA used to be solid red but aren’t anymore. Illegals (FLA) and government workers (Northern VA).
Donald Trump has to win VA, FLA and either Iowa or Ohio and maybe even PA.
One reason we have to stop any form of amnesty or fast track citizenship is that it will skew the demographics and guarantee Demo control of the government.
I agree with your analysis, especially concerning Northern Virginia, which has its own illegal alien communities in Arlington and Prince William, to go along with the earnest airey-fairy good-government types who come to DC to save the world.
Loudoun County might be an interesting bellweather (Leesburg) as it has a mix of ultra-rich lefties along with traditional horse country old money Republicans.
But the rest of the state, I-81 down to the coal corner, and the tidewater region with the military presence, should be bright red and should hopefully offset the liberally-infected northern counties outlined above.