Posted on 05/21/2016 8:15:28 PM PDT by Innovative
The biggest key for Trump to win this election is a combination of three things. First he needs to gain a greater share of the female vote than he currently has. Second, he’ll need to carry a greater share of independents. Lastly, and I can’t stress this one enough, he needs to get a percentage of what were formerly referred to as “Reagan democrats” on Election Day. If he’s able to achieve those three goals it’s not going to matter what percentage of the Hispanic vote he gets because that vote will be a pittance compared to the numbers that I mentioned above.
Agree with you. I’ve watched on-the-street interviews here in Texas with legal citizen hispanics and they oppose the illegals big time!
Luck Fatinos
Yes, I do. We all know Clinton is going to win the Hispanic vote. Trump just needs to minimize the margin as best he can, but W was the highwater mark in winning 37%. Trump will do great if he wins 30%.
What is the point of your question? Polls are taken all the time for candidates, issues, demographics. I know your question was rhetorical, but I answered it anyway.
Polls are overwhelmingly correct. Republicans have never won the Hispanic vote - ever. To expect Trump to win the Hispanic vote is ludicrous and anti intellectual. Let us hope you are not advising Trump.
Trump himself has finally hired pollsters for the first time which he needs to do so if he wants to beat Hillary.
The highwater mark for republicans is Bush winning 37% of Hispanics in 2000. Trump won't get anywhere near that percent. As I stated in an earlier post, Trump will do well to win 30% of Hispanics. We are a much more polarized country than in 2000 and Trump's bold style of wall building and other comments don't necessarily harvest Hispanic votes. Trump needs to say those things, so the hope is he can win a greater percent of the white vote to put him over the finish line.
Here is a sobering fact: in 1988, HW Bush won 59% of the white vote and won 40 states in an easy victory. In 20012, Romney won 59% of the white vote and lost, as the polls predicted. So, a current day republican needs to win a greater percent of the white vote to win. Trump can achieve that if the democrat turnout is depressed and the democrat voters do not turn out to vote for Hillary since she generates zero enthusiasm. This is what I think will happen.
The key is to win the right Hispanics, and not the La Raza types.
We can continue to attempt to win an ever increasing percentage of the diminishing white vote and ignore all else or we can learn to compete for Latino and Asian an even black votes. Adapt or die. That does NOT mean pandering. We don't try to market our own ideas in a manner attractive to Latinos, Asians and blacks.
If conservatives and Republicans can successfully market sometimes undependable widgets, why can they not effectively market the far more dependable truths of capitalism and morality? Why aren't we selling FREEDOM and the dream of prosperity?
Not only is the white percentage of the vote declining but it seems as though an increasing percentage of it is degenerating spiritually, morally, and even in terms of economic attitudes. Sell capitalism in the black community instead. Stress it in the relatively and often enthusiastically capitalistic Asian communities. Stress it in the Latino community as well. First generation Latinos are likely more dependent on government than the next and future generations will be.
In all three of these communities. stress family and social issues. None of them are anxious to have their grandchildren aborted or their children in sexually deviant relationships. If Republicans and conservatives think themselves such all stars at capitalism, why not learn to market to available but non-traditional potential Republican "customers?"
The white vote is being afflicted by many factors. How many white women have had abortions but feel guilt and develop a defensive attitude leading to Demonrat votes? How many white men have taken Suzie by the ear to the abortion mill in order to avoid child support and feel a need to defend abortion?
How many white kids are consigned to government sponsored ideological indoctrination centers known as public schools where the kiddies learn all about the "evils" of the US and the conservatives and the wondrous glories of the Demonrats, progressives and even communists. Raising kids properly requires serious parental attention which takes time away from keeping ourselves amused.
How many kids (prodded by "educators") are "discovering their inner LGBTQ and how conservatives (according to the "educators") just don't want them to have fun or indeed want them to live a life of "persecution" staved off only by those brave and noble progressives who are committed to guaranteeing the rights of perverts? How many girls are taken to abortion mills on the sly by public school authoristies with guarantees that mom and dad will NEVER know?
Add in feminism, anti-American foreign policy propaganda (war is just toooooo much trouble), the ethnic grievance industry, envirowhackois, "green" everything, the notion that conservatives want to shoot Bambi, and most of the other crap that fills the lamestream media day in and day out and you have an effective prescription for the destruction of our nation and our civilization.
A lot of black people have God at the center of their lives, a lot of Hispanic people as well. They KNOW what Scripture says about sexual perversion and they well know what God knows about abortion. Many have been seduced and bought by the welfare state politics of the Demonrats, who are now toying with "free" college indoctrination for everyone and payoffs of crushing student loans. You may or may not have liked W but surely he was right in pointing out "the racism of low expectations." Paying them off to sit down and shut up in squalor is a Demonrat policy and should not be ours.
As Mafia dons have traditionally observed: Business makes business. Jack the price of college to the sky to fatten beyond the dreams of avarice the paychecks and perks of the reliably Demonrat privileged class of oh sooooo politically correct professors and administrators. When the kiddies realize that they are enslaved for life paying off the exorbitant (and unbankruptable) student loans, offer relief from taxpayers of some or all of the debt. Thank you Comrade Bernie!
The Demonrat Party dedicated to nothing more than the postponement of reckoning for their reckless policies since 1972! Or was that 1963? Or maybe 1932? Whatever. At least they know that their theoretical opponents in the GOP don't have the guts to upset their apple cart. Maybe that is why they FEAR Trump who has a real education in economics at Wharton School of Finance and has spent his life effectively practicing capitalism in spite of the corrupt politically created obstacles that ensure nothing more than payoffs to useless bureaucrats. Maybe Trump waited to run until he was 70 (next month) because he wanted to practice capitalism and then do something significant to save it.
The jaded country club white shoe set are just too sophisticated for that or to recruit blacks and Hispanics on that basis or even on a basis of selling the wisdom of modest capitalism to them.
After all, the country clubbers have left that embarrassing God business behind. They are their own gods. The country clubbers are just socially uncomfortable around people who are not, well, very much like themselves, especially "bitter clingers."
There just are not enough spoiled country club brats and trust fund babies to win POTUS elections any more. THAT is a reason for grass roots revolt in the GOP or, if need be, creation of a permanent third party structure to destroy the GOP.
One thing is for sure. We cannot keep on doing nothing and being nothing but a party of big business and trust funds uber alles and a leadership that lies about everything else to gull the peasants. If THAT is not the reality revealed by Trump's hostile takeover of the GOP with the enthusiastic support of millions of grassroots Republicans, what is?
Really? Overwhelmingly? What nice adjectives you use.
Polls are overwhelmingly correct.
You're repeating yourself. Is that to convince me or console yourself.
Article, after article, after...
Trump will be lucky to get 30% of Hispanics and that will be a good accomplishment, too. Nothing to complain about getting 3 out of 10 Hispanics.
Agree completely! Very well written...thank you.
Hammer meets nail! Hardly could I add anything. Thank you, Black Elk. God bless you, your health, and your family.
You're repeating yourself...again. Is that to convince me or console yourself?
I agree. She will be lucky to crack 90%, and that’s with a depressed black turnout compared to Obama.
Candidates have their own pollsters and they also spend millions on them. If the polls were meaningless, they wouldn't spend money on them, either. As you know, Trump finally hired his first pollster - to - conduct polls. How about that? Even Trump must have confidence in polls.
We need to constantly remind black folks of how poorly they have fared under Obama’s and Clinton’s administrations. They really have done poorly. It shouldn’t take a lot of effort to point it out. I think this whole bathroom issue can be turned around on them too. They’re counting on the woman’s vote but they’re encouraging perverted men to hang out in women’s restrooms? How is that serving the interests of women? I don’t think it would be too hard to turn a lot of women who really ought to be pissed off about this.
Just because 'everyone does it' I'm supposed to believe in the accuracy and validity of polls?
Just...WOW!
I just don’t think they will be motivated to get out for Hillary, even if she picks a black or hispanic VP, which she obviously will. Trump will have some appeal for blacks on immigration, and just plain speaking his mind. If he gets 10% of the black vote, she cannot win. She is such a horrible candidate, I’m shocked that we aren’t stuck with her, and some “conservatives” seem to be taking that to heart.
Polls are good and accurate and have proven themselves countless times.
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