Posted on 06/24/2016 8:30:32 AM PDT by LS
538 has an article in the NYTimes today defending polling...
People are more rational than ‘identity’ polling assumes. The racist support for Obama being an aberration. It’s an easy metric to use, so pollsters concentrate on it and blow it out of proportion.
It’s also a ‘politically correct’ bias to concentrate on ‘identity’.
Early polls have never been of much use. They represent the media’s framing of the issues and candidates before the candidates and voters have opportunity to do their own framing.
Yea, like the 11% of morons that say they’ll vote for Gary Johnson. If he gets more than 2% of the vote and run down main street butt naked.
12-point error? Nope.
12-point, “Scare-err”...there, fixed.
Yeah, the push pollers tried to scare them.
They will do it here, too. Get ready.
Nobody uses land lines anymore. Nobody.
We keep coming back to whether this is genuine “push polling” or simply such horrible polling methods that they are just incompetent fools.
I lie to pollsters. I believe many do, even overseas.
Fear of being harassed by people on the other side, most likely causes this.
But once inside the voting booth, nobody but you and God know how you voted............................
Gallup exited the polling business because its impossible to take a genuinely unbiased poll anymore.
UK polls showed REMAIN ahead or tied.
It lost by four points.
In the UK the “Bradley Effect” is the “Shy Tory Factor”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor
Give the pollster the PC answer and he/she goes away...:^)
Just another example of how the polls are utter lies these days, and always skew in the liberal direction.
My rule of thumb is that you can subtract 5 to 10 percent from the liberal side of any poll’s figures. I call it the “Nudge Factor.”
Right!
UK polling has had a very bad run of late, they got the Scottish referendum, the last General Election, and now the Brexit votes very wrong.
As for the US, IIRC the polls have been closer, and final polls a day or so before and election have generally close to the mark, but with some significant failures as well.
Polling in June is only useful in identifying and tracking trends as the campaign heats up. It is less than useful for projecting winners and losers in a close election.
I would lie to a pollster just for the sheer principle.
I so remember the night of the 1980 election - RAther and the rest all claiming the polls showing that Reagan would lose 2 to 1. It’s a strategy they use - knowing people like to vote for a winner - AND that a lot, hearing their side is loosing - won’t bother to go vote. This has worked more than once...
The vote did go 2 to 1 - for FOR Reagan.
I remember, with glee - the look on all those faces on election day.
The media starts to believe their own lying spin, and then they are actually surprised when their spin is 180 degrees wrong.
They lie to you; you lie to them.
I bring this up because my own analysis of US presidential election polls going back to 1952 shows similar HORRIBLE errors in June polling vs. November---average 9 points off, but when off with a GOP victor, the average was 22 points off.
I think it’s best not to take off that 5 or 10% as it helps compensate for the voting fraud the Left is able to get away with.
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