Posted on 06/24/2016 8:30:32 AM PDT by LS
We aren't allowed to post UK Independent stuff due to "copyright" concerns, but the Independent story on 6/23, "EU referendum polls: Final ComRes poll shows significant lead for Remain" shows that the "Remain" had an 8-point lead and lost by almost 4---a shocking 12 point margin of error.
I bring this up because my own analysis of US presidential election polls going back to 1952 shows similar HORRIBLE errors in June polling vs. November---average 9 points off, but when off with a GOP victor, the average was 22 points off.
Hillary better be getting that pardon lined up.
The polls can’t be wrong!
Yup. Even Nigel Farage said it would be “Remain” by a narrow margin yesterday afternoon (our time).
Especially in UK, the pollsters need a new dart board - the old worn out one currently being used has fuzzy numbers.
Trump will have the same effect. Under poll.
People lie to pollsters. Get in the booth, they vote their gut.
Trump is a ‘go with your gut’ vote for sure.
Poll numbers can be rigged and clearly the MSM has an agenda to depress anti-Hillary voter turnout.
They’re called “push polls” for a reason.
Imagine that... the polls are good for $h!t....
Someone send this to the GOP.
Pray America wakes
I heard a report from Britain last night that people were saying the pollsters were aggressive, and tugging at people to indicate a preference for “stay”, so people went along and said “Yep, fine, I’m for stay” and then went out and voted to LEAVE.
Nice.
LOL!!
I saw that Farage denied making that comment.
Lie to a pollster.
It’s the most fun you’re ever liable to have with your pants on.
I think the BRexit vote parallels a Trump phenomenon as well. HuffPost averages showed an essential tie the day of and an ultimate 4 point BRexit win. I am sure many UK voters felt “ashamed” to say to pollsters that they were for BRexit. I believe that Trump’s support is similarly understated here. I’m not an unskewed polls guy, but reasonable analysis would dictate that Trump is not at 40% either. More likely Trump support is currently understated 3-5% in polling. Similar to his underpolling in the primaries.
They weere wrong starting with the Israeli election and have continued from there!
TRUMP LANDSLIDE!!!
Daily Mirror says he took it back, not that he denied it.
That’s the problem right there - they were asking Poles, not Britains. ;-)
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