No, The Polls Aren’t Biased. Clinton Really Is Leading Trump

The Federalist ^ | June 24, 2016 | Emily Ekins

[Maceman]

The conservative blogosphere is lighting up again with accusations of polling bias against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in his race against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. However, Trump supporters should avoid giving into this temptation to assume unfavorable results must be biased results. Clinton really is leading Trump, and by nearly 6 percentage points.

The blogospherian argument goes something like this: Clinton is leading Trump by 5 to 7 points in certain polls because the pollsters oversampled or over-weighted Democrats by about 5 to 7 points. If the polls are “corrected” to include fewer Democrats then the race is actually tied, they say.

For instance, one blogger argues that a recent CBS News poll inflated the number of Democrats in the poll, comprised of 28 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. Citing one pollster’s calculation, she thinks party identification in the United States is closer to parity, with 28 percent Republicans and only 29 percent Democrats rather than a seven-point Democratic advantage. She reasons that if you erase the partisan gap that would erase Clinton’s six-point lead over Trump.

For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.

[bgill]

I don’t. But then I’m not friends with liberal headed ninnies.

[sourcery]

It’s a fundamental error to assume that the probability that a poll respondent will vote is independent of the respondent’s party affiliation.

There are sound and convincing reasons to believe that Republicans and Independents are more likely to vote this year. And that the difference is not trivial.

[taildragger]

"My suspicion is that Hillary is not going to be able to turn out the yute and minority vote as much as Obama."

My guess is they were rolling our Fauxcahauntus today to see how she would do with the Yutes since they have given Bernie the Shaft. My guess is they know that they will loose them and are desperate to get them back as Trump makes a bid for them. Now not to hi-jac the thread but...

Can you imagine this "Senator" below debating her Fauxness from the People Socialist Republik of Taxachuetts? It would be good, as this guy will get the Yute vote IMHO..

The Case for Rand Paul as Trump's VP

Follow me on this...

* Trump needs to get things through the House and Senate.
* With Newt as Chief of Staff, he can work Bills through the House with him.
* And with Paul as Presiding over the Senate he has got a contact with the Senate to maneuver through that mind field.
* More So...
* IMHO Mitch McConnell owes Rand.....
* Say what you will about Matt Bevin as a Senate Candidate, he is the Gov. now, and is not to be taken lightly IMHO. Without Rand endorsing McConnell it might have been Senator Bevin.
* As a Fellow Freeper noted they have seen Sanders and Paul bumper stickers on cars in College / Liberal areas.
* FWIW, the Bernsters are not going to pull the lever for Kim Jong Shrill.
* As someone who is around kids I have noted the Millennial interest in Rand and I think he could swing a number of disaffected Bernie Voters to Trump, they like him he has got that Uncandidate Hipster thing going on and they dig it.

Three other things....

* Rand bowed out early with grace. and gave an unequivocal 100% Endorsement of Donald Trump
* Rand is also deemed as an outsider, he is an "insurance policy" that the ticket will not cave to the establishment
* And he was the only one to talk about cutting government and the debt, something that Trump around the edges has noted.

Sounds like a winner to me

[Grampa Dave]

Adios to another Tokyo Rose/concerned troll!

[Grampa Dave]

“Looking for citation.......

Can’t find one, but lecture away, Mr blogger.

Are we having fun with the concerned trolls today?

[MinuteGal]

Hitlery got an expected bump after Bernie, to all extents and purposes, has been out of the game the past ten days.

Never fear...it won't last.

Leni

[Grampa Dave]

If it is over, why waste your time convincing us that it is ovefr!

[amihow]

No one like you ever gets me to go away. Only Mr.Robinson can do that. I just lost respect for you and your opinions. Thanks

[Bridesheadfan]

I think Trump is behind, but not by as much as the ABC poll. Maybe by 4 or 5 points, as other polls indicate. It’s a long way to November, and don’t forget that the Brexit polls were way off. Turnout will be the key.

[Homer1]

In 2012, the D get out the vote machine was vastly superior to whatever Romney was using....by hook or by crook they will get a decent chunk of their voters to show up...

[Grampa Dave]

Good. I don’t need kudos from backstabbers like you!

[Grampa Dave]

June 25, 2016

Brexit: Yet another example of biased polling
By Sierra Rayne

For the weak-minded among us who continue to believe in polling data, the Brexit vote shows – yet again – what a biased absurdity the polls have become.

But delusions and obfuscation runs deep in the mainstream trenches.

Nate Cohn at the New York Times writes that “[i]t was not a cataclysmic polling failure[.] ... [I]t’s hard to argue that this was a big polling failure.”

Sure it wasn’t. Once you are done rolling around on the floor in laughter at claims that this wasn’t a massive polling failure, read on.

To review, the Brexit side won by 4%, 52% to 48%.
Not a single one of the well known polling aggregators/predictors picked Brexit in their last-minute final projections:

Elections Etc. had the Remain side up by 6.6%, 53.3% to 46.7%.

Number Cruncher Politics had the Remain side up by 6%, 53% to 47%.

What UK Thinks: EU had the Remain side up by 4%, 52% to 48%.
The Financial Times had the Remain side up by 2%, 48% to 46%.

Britain Elects had the Remain side up by 1.6%, 50.8% to 49.2%.

HuffPost Pollster had the Remain side up by 0.5%, 45.8% to 45.3%.

The Economist’s poll tracker had the race tied at 44% apiece.

Excerpt: go to the link to find out how devious, the pollster liars are today, and their internet trolls posting their garbage as why Brexit would lose and Trump will lose, like they said BRexit was a goner!

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/brexit_yet_another_example_of_biased_polling.html

[pfflier]

It was a much more dynamic time then. People said what they thought and most of the interchanges were thoughtful and respectful of any differences. There were lively discussions, I'll give you that.

Now there seem to be more trolls that just like to slam posters for not agreeing with them. There are some who have tantrums when you disagree with their choices of presidential candidates. Then there are the grammar police...

[VanDeKoik]

Good lord have they been thicker than the mosquitoes here in Michigan today! LOL!

[COBOL2Java]

No one like you ever gets me to go away. Only Mr.Robinson can do that. I just lost respect for you and your opinions. Thanks

Oh noes, GD! You're on her iggy list!

[Grampa Dave]

Clintoon must be paying extra posting bonuses to them to push and defend her biased polls.

I guess we should be glad that they are so concerned about Trump getting beat in their set up push polls.

Nah!

[COBOL2Java]

Are we having fun with the concerned trolls today?

They are everywhere!

[VanDeKoik]

Oh so THAT explains why they are showing up today.

[COBOL2Java]

Clintoon must be paying extra posting bonuses to them to push and defend her biased polls.

I guess we should be glad that they are so concerned about Trump getting beat in their set up push polls.

Nah!

---

Endless entertainment for us...

[Grampa Dave]

"Oh noes, GD! You're on her iggy list!" Oh no, Omg, Ooh

What is they do to you if you are an iggy on facebook or Tweet or whatever!