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TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today.
Twitter ^ | July 25, 2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 07/25/2016 6:19:51 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist

Who will win the presidency?

(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; polls; silver; trump
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To: Simon Foxx

I took the light red as “leaning” meaning not a certainty. Am I reading this wrong?


41 posted on 07/25/2016 7:01:04 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: BlueStateRightist

He still projects Hillary to win in November.


42 posted on 07/25/2016 7:02:20 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: BlueStateRightist

Get ready world. America will not stay on the back seat much longer. No more bowing to foreign kings, no more corruption of the DoJ and FBI, time to clean house!!!


43 posted on 07/25/2016 7:02:45 AM PDT by Uncle Sam 911
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To: goldstategop

It doesn’t really matter if she ACTUALLY gets a bounce or not, the drivebys will say she did with phoney polls and other made-up BS.

They need to do so to stop the hemorrhaging.

As the DNCLeaks show; they’ll do anything, say anything to win, and the drivebys are eager to help.


44 posted on 07/25/2016 7:02:54 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: BlueStateRightist
The DNC email release from WikiLeaks is doing in the Clintons. And frankly, the very reason why this is happening is because President Obama--with the backing of a huge fraction of the Democratic Party--wants her out post haste (many Democratic members of Congress clearly know her downsides).
45 posted on 07/25/2016 7:02:57 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's Economic Cure)
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To: LS

Leaners are the same for both and leaners will go with the winner.


46 posted on 07/25/2016 7:03:20 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: goldstategop

“She’ll get no bounce to a small bounce.”

In truth you are probably correct but she will get any bump the media thinks it can get away with claiming she got from the convention.


47 posted on 07/25/2016 7:05:19 AM PDT by billyboy15
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To: BlueStateRightist
Wikileaks is beautiful. It will continually undermine the MSM’s attempts to derail Trump.

While being holed up in an embassy for 3 years is more appealing than being murdered, I suppose it is getting old.

48 posted on 07/25/2016 7:06:05 AM PDT by 03A3 (The reset is gonna be epic.)
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To: 9YearLurker

Of course he does - because Silver assumes the Trump lead will disappear next week.

If it does, its back its back to normal as usual. That’s what every one is assuming once the freak show ends later this week.

The more interesting question is what happens if Trump keeps or expands his lead.

No one knows.


49 posted on 07/25/2016 7:06:49 AM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: InterceptPoint

O.M.G.


50 posted on 07/25/2016 7:09:21 AM PDT by Baldwin77 (They hated Reagan too ! TRUMP TOUGH - AMERICA STRONG)
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To: BlueStateRightist

BOOM !


51 posted on 07/25/2016 7:10:12 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: 9YearLurker

Probably. She’ll be the “comeback kid”.


52 posted on 07/25/2016 7:10:29 AM PDT by Baldwin77 (They hated Reagan too ! TRUMP TOUGH - AMERICA STRONG)
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To: BlueStateRightist

I predict vote fraud on a massive scale.

Entire precincts voting 100% for Her Thighness and not a single vote for Trump. Phony paper ballots delivered by 18-wheelers. Voting machines that give the final count of the day at 7 a.m.

The vote fraud this year will be YUGE. Unless we fight back. Stopping all buses from crossing state lines would be a nice start. Requiring ID from voters, court rulings be damned, would also be helpful.


53 posted on 07/25/2016 7:11:18 AM PDT by DNME (The only solution to a BAD GUY with a gun is a GOOD GUY with a gun.)
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To: goldstategop

I guess I still don’t get it. If PA FL IA and OH are “leaning” Trump, his odds should be over 90%.


54 posted on 07/25/2016 7:16:08 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: mac_truck

What is wrong with Colorado? I get that Virginia is being flooded with Washington liberals. But what in the world is causing Colorado to be so blue in a sea of red?


55 posted on 07/25/2016 7:16:32 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: BlueStateRightist

The funny part will be the breathless question all the MSM will be asking, “Does Hillary have a path to he White House?”


56 posted on 07/25/2016 7:16:40 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: LS

57.5% is the rated chance that the current situation will stay the same, or a similar situation will develop, so that Trump wins on election day.

Obviously if the map stays static, it’s a 100% chance for a Trump win. But that’s not how polling and statistical analysis works.


57 posted on 07/25/2016 7:28:51 AM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (www.wilsonharpbooks.com - Sign up for my new release e-mail and get my first novel for free)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

The Californication of Colorado. Lots and lots of California refugees have fled their state and headed to Colorado, bringing their same voting habits with them.


58 posted on 07/25/2016 7:30:09 AM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (www.wilsonharpbooks.com - Sign up for my new release e-mail and get my first novel for free)
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To: BlueStateRightist

Barry and Valerie still control the strings.

If she goes down by 10 or more points in the polling even after the Dem convention bounce, they could have Loretta gin up an indictment on the Clinton Foundation pay-to-play and substitute Biden/Warren for Clinton/Kaine.


59 posted on 07/25/2016 7:32:22 AM PDT by Meet the New Boss
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To: BlueStateRightist

Democrats have to be sitting around like we were in 2008 wondering who voted for McCain. “I didn’t. Did you?”


60 posted on 07/25/2016 7:32:44 AM PDT by IamConservative (Hillary walks while 100's of teens get prosecuted for mishandling Miley Cyrus MP3's..)
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