Posted on 08/07/2016 8:20:26 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
Clinton posted her highest poll numbers in months last week, clutching a 9-point lead over rival Donald Trump, according to Morning Consult’s latest poll.
Almost half (46 percent) of registered voters surveyed Aug. 4-5 (46 percent) said they would choose Clinton, the Democratic nominee, if the presidential election were to be held now. Trump, the Republican nominee, is still the choice for 37 percent of voters, down from 40 percent in late July and 44 percent immediately following the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
Trump lost a few points among independent voters, who have remain stubbornly divided in thirds — roughly one-third for Trump, one-third for Clinton, one-third undecided — for months. But over the course of the past week, the independent supporters of Trump dropped from 38 percent to 34 percent. Another 34 percent of independents now say they support Clinton, up from 32 percent a week earlier. Independents who are undecided increased from 30 percent in late July to 32 percent in Morning Consult’s most recent poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at morningconsult.com ...
Clinton is at 46, but can’t fill up her events.
Trump is at 37 and has thousands of overflow people at every event.
Hmmmm...
So much B. S. floating around these days. I’m not buying any of it.
Media 46 Trump 37 Don’t Know 18 Hilliary 0
Noooo.... Polls aren’t showing that
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Flux these polls as they are all over the place with wild fluctuations.
Reuters Baffled As Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates
Time Magazine Image, Reuters Graphics, RealClearPolitics on zero hedge ^ | 6AUG16 | Reuters, RealClearPolitics copied by Tyler Durden
Posted on 8/6/2016, 10:33:44 PM by vannrox
Reuters Baffled As Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates
Tyler Durden’s picture
by Tyler Durden
Aug 6, 2016 2:55 PM
0
SHARES
We’re gonna need another polling methodology ‘tweak’...
Having seen her poll numbers suddenly explode higher (and Trump’s collapse) following Reuters’ decision to tweak its polling methodology, it appears we just witnessed ‘Peak Hillary’ as Reuters reports Clinton’s lead over Trump has tumbled back to just 3 points (the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points) meaning, as Reuters is forced to admit, that the results suggest the race is roughly even...
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump’s 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.
Reuters tweaked data shows Hillary’s lead has peaked...
Reuters subtly points out the folly of their survey respondents...
Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.
Since then, Trump has engaged in a days-long feud with the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq and squabbled with the Republican leadership over his comments and leadership turmoil within his campaign.
But as RealClearPolitics’ aggregated data shows, the swings are dramatic to say the least...
The noise in these polling numbers is incredible and prompted MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock to take a caustic look at the prognostications of the web’s forecasters... Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and Author of Moods and Markets asked an interesting question today: “Have we reached peak Hillary yet?”
In Atwater’s tweet, he posted a flashback to this January 2014 Time Magazine cover.
Time Hillary
The answer to the question “Can anyone stop Hillary?” is pretty obvious: Yes, Trump can easily win if he can ever learn to control his mouth (a recession hits or some dirt that matters comes out on Hillary that matters).
Ridiculous Forecasts
I watch with amusement as Nate Silver posts his ridiculous forecasts on the Presidential Election Odds.
Silver Odds 2016-08-04
Rest assured, Hillary does not have a 79% chance of winning.
Silver Odds 2016-08-04A
Pure Idiocy
Supposedly, Hillary has a 79.9% chance of winning in November as of today.
Supposedly, Trump had a 50.1% chance of winning in November on July 31, just four days ago!
Supposedly, Hillary had a 77.4% chance of winning in November on July 12.
This is pure idiocy.
Silver is clearly taking the news of the day and projecting it out to November when voters clearly have a time span of about three days.
How Silver can look himself in a mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.
Social Mood
Atwater had a second tweet today that is quite interesting...
It says a lot about current social mood when a modest rise in people’s level of happiness can upend a candidate. pic.twitter.com/Us4EFpYV3I
— Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) August 4, 2016
Social Mood is clearly in control here.
Silver is totally clueless about what social mood will be in November, just as he was totally clueless about social mood the entire Republican nomination process.
* * *
We leave it to Reuters themselves to conclude with their thoughts on the drop in Hillary’s support and revival of Trump...
The reasons behind the shift were unclear.
Unclear indeed.
Latest poll from My Neighborhood: Lock her up! 99%; Elect her <1%; Undecided 1%
I could not seem to find the internals. Is this yet another one that tends to oversample Democrats yet again? The one thing that still strikes me is that she can’t seem to get any better than low to mid 40s. Am I alone in this observation?
ONE sure poll: November 8, 2016
All bogus; look for FR thread that explains the bogus polls.
Consolidates, my A$$.
And who is taking all of these polls. First Hillary is way up the next dat Trump is way up. They’re all bullshit and made up. Everybody knows they are trying ti rig the election by saying that Hillary is way up when in reality she is way behind Trump. Nobody likes her and nobody wants her except for homosexuals like herself and people with their hands out asking for free stuff. This country is on a death spiral.
I can get into the crosstabs, but cannot find % of D/R voters.
48% disapprove of Obama, 70% think country is in wrong direction.
This one was weird: 59% said they hadn’t heard of Trump/no opinion one way or the others??? But they do so many subsamples it’s hard to determine.
No way with that 70% wrong direction (another question was like “completely off course”) that Cankles leads.
Yep...It’s all over...You libs don’t have to bother getting up to vote...Hillary by a landslide...Y’all can stay home and play with your..........whatever on election day, Nov 9th, 2016...
to me
http://freedomoutpost.com/dnc-insider-clinton-being-pounded-in-polls-dont-believe-mainstream-media/
We spoke to a source who works at Nate Silver’s political advocacy group fivethirtyeight.com.
RealTrueNews: “Is it fair to say that Silver is worried?”
538 Source: “In a panic. Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election. Right now? It’s a disaster.”
RTN: “So what are you doing?”
538: “Well, we’re changing the model for starters. There were a few hours when the server was showing the real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically.”
RTN: “What do you mean?”
538: “Well, Nate’s a liberal. No secret there. When he saw what was happening he flipped out. Had us look for bugs–something gone wrong–looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed. Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys–”
RTN:”Wait–embedded?”
538: “Huh? Oh, yeah–it’s a big social club. The pollsters all work together. We have a Slack-room that’s sharing all kinds of results and skews and all that. That’s how we keep it all orderly.”
RTN: “Orderly?”
538: “Sure–what? You think it’s . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results. You’re buying media. It’s like ads or . . . I don’t know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want.”
RTN: “But what about on election day?”
538: “Oh–we drive it. You set the expectations ahead of time. It’s called pre-loading. You’d be surprised how we can fine-tune things. Mass belief is powerful. The problem here is (a) not everyone plays nice. Fox is rogue. Rasmussen was . . . bad. They were doing real polling. Also, there’s like a game of chicken. At the start of the cycle we do real polling so that everyone knows how they better buy in. This time . . . Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big–it came on so fast–Hillary just collapsed.”
RTN:”What–what happens next?”
538: “I don’t know, man. There are a bunch of smaller groups out there doing real polls. I don’t know if anyone can keep this under wraps. They had to talk Silver off the edge of the building yesterday. It was bad.”
RTN: “He was literally going to throw himself out a window?”
538: “Yeah–he was–well, but we’re on the second floor. He was just really pissed. I mean, he got a call from the White House telling him to fix it and shit.”
RTN: “Wow.”
538: “Wow is right.”
LOL!
Are we going to believe these polls, or our own lying eyes?
The numbers for TRUMP are so overwhelming compared to her Soros purchased bus load of handout hounds, at these rallies, the media is now creating an imaginary formula that says “crowds and enthusiasm don’t matter”.
FOX is so bad that their programming reports are now frequently based on what MSNBC and CNN says against TRUMP.
False flags are purchased and US media is lying down and showing it.
TRUMP ROCKS!
is not going to win.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.