Posted on 08/09/2016 8:44:42 AM PDT by baxtelf
We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it all sound like rigorous analysis instead of magical thinking.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Sadly I agree, its simply impractical to think that they are all that far off. Is there time to change? of course... a lot can happen in that time. I sure as hell hope so...
Only if you believe that the pollsters are not trying to create an image to suit their bias. I cannot believe that.
didn’t fivethirtyeight have a very serious credibility problem as trump won primary after primary? primaries this upstart company predicted he would lose?
After the 2012 “skewed polls” hysteria convincing us Romney had it locked up, complete with accompanying “more Romney yard signs” and “packed rallies” I’ve decided to check my poll skepticism at the door. And I donate regularly to the Trump campaign hoping he catches lightning in a bottle.
Isn’t this the same organization that gave Trump virtually no chance to win the nomination and got the mid-terms so wrong?
He certainly showed four years ago that he understands polls a lot better than the people who are “reweighting” the party support and “unskewing” the results.
Isn’t 538 Nate Silver’s clown car?
The debates haven’t even started yet. Support for Cankles is, at best, lukewarm. There is time yet if the campaign gets its act together. No more room for extemporaneous F ups and mice nuts politics. Get that ground game going and energize the base, which do not include the traitor RINOs.
My concern is that we not fool ourselves into a false sense of safety. We need to work hard to make sure Trump wins and patting ourselves on the back is not getting the job done. If there is even a chance they are correct we need to work harder. I’d like to see a few ads from Trump. Here in FL I see 4-5 Clinton ones an hour and none for Trump.
It seems political commentators failed to learn their lesson from the 2012 election. If you recall many pundits and radio commentators were predicting that years polls were wrong-THEY WERE NOT WRONG.
exactly... stop screwing around with the small stuff... go after hellery and her POLICY!!! and Hammer her on it every damn day!
Yeah liberal wimp boy Nate got it wrong 100% of the time ...every time.
Other than to demoralize us, what purpose do threads like this serve?
“...its simply impractical to think that they are all that far off.”
Not really, when you consider the trillions of dollars at stake, and the fact that Trump will likely destroy the existing, corrupted power structure.
It’s not impractical at all, to think they’d do whatever it takes to keep Trump from winning.
The fact they been outed us the reason they spit out more desperate propaganda out .
get back to me when you tab tell why on two polls has it a dead heat and still these polls have their queen up by 15 points!!
who believes any of it when Gallup gave up political polls because they said it was all garbage !
think about it in the world of iphones now .
no data anymore folks
I could not agree more. In 2012 we heard all the same things about the polls, and I saw with my own eyes a wave of enthusiastic support at a Romney rally, including lots of energetic young voters. It seemed impossible that Obama would be reelected.
Well, we couldn’t have been more wrong.
He did have it locked up.
What he didnt count in were a ton of retards that called themselves christians that stayed home because they didnt want to vote for a mormon.
Obamas vote totals were way down from 08. If these people had showed up, it would have been different.
Brexit was losing by something like 9% in the telephone polls the night before it passed by 2% at the ballot box.
No, they didn’t. Their models predicted him winning many States. His one big miss was Bernie in Michigan.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.