Posted on 09/01/2016 12:57:10 PM PDT by Kaslin
The road for Donald Trump to win the White House goes through Pennsylvania. Actually, all roads for Trump winning this election count on him taking the Keystone State and Florida (via Cook Report):
Trump, meanwhile, has only 4 paths to 270 [Clinton has 13]. And, all require winning BOTH Florida and Pennsylvania. The current Real Clear Politics Average of polls has Clinton up by nine points in Pennsylvania and 4.5 points in Florida. Unless and until Trump can turn those numbers around, there is no way he can win the election.
Yet, ever since new revelations about the Clinton Foundation were released last week, the former first lady has taken a nosedive in the polls. It became official when three national polls showed her dipping in support, though Trump still trailed her between five-to-seven points. He’s within striking distance; the Real Clear Politics average has him trailing less than five from all polls taken between the two candidates. At the same time, he’s trailing in states that he needs to win. So, it’s probably welcome news for the Trump team that Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania has almost been cut in half (via The Hill):
Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is down to seven points in the key battleground Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday morning.
Clinton has 47 percent support in the Keystone State, the poll found, with Trump at 40 percent.
The Democratic presidential nominee led by 11 points in the same poll last month, immediately following the Democratic National Convention.
Among registered voters, Clinton's lead drops to four points: 43 to 39 percent.
So, by the metrics, Pennsylvania is getting more competitive, but she’s a cold-hearted—especially with Republicans who haven’t won the state since 1988. It’s become a unicorn of sorts, with the GOP dumping money into the state, only to reap disappointment in the end. Nevertheless, this critical brick in the Democrats’ Northeastern Blue Wall has to be taken by Trump. That being said, perhaps the Trump campaign, fresh off a poll boost with new ammunition to use against Hillary Clinton, should do what Guy wrote about in early August: camp out in Florida and Pennsylvania.
Also, there’s this from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight:
Repeating myself a bit, but people underrate how fragile Clinton's Electoral College advantage will be if the race keeps tightening overall.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 31, 2016
She’s doing terribly and leads by 7? I say BS.
Trump will win FL and OH - my guess is he’ll also take PA.
People are going take a hard look at Hillary and she doesn’t have it.
I mean when all she can do is criticize Trump, she’s not making the case for why she should be elected President.
Trump has her right where he wants her.
Are you saying she leads by more than seven?
Not directed at you, but this is another fallatious premise of an article in that Trump has to win PA. Trump has several paths to the nomination and most do not require PA. However, if PA goes Trump, it’s impossible for Clinton to win.
Wait, it’s only 4 points among registered voters? What did the first poll include, non voters?
If it’s 4 among registered, he’s tied or leads among likely voters.
She’s doing terribly and leads by 7? I say BS
We’ve learned to read between the lies of the Enemy of the People....
Boy what a turkey neck......OMG! LOL
TRUMP-O-RAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PA just sent one crooked conniving Democrat feminist shrew (Kathleen Kane) off to the jailhouse.
Another crooked conniving Democrat feminist shrew (Katie McGinty) is flailing badly in a race against incumbent Pat Toomey who bears the two strikes of being a Wall Street guy AND an attempted gun-grabber.
This is not a good year to be a crooked, conniving Democrat feminist shrew on the Pennsylvania ballot.
That's what I was thinking - she only lost 4 points since the convention?
If true, her hiding out strategy will carry her until the election.
The cacklin bitch is going nowhere but DOWN! ...
True.
“Among registered voters, Clinton’s lead drops to four points: 43 to 39 percent.”
Do they mean it drops to 4 among likely voters?
No way Clinton leads by 7 among likely voters but only 4 among registered voters, has to be the other way around.
Unlike Romney, McCain, Bush, Dole...Trump will gain strength as we reach the end game.
She said, No ... and we continued on.
She was pretty impressed with my knowledge of my own health and near the end of our visit, now more chatting than talking about my health, I made the statement, Well .. I WANT a bull in the china shop and she said Yes, I do too .. I guess it HAS to be Trump
Anecdotally, I have come across "insincere" pro hillary types all over my SW Pa area.
He doesn’t need to win both PA and FL. Bush won twice w/out PA.
Lib college F&M internals here. All 29 pages of it. A snippet below - is this the make up of PA?
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/976089416682518756-f-m-poll-release-august-2016-1.pdf
“RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as
something else?
39% Republican
49% Democrat
10% Independent
3% Something else “
- - - - -
Ah Pennsylvania...I wouldn’t get your hopes to high you all. Its a broken record. Early in the night Trump will be up 500,000 votes and you start feeling good, only to have Philly wipe everything out. I’d love to think things will turn out different this time, but i’m once bitten twice shy.
she looks a little bit like Yoda in that picture IMO, a blonde haired white skinned Yoda.
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