I think, far more than you admit, that many people support Trump but are “Trump shamed “ so they aren’t really vocal or have signs.
Also-—and Trump’s organization is partly to blame—they haven’t been real good about having traditional offices with signs, etc.
Apparently, lawn sign don't make a bit of difference.
I agree, I think Trump easily has 2-3 points of support that are not getting picked up because voters will not tell pollsters they intend to vote for him... last poll I saw showed 17% of registered republicans would not tell pollsters who they intended to vote for, and 10% of registered democrats as well refused to say...
the 17% of repulicans if most intend to vote Trump would be around 3-4%... which is right about where I believe Trump’s Bradley effect support is.. the 10% dems... well if Trump gets more of those than Hillary does... its more net game for him as well.
When you also take into effect that Trump is going to get disenfranchised voters, people who haven’t voted in several cycles... people who most polls will filter out as unlikely when they do their analysis, I think trump has another 1-2% at least there... so on average, I suspect Trump’s support is generally 4-5% higher than most polls are showing.
I believe you will see those unwilling to say they are voting for Trump begin to admit to it, as it becomes clear he is winning.. not all, but more of them will start to admit it and his numbers will go up... and as his numbers go up... they will start to go up more as more people are willing to openly admit they support him.
I expect Trump support to start to KNEE (bend substantially upward) right around the time of the first debate... a little bit before perhaps... and if he comes out of the debate looking reasonable... then you wills start to see floodgates open.
The difference in polling due to shy voters is one thing.
I see a much bigger difference in voter energy. The 10,000+ Trump supporters who broke all time attendance record at the Xfinity arena a week ago plus the 5000+ who get not get in time, will walk through broken glass to vote. On the other hand, 10-15% of voters polling for Hillary are not going to bother voting if it is raining, cold, or any other excuse.
I have Trump bumper stickers but won’t put them on my car for fear of getting keyed or some other damage.
12-13% independents were polled. Since Trump leads Mrs Cosby by 20+ this erases any lead.
5 independents were polled.