WE’ll know on Nov. 8. The real poll will be on how many of theirs don’t show up. Which Senate seat will WE STEAL? We’re too dumb to win Colorado but Nevada is not good enough.
The headline writer can’t do math, and so makes a situation which is problematic for the poll . By the article’s own numbers, Democrats were indeed oversampled, but by 9 points, which translates into 41%, not by 141%. This was at the expense of independents and other, rather than Republicans, so it likely amounts to a 5 or 6 point difference—still enough to make a small Pub lead turn into a small Dem lead, but not enough to say that Trump is far ahead.
About 6% of Americans USED TO believe what the LSM told them. That was BEFORE this campaign season! Gotta wonder why they continue to push lies when maybe 2% believe them....is it worth it?
Bezos hates Trump.
A 14% Rat oversample and they still only managed to get a 5% lead?
Make that a 40% oversample.
Nonsense, Reagan had that election all the way. They were just gaming the polls as long as they possibly could so that they could demoralize the Reagan vote and discourage Democrats from crossing over.
If you look at the internals, you have to laugh. D+10? Even in 2012, Obama won with D+6 turnout. They will be lucky to see D+2 this go around.
Trump is also killing it among Independents. He's 20 points up among Independents in the recent Gallup poll. That's already 15 points better than how Romney did among them in 2012. That alone practically ensures a Trump victory. Add in the Democrat crossover, an energized GOP turnout and a depressed Democrat turnout (as we saw in the primaries) and you have your landslide.
She may be rising in the polls again. The sympathy vote is totally irrational and very strong among women and some men.
Shhhhh... they are making a mistake by doing so.... and I’ll not reveal the consequence.
If we take the 93% certain to vote for Republicans and 80% certain to vote for Democrats and guesstimate that means exactly 93% of the 26% of the electorate that are registered Republicans will vote, and exactly 80% of the 29% who are Democrats, this would mean about 4% more Republicans than Democrats would vote (which would translate very roughly to about a 1% to 1.5% advantage in total popular vote--depending on ratio of Republicans and Democrats to others voting).
These are rough assumptions, but the picture is very good for Trump if one considers he seems to consistently lead among independents. But I have also seen numbers suggesting he might not do as well among Republicans as Hillary does among Democrats...although I think the difference is not as strong as the difference in independents.
My guess is that if the election were somehow today, Trump would win. But I suspect on November 8 he will win by a wider margin than he would today. My suspicion (which I have had for months) is that Hillary would poll mostly ahead until the debates when she would collapse and Trump would win in a landslide. As far as I can tell my suspicions have played out pretty well so far...
The odds of anyone of us trusting the Washington Post or ABC News is ZERO. I mean George Stephanopoulos RAN THE CLINTON WAR ROOM FOR BILL CLINTON. It’s beyond being ‘in the tank’ for Clinton - Stephanopoulos IS THE TANK....
This poll is all over mid-day Fox News, the anti-Trump hours.
This poll also had a 4.5% MOE even with the oversampling. IOW, the 5 point lead was barely outside the MOE.
It also says that when a phone was answered it immediately asked to speak to the youngest member of the household. Presumably that means youngest voting aged person, but it doesn’t really say that. Maybe they’re using the youngest member to report the behavior of the other members of the household.
It all is so bizarre.
BTW, new Utah poll out. Safe for Trump 39-24.