Posted on 09/25/2016 6:59:14 AM PDT by usafa92
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point among likely voters who were polled a few days ahead of the much-anticipated debate between the two presidential candidates. The debate will take place Monday evening.
The ratings for the televised matchup between the two candidates are expected to be at record highs. Two-thirds of registered voters say they expect to watch the debate, with 41 percent saying they are “very likely” to watch it.
In a nationwide poll of 1,712 likely voters taken Sept. 22 through Sept. 24, 39 percent of respondents chose Trump, while while Clinton was the choice for 38 percent. The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of error. The other candidates in the race continue to trail behind the leaders, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent; 10 percent of respondents say they don’t know or have no opinion.
In a head-to-head matchup without the third-party candidates, Clinton edges out Trump by 2 points among likely voters, 44 percent to 42 percent, within the margin of error.
Among the slightly broader sample of registered voters, Clinton has a 1-point lead over Trump, 37 percent to 36 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent. Again, the difference between Trump and Clinton is within the margin of error.
Trump maintains his considerable lead among white likely voters, with 44 percent saying they prefer him, while 33 percent are in Clinton’s camp. Hispanics (54 percent) and African American likely voters (75 percent) are overwhelmingly for Clinton. Only 20 percent of Hispanics and 7 percent of black likely voters say they intend to vote for Trump.
When it comes to the televised debates, which can make or break a presidential campaign, respondents are evenly split between who they think will win the first one. (There are two more Clinton-Trump debates and one vice presidential debate in October.)
Almost three out of 10 registered voters (29 percent) say Trump will win on Monday, while 36 percent predict that Clinton will emerge triumphant. Tellingly, 35 percent don’t know or have no opinion.
Still, half of voters say the debates will be at least somewhat important in how they vote in November, signaling how much is at stake with each candidate’s performance. About one-fourth of voters (23 percent) say the debates will be not important at all in their choice at the ballot box.
Independent voters have a less strong opinion about the debates, suggesting that the TV events be more important in terms of shoring up commitment from party affiliates than winning over undecided voters. Independents are less likely to watch Monday’s debate than either Republicans or Democrats; 54 percent of independents say they expect to watch, while 75 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats plan to tune in.
Twice as many independents (25 percent) say they are “not at all likely” to watch Monday’s debate than Republicans (13 percent) or Democrats (12 percent).
Half of independent voters also don’t have a prediction about who will win the debate. Those who do have an opinion are evenly split between Clinton (25 percent) and Trump (25 percent).
Independent voters are far less likely to say that the debates will be “very important” in their decision at the ballot box. Only 18 percent of independents say the four debates will make a major difference in their decision, compared with 31 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Republicans.
Many voters are tuning in to Monday’s debate to cheer on their chosen candidate, and they fully expect their choice to emerge the winner. Almost one-fourth of Clinton supporters (73 percent) say she will best Trump on Monday, while 67 percent of Trump supporters say the New York businessman will outperform Clinton. Fewer self-identified Republicans (57 percent) predict that Trump will win the debate, while 69 percent of Democrats say Clinton will win.
Even though both Johnson and Stein haven’t performed well enough in the polls to warrant a place on the national debate stage, voters still say they should have a chance to address a national audience. Half of registered voters say Johnson should debate alongside Clinton and Trump on Monday, and 45 percent say Stein should have a spot on the dais.
The national Morning Consult survey polled 1,953 registered voters and 1,712 likely voters for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for both samples. Likely voters: toplines and crosstabs. Registered voters: toplines and crosstabs.
Here’s last night’s Dornsife/USC Poll:
I have to wonder if the American Voter’s brain has turned to mush?
Trump is trending up in all the recent polls. The Cruz endorsement probably helped.
Great News! One point that needs to get out there. If Hillary is elected, she may nominate Obama for Supreme Court. I wouldn’t put it past her / Bill that there was an agreement made with the AG - No charges for Hillary - Nominate Obama for SC if elected.
Half of voter’s brains are mush, by design.
However, great news here with Trump ahead in this poll (unless I’m missing something). Thanks for the link.
“However, great news here with Trump ahead in this poll (unless I’m missing something). Thanks for the link.”
I guess when you look at the scale of the data that Dornsife is publishing it shouldn’t be a surprise at the “jitter,” but just the mere fact that the two lines aren’t diverging and not coming back closer together leaves me wondering just what’s between the ears of a lot of Americans today.
Thanks for the post. Wish I could see the internals, but you need a login...
I have one but the formatting doesn’t translate on the iPad. I have to check on the Mac. I’ll check on that in a bit.
In which alternative universe would the polling not be a propaganda tool for the journo-political leftist conspiracy? They’re virtually even? Really? What do we see with our own eyes? The polling we are seeing is the best evidence that Trump will win big. They’re fudging, skewing, ok, lying, to make it seem Hillary has a chance, IMHO.
Landslide coming. Previous presidential election models no longer operative. Even Mitt’s 47% are disillusioned and apathetic about Hillary. Turnout verve favors Trump. By a lot.
The story of the election will be how traditional Dem constituencies simply stayed home, and those who used to stay home showed up in droves to vote for change. Monster vote, yep.
Uh oh. They’re going to try to paint Hillary as the scrappy underdog going into the debate and say that it’s all big-dog Trump’s to lose.
Trump had widened his lead outside the area of uncertainty in the aftermath of the 9/11 video, but lost ground. Now, it's widening again.
If the trend continues, Trump will have achieved this three times since July. Clinton only did it once, right after the Democrat convention.
Given how the media has been pounding Trump at the orders of the Clinton campaign, I think there are still a lot of people that refuse to admit they support Trump, but will quietly vote for him.
This is the 1980 election all over again. The only thing missing is the hostages in Iran.
Good comparison. We don't have American hostages being held in Iran, true. But Americans do have the details of her e-mail scandal and 25 years of Clinton malfeasance and shenanigans.
I understand. I have mush-brained relatives who voted for zero for the material stuff he promised - such as “free healthcare.” I can’t understand their motivation other than only thinking of themselves.
Thankfully, they’re more than disgusted, and they’ll be voting for Trump.
Also, my DIL is a new American citizen .. came here legally - got her citizenship in 2014... and she’s voting in her first election, for Trump. And she has American-born (Hispanic) church friends who are voting Trump.
Yes, and that's why I think she'll never be elected.
Back in 2008, someone referred to the "broken glass Republicans" -- people that would walk across broken glass to vote against Hillary.
But, then the Obama campaign used their own dirty tricks to push Hillary aside. The media then cranked up the outrage machine against McCain, and his response was feeble.
Now, there is finally a Republican candidate that fights back. There hasn't been one since Reagan, and many voters simply stayed home. Those voters remember Hillary, though.
Hillary still has what Romney called the "47%", although it looks closer to 38-42%. Her only hope is enough people will vote for Johnson or Stein, instead of Trump. Carter held out the same hope for Anderson, and it didn't work out.
The wild card is voters too young to remember Hillary's tenure in the White House back in the 90's. They only get the sugar-coated version from the lamestream media. If they had been old enough to remember and experience it, none of this crap with the email server and the foundation would be any surprise.
Back then, Hillary blamed the "vast right-wing conspiracy", but looked like a fool when it became clear the only conspiracy was in the Clinton Crime Family.
I know this is based on anecdotal evidence, but I believe Johnson and Stein draw votes from HRC, not Trump. I've been an active Republican for thirty years and have family and friends who are Republicans of all stripes. A (very) few wanted Trump from the start; most of the rest of us pragmatically switched from Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz and have been pushing hard for Trump ever since. A few really, really don't like Trump, but know HRC would be disastrous for the country, so they are going for Trump. Finally, those who detest Trump so blindly that they will not vote for him no matter what are going to vote for Hillary — 100% of them; not one of them is going to vote or Johnson or Stein.
“I understand. I have mush-brained relatives who voted for zero for the material stuff he promised - such as “free healthcare.” I can’t understand their motivation other than only thinking of themselves.”
Ding, ding, diing, we have a winner! This country has become rife with “gibbsmedats,” and they are not all minorities by a long shot. The RATs have always had an “advantage” in that they have appealed to these self-absorbed a$$holes who think that once they pop out of some unmarried bitche’s womb, the rest of us have an “obligation” to pave their way through life from the cradle to the grave. I think if you parsed the list of folks who are getting “public assistance,” you would find that more of them are there by concious choice than by unavoidable circumstances. Trump will hopefully make them sink or swim, because unless we cut off the freeloaders, we’re going to end up like the rest of the world.
Well stated!
I agree. I think that all of Stein's support is coming from disaffected Bernie-bots.
I think that Johnson's support includes some Bernie-bots -- people that won't vote for Trump, but would never vote for Hillary, either. But, that's really soft support.... it's an open question if they will actually go to the polls and vote.
Johnson's remaining support is Republicans that don't want to vote for Trump, or at least admit to it. But in the end, I think the ones in the purple states will ultimately vote for Trump, if they vote at all. The ones in solid blue or red states will probably decide they can safely cast a protest votes.
Ultimately, it may come down to whether Trump lures back the disaffected voters that gave up on the GOP after a string of Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney.
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