Turnout report for 2012 week #1:
Posted on 10/23/2016 11:21:12 AM PDT by LS
Nevada Freepers: early voting has started and returns are listed at SecState's website, but I know nothing about NV history/voting patterns---do Rs usually have an advantage in early voting? Ds?
Can someone (preferably with some data from 2012) inform me?
I can get this info to the top of the Trump organization but it must be solid statistically.
Tnks for all you do.
Super. This nails it. Rs down by 7% on day one of early voting. Rs finished absentees up 500.
If I read this right it looks bad: it looks like in 2012 that there was a D+8 difference at this point, where there is a D+13 today. Am I reading this correctly?
LS NO ONE is taking into consideration how many DEMS and Indies are voting Trump!!! The votes are not open and counted just which party they are registered!!!
Ravi, Speedy, can you guys weigh in? It looks like NV Rs are down about 1.5% in absentees from 2012, and in earlies it was about 8% in 2012 while now it’s about 13%. Am I reading this right? Was there an extra week, though, of early voting in 2012? There was in OH.
I am also taking into consideration how many people will hand carry their vote to the polling place with ALL of the news about voter fraud!!! We are allowed to do this in CA. and I am hand carrying my moms VOTE to the polling place and running it through the machine myselef!!!
I get that. But in all my analysis sent to Team Trump I only give them what I can prove. We can’t prove D/R cossovers or Is voting R. Even with R ballots, I use a conservative 85% Trump vote estimate. That way, no one is unexpectedly disappointed.
Nevada home for many California ex-pats
I’ve lived in Nevada 35 years. I don’t have the info you want, but my sense is early voting would heavily go Dem because of historical connection to unions.
Anecdotal, I was working in my driveway when 4 union goons drive up with Hillary blue shirts and pamphlets. California plates! They think I’m a Dem because my brother fake registers that way.
I asked why they’d vote for Hillary knowing she was corrupt. They said they knew she was corrupt and knew about wikileaks, but she would provide jobs.
That’s when I started swearing a blue streak and told them they were corrupt MFers and to get the hell back to California before I called the cops.
Point is much corrupt union involvement from Cal. But I’m not sure it affects the vote as much this time. Black lady at AMPM is voting Trump for example.
I have no idea how Nevada will vote although even with the nevertrumpers in government I think Trump. I do expect very high voter turn out though, with questions #1 and #2 on the ballot.
This is good work. I am certain the Establishment is skimping on ways to help Donald win, since he is not one of them. Case in point:
The Republican Party has always mailed me an absentee ballot request form, each election cycle, I have assumed as part of turnout operations. No request form came from them this year, and I am pretty sure I should have gotten it by now. Maybe coincidence, maybe not.
I read somewhere else about people showing up to volunteer, and local party people trying to get them to do phones for down ticket candidates, and saying they didn’t need anyone else to volunteer for Donald, which sounds like bullshit.
You may pick up on perfidy with this, and that is God’s work.
It would be interesting if there are a whole suite of things like this relating to turnout which Donald will have to do himself, or go without.
That may be a reason to also pay attention to polls which seem to favor Hillary unduly. There is fraud by the dems, but they may also be assuming sabotage of normal support operations by the Establishment which would normally give an extra 4 or 5%.
Yes, I noticed that. Good point, but also the point about absentees this time around wanting to hand in ballots in person because they don’t trust the fraud.
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