Posted on 10/25/2016 12:02:59 AM PDT by Zakeet
Conventional wisdom says that Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election and RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls and non-MSM polls. They have starkly different characteristics and results. MSM polls come from those you already know, and the companies themselves have already shed their last shred of dignity and objectivity to throw in with Hillary. They also poll in discreet measure (i.e. release a poll whenever they want one to come out).
Non-MSM polls are not as well known but quite accomplished (e.g. Rasmussen, LA Times/USC, IDB/TIPP - the most accurate in 2012 election, btw). They also poll daily (actually an average of the last three days). Finally, MSM polls consistently show Hillary up by an average of 8%, whereas the non-MSM polls have shown variation based on events and a logical current tightening of the polls down to basically +/-1% or so per candidate (e.g. Trump in the lead right now by 2% in Rasmussen's poll).
What if the polls change more favorably for Trump? Great, but I'm not counting that here. What about the 2012 party sampling (or worse) adjustment to data? Have you seen the difference in the candidate's rallies? But so what? I'm not factoring that in either. No, I'm not talking about polls changes or the supposedly awoken silent majority giant. I'm talking about the Bradley Effect.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The Bradly Effect refers to the case where a black LA major who ran for California Governor against a white man in 1982 was well ahead in the polls but lost the election ... the polls were flawed because people did not want to sound racist when asked how they would vote ... the author believes this is also true in the case of the MSM maligned Trump.
I’m out on that limb too, with the American people.
Michael Moore — yes THAT Michael Moore— says Trump will win.
If he says we’ll win, we will win.
These polls are Hillary’s last desperate hail Mary to reduce voter participation. A fake out for the folks who never vote and are dumb enough to believe the MSM.
Fortunately, Trump’s entire message is DON’T TRUST THE MEDIA AND POLITICIANS.
So those listening to Trump will turn out.
Her lazy, low-T voters though... might stay home. Especially if it rains.
There very likely is a Bradley Effect. The Liberal Media’s polls are pure propaganda and the latest ABC poll was just laughable (the Wicked Witch +12). When you take the non-MSM polls and add in the Bradley Effect, Trump is likely ahead by 3-7%.
Is the RCP poll still contaminated by the CNU poll?
The RCP poll average is primarily a collection of Liberal Media polls. That’s why it always has the Wicked Witch comfortably in the lead.
The last time I saw the source polls they use 4 of the five had Trump up by one or two. The CNU clearly was an outlier that had Hillary up 12 and should have been thrown out but Bret reported “Hillary up 7”.
Massive voter fraud can dilute any Bradley effect.
They said the Bradley effect was happening with the Obama polls too, but it didn’t happen. And if an effect involving a black candidate was ever going to happen, that would’ve been when.
I’m more inclined to believe Trump can be saved by the Brexit effect than by the Bradley effect. We need those unlikely voters who usually don’t show up to come out.
You realize how much the world would be flipped upside down if this happens? The MSM will implode.
What’s working toward Trump’s victory, and better than for Romney at the same time in 2012?
1. Voter enthusiasm probably 20% net positive for Trump.
2. People sick and tired of Hillary and Bill Clinton. People cannot stand to look at her or listen to her.
3. The desire for change, and the fear that this is the last chance to save the country.
4. The desire for a strong leader in a dangerous world.
5. Depressed turnout from Obama’s constituency - blacks, Hispanics, millenials.
6. Trump overwhelming support among men.
7. Trump favorability among union workers.
8. Energy workers who see Trump as their only chance to save their jobs.
9. Trump support among white women.
10. Trump favorability among independents.
11. Increased Republican registration in Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, elsewhere.
12. Early voting enthusiasm in Republican counties.
13. Trump is not running against Obama.
14. Outrageous MSM polls that are meant to depress turnout, and just energize Trump supporters.
15. The Bradley effect.
What’s working against Trump?
1. MSM spin.
2. Clinton team corruption.
3. Salacious headlines. These are already out there, and will have no additional effect.
4. Our GOPe leaders, proclaiming a loss.
5. Trump misstatements.
If he can stay on message for the next 2 weeks, I like our odds to win.
If they keep telling everyone that Trump has no chance to win then he may just win by +10.
Besides the MSM polls being skewed to favor Hillary I’m starting to wonder if her own internal polling is skewed, so as to not provoke her infamous temper. Her staff is probably just trying to survive. In other words, just keep telling her she is ahead. If she loses the meltdown will happen and the staff can run for cover then.
Thats what I’m hoping- that ppl feel the sense of urgency to save the country...this is the last chance... She wins, its game over. Lose the court, she will issue tons of exec orders, and the GOPe will be permanently cuckolded.
Bottom line- I’ve felt from the start, if Trump can get 64% of white vote overall (up from Romney’s 59%)....and 60% of the mens vote (up from Romney’s 54%) then he can pull this off, with massive turnout.
I wish he would also mention the states where Soros has influence over the voting machines and to be very careful when voting to watch for vote changing.
The correct effect in this case is the Shy Tory effect.
TURNOUT,TURNOUT,TURNOUT.
Divert what, exactly, from the presidential campaign? The last time I looked at her schedule, she had no rallies scheduled, and only a couple of fundraisers for ultra-rich donors (whom I suspect were funneling even more money to the Clinton "foundation").
It would be difficult for Clinton to take time away from her campaign when she hasn't been spending time on her campaign in the first place.
MomwithHope wrote:
“Besides the MSM polls being skewed to favor Hillary I’m starting to wonder if her own internal polling is skewed, so as to not provoke her infamous temper. Her staff is probably just trying to survive. In other words, just keep telling her she is ahead. If she loses the meltdown will happen and the staff can run for cover then.”
You raise a very interesting point.
bttt
There are also the folks who don’t want to waste their time by responding to the polls. I would imagine that a lot of the hang ups or unanswered calls are folks like me who know what we need and will not waste my time with the polls - especially after seeing how freakin’ biased they are.
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