Current FL EV In-Person ballot compared to same amount in 2012:Rep +5.5, Dem-6.3, OTH +7.1%

October 25, 2016 | Self

[right-wingin_It]

Current FL EV In-Person ballot compared to same amount in 2012:Rep +5.5, Dem-6.3, OTH +7.1%

Sorry but no news outlet is reporting the Florida In-Person Early vote data properly, which is that:

FL In-person Early ballots are way up across the board, BUT relative to the point in time in 2012 with roughly the same amount of Early in person ballots received, Dems have a smaller share now than Republicans and "Other". In other words, in 2016 Dems are underperforming as a share of the ballots received, and the Republicans and Other are outperforming.

I had found a Miami Herald article from Oct 28th 2012 where they reported the In-Person Early vote stats. As of Oct 27th 2012 when they had 298,673 In-Person ballots submitted to the state, Registered Dems was 145,470, Registered Republicans was 105,948, and Independants (catch all other term) was 47,219.

The total In-person ballots received at that time (298,673) in 2012 is very close to the amount of ballots submitted as of today in 2016 (291,449), per secretary of state website. The current Reg Republican ballots are 109,034, Dem 133,041, Other/Unf 49,374.

SO to determine percent up or down performance of each(Reps/Dems/other) vs. 2012, I first normalized the current total early in person ballots I normalized the to the 2012 figure I had, while maintaining the vote share percentages. I then compared the ballot change for each group (Reps, Dems, Other).

One last comment..caution that in person early vote ballot data is missing for some counties, but the statewide total ballots in for that category were comparable to 2012, so I did the calculation. Purpose is to show its not doom and gloom like media reports. Sources:
1) Oct 28, 2012 Miami Herald article
2) Fl Secretary of State website, public statistics, as of mid day Oct 25,2016

[right-wingin_It]

The real story about FL In Person Early vote needs a proper headline to reflect party performance relative to each other compared to their performances in 2012

Because ballots are up across the board, media is getting away with writing doom and gloom stories about how demographic vote is waay up, but the truth is everything is way up (headlines like latino voter up 99%)and its in the republicans favor this time.

[Terry Mross]

Which party someone votes doesn’t tell which candidate they voted for. Right?

[right-wingin_It]

Need to clarify, in the post I’m talking about actual FL In-person Early Vote BALLOTS RECEIVED, by party registration — not talking about registrations.

[riri]

I think that holds true in this election particularly.

[right-wingin_It]

Which party someone votes doesn’t tell which candidate they voted for. Right?

Yep, but knowing that reg Republicans turnout in in-person early voting is stronger than in 2012, while reg Dems is weaker, is a positive thing for Trump supporters (as 85% or so republicans support Trump).

[bigredkitty1]

OK, in English, for those of us mathematically challenged. Thank you.

[dp0622]

Besides watching the Jets lose, there is NO CHANCE of me watching network TV before the election.

Then it’s FOX for one night and that’s it!! :)

Why get upset? FR gives all the info i need.

[dp0622]

PLUS finally saw a commercial for Trump in NY :)

A rare treat.

[HotKat]

What does it mean?

[Buttons12]

NO CHANCE of me watching network TV before the election. Then it’s FOX for one night and that’s it!! :) Why get upset? FR gives all the info i need.

Ditto. Same way I "watched" the debates. And I don't even have BP issues.

[M. Thatcher]

Interesting - but not sure I follow. You say:

FL In-person Early ballots are way up across the board

Then you say:

The total In-person ballots received at that time (298,673) in 2012 is very close to the amount of ballots submitted as of today in 2016 (291,449)

Seems contradictory?

[Ravi]

This is the missing piece. Thanks

[goldstategop]

Unanswered question is turnout media-predicted D +6 to D +9?

If it is, say hello to President Hillary. If it isn’t possible Trump upset because the polls mostly agree its Hillary!

And if it isn’t like 2012 in terms of Ds crashing the polls, its a whole new ballgame, indeed.

[Terry Mross]

It means some early voting democrats could be voting for Trump.

[right-wingin_It]

Stats from Fl secretary of state:



Miami Herald article of 2012 early vote, publ Oct 28, 2012(source link (above) is from typed blog):

[spokeshave]

OMG...the Trump Train is acceleration out of the plateau.....heading up to the shining city at the top of the mountain

....meanwhile the Cankles Caboose has slipped back and is descending into the fjord that it was always pining for.

[bicyclerepair]

Chicks haven’t hatched yet.

If it’s <5% difference, the beast steals it.

[InterceptPoint]

What does it mean?

The Question of the Day. Your reward will be delivered by Amazon no later than 8:00 PM tomorrow.

While you are waiting here is some data to chew on. In the 2012 election Obama beat Romney by 74,309 votes. That works out to Obama 50.2% to Romney 49.3%. So Obama won by just .9%. The bottom line, based on the early voting, is that Hillary is not going to do as well against Trump as Obama did against Romney. Can Trump make up those 74,308 votes plus the expected increase in vote fraud and defeat Her Highness. I believe this data says he is likely to but it is very preliminary. But the trends look good to me.

[right-wingin_It]

Seems contradictory?

I know, I agree actually. Hope I can explain it better:

In the 2012 cycle, the 298,673 total ballots received for the in person early vote was not hit until that Saturday in the cycle, per the Miami Herald article. But in this 2016 cycle we reached almost reached that mark already -- Tusday, as the Tuesday morning the stats were already at 291,449 for total in person early vote ballots received. So unless early voting in 2012 was shorter and not have started until that Friday in the cycle, then it appears the early in-person voting is way way up. Every category is up if the numbers are what they are now on Tuesday, when it would have been Saturday in 2012 (Dems, Repubs, Independants. So for that reason the media can write titles like "latino voting is up 99%" which is true if they hit their Saturday 2012 number on Tuesday 2016, but the fact is everything else is also up.

So regardless of the above, how it all started was I noticed that the total In-Person Early vote that was in as of today had matched roughly the total in-person vote that was published in the Miami Herald October 28, 2012 article (both roughly about 295,000 range votes). So I saw it as an opportunity to use that data from that day in 2012, to see which group is doing better compared to now. And Republicans are doing better, Dems doing worse, and "Other" doing better.

[goldstategop]

BUT IS IT D +9?

CAUSE THAT’S WHAT ABC PROJECTED FOR THEIR HILLARY LANDSLIDE WIN POLL.