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Current FL EV In-Person ballot compared to same amount in 2012:Rep +5.5, Dem-6.3, OTH +7.1%
October 25, 2016
| Self
Posted on 10/25/2016 3:28:13 PM PDT by right-wingin_It
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To: SpeedyInTexas
ping...
One thing I would like to know is what day Florida In-person early voting started on in 2012? was it a Monday like this time in 2016, or was it some other day?
To: right-wingin_It
That’s awesome, we have 24,000 more votes on the first day of the voting!
To: right-wingin_It
Didn’t early votes start a week later this election?
23
posted on
10/25/2016 4:59:59 PM PDT
by
LS
("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
To: right-wingin_It
Yes in 2012, early voting started that Saturday about 8 days out from the election. This year, there is two weeks of early voting.
24
posted on
10/25/2016 5:52:16 PM PDT
by
Ravi
To: right-wingin_It
25
posted on
10/25/2016 5:54:30 PM PDT
by
Ravi
To: bigredkitty1
OK, in English, for those of us mathematically challenged. Thank you.
See #19.
Right now there are 1.6M votes in, of which about 300,000 are "Early In-Person" votes that have been cast. That is the point in 2012 I am comparing to as well - when 300,000 Early In-person votes were cast, which fell on October 27, 2012 (that is also when 1.6M total people also voted). And it turns out that Republicans and "Other" have a greater share of the Early In-Person vote this time around than they did in 2012, whereas for the Dems it is actually worse. So I calculated the percentages for each so we can see "by how much." And so if this holds, Dems will be severely damaged on the final tally because they rely on Early In-Person vote much more heavily than Republicans do.
To: Ravi
Yes in 2012, early voting started that Saturday about 8 days out from the election. This year, there is two weeks of early voting
Thank you Ravi. I was looking for that info for a long time, but kept finding information about absentee ballot early voting.
So it appears the Day #1 Early In person turnout overall is somewhat similar to Day #1 2012 Early In Person turnout. looking here. The main point was to show at the 300,000 Early In person vote received mark, Republicans and others have a greater share of it this time around then Dems do. So Republicans are out performing.
To: right-wingin_It
Your information is validated.
28
posted on
10/25/2016 6:13:21 PM PDT
by
Ravi
To: right-wingin_It
in person early vote was not hit until that Saturday...we almost reached that mark already -- Tuesday...Republicans are doing better, Dems doing worse, and "Other" doing better.Ah, thank you for clarifying. I understand.
Very good news.
To: right-wingin_It
Thank you for the breakdown. At the end of a long day, even 2+2 is hard for me.
30
posted on
10/25/2016 6:42:33 PM PDT
by
bigredkitty1
(March 5, 2010. Rest in peace, sweet boy. I will miss you, Big Red.)
To: M. Thatcher
Ravi, in a post on this thread, had corrected me regarding when the Early In person voting started in FL this year versus in 2012. So I was wrong about the early in person vote being much larger this year than in 2012. But the main point I was making about Republicans and Independent doing better than 2012 as a share of the In-Person Early vote received, and the Dems doing worse, and thecalculated percentages for that - that is still correct.
To: bigredkitty1
I was up early today...after a long day, my typing goes to crap and my yik yak makes less sense.
To: goldstategop
Precisely. This election will come down to turnout. That’s why the Liberal Media is pushing its propaganda polls so much. If the Trump supporters come out in force and the Democratic numbers are substantially lower than they were in 2012, Trump will be in great shape.
33
posted on
10/25/2016 11:08:59 PM PDT
by
Repeal 16-17
(Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
To: right-wingin_It
"The total In-person ballots received at that time (298,673) in 2012 is very close to the amount of ballots submitted as of today in 2016 (291,449), per secretary of state website."Significant because cycle-to-cycle, in-person EV should see much greater adoption as the BB generation dies off ie those who only knew of a time where you could only get an absentee ballot if you had a freaking legitimate 'excuse'.
Actually glad to see vote depression to that degree, as in-person EV is an abomination. No way can the GOP convince poll watchers to sit anywhere for free for weeks...
34
posted on
10/26/2016 3:07:00 AM PDT
by
StAnDeliver
(PS - "May you live in interesting times." The interesting times have just arrived.)
To: right-wingin_It
2012 Florida elections: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Romney and all Democrats vote for Obama)
Early In-Person Voting
Obama: 145470/298637 = 48.7%
Romney: 105,948/298637 = 35.5%
48.7% - 35.5% = 13.2%
So on October 27, 2012, it was D+13 in Florida early in-person voting
The final 2012 Florida vote was D+1 (50.2% - 49.3% = 0.9%)
2016 Florida elections:
Early In-Person Voting: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Clinton)
Clinton: 133041/291449 = 45.6%
Trump: 109034/291449 = 37.4%
So on October 25, 2016, it was D+8 in Florida early in-person voting
If my analysis turns out to be true (Im not counting the Independent registrations), then it is possible that the final 2016 Florida vote will be R+4 (12 point swing in favor of the Republicans from the early in-person vote when approximately 290,000 early in-person votes have been cast to the final Florida results).
To: convoter2016
Thank you for calculating that. I may have misspoke the other evening when I said “share”. So this other way of looking at the differences is probably more standard. With the fresh results in this afternoon, I think they are even better than they gain you calculated this morning!
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