Current FL EV In-Person ballot compared to same amount in 2012:Rep +5.5, Dem-6.3, OTH +7.1%

October 25, 2016 | Self

[right-wingin_It]

Current FL EV In-Person ballot compared to same amount in 2012:Rep +5.5, Dem-6.3, OTH +7.1%

Sorry but no news outlet is reporting the Florida In-Person Early vote data properly, which is that:

FL In-person Early ballots are way up across the board, BUT relative to the point in time in 2012 with roughly the same amount of Early in person ballots received, Dems have a smaller share now than Republicans and "Other". In other words, in 2016 Dems are underperforming as a share of the ballots received, and the Republicans and Other are outperforming.

I had found a Miami Herald article from Oct 28th 2012 where they reported the In-Person Early vote stats. As of Oct 27th 2012 when they had 298,673 In-Person ballots submitted to the state, Registered Dems was 145,470, Registered Republicans was 105,948, and Independants (catch all other term) was 47,219.

The total In-person ballots received at that time (298,673) in 2012 is very close to the amount of ballots submitted as of today in 2016 (291,449), per secretary of state website. The current Reg Republican ballots are 109,034, Dem 133,041, Other/Unf 49,374.

SO to determine percent up or down performance of each(Reps/Dems/other) vs. 2012, I first normalized the current total early in person ballots I normalized the to the 2012 figure I had, while maintaining the vote share percentages. I then compared the ballot change for each group (Reps, Dems, Other).

One last comment..caution that in person early vote ballot data is missing for some counties, but the statewide total ballots in for that category were comparable to 2012, so I did the calculation. Purpose is to show its not doom and gloom like media reports. Sources:
1) Oct 28, 2012 Miami Herald article
2) Fl Secretary of State website, public statistics, as of mid day Oct 25,2016

[right-wingin_It]

ping...
One thing I would like to know is what day Florida In-person early voting started on in 2012? was it a Monday like this time in 2016, or was it some other day?

[Beautiful_Gracious_Skies]

That’s awesome, we have 24,000 more votes on the first day of the voting!

[LS]

Didn’t early votes start a week later this election?

[Ravi]

Yes in 2012, early voting started that Saturday about 8 days out from the election. This year, there is two weeks of early voting.

[Ravi]

http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/05/81541/

8 days of early voting 2012. 14 days this year.

[right-wingin_It]

OK, in English, for those of us mathematically challenged. Thank you.

See #19.

Right now there are 1.6M votes in, of which about 300,000 are "Early In-Person" votes that have been cast. That is the point in 2012 I am comparing to as well - when 300,000 Early In-person votes were cast, which fell on October 27, 2012 (that is also when 1.6M total people also voted). And it turns out that Republicans and "Other" have a greater share of the Early In-Person vote this time around than they did in 2012, whereas for the Dems it is actually worse. So I calculated the percentages for each so we can see "by how much." And so if this holds, Dems will be severely damaged on the final tally because they rely on Early In-Person vote much more heavily than Republicans do.

[right-wingin_It]

Yes in 2012, early voting started that Saturday about 8 days out from the election. This year, there is two weeks of early voting

Thank you Ravi. I was looking for that info for a long time, but kept finding information about absentee ballot early voting.

So it appears the Day #1 Early In person turnout overall is somewhat similar to Day #1 2012 Early In Person turnout. looking here. The main point was to show at the 300,000 Early In person vote received mark, Republicans and others have a greater share of it this time around then Dems do. So Republicans are out performing.

[Ravi]

Your information is validated.

[M. Thatcher]

in person early vote was not hit until that Saturday...we almost reached that mark already -- Tuesday...Republicans are doing better, Dems doing worse, and "Other" doing better.

Ah, thank you for clarifying. I understand.

Very good news.

[bigredkitty1]

Thank you for the breakdown. At the end of a long day, even 2+2 is hard for me.

[right-wingin_It]

Ravi, in a post on this thread, had corrected me regarding when the Early In person voting started in FL this year versus in 2012. So I was wrong about the early in person vote being much larger this year than in 2012. But the main point I was making about Republicans and Independent doing better than 2012 as a share of the In-Person Early vote received, and the Dems doing worse, and thecalculated percentages for that - that is still correct.

[right-wingin_It]

I was up early today...after a long day, my typing goes to crap and my yik yak makes less sense.

[Repeal 16-17]

Precisely. This election will come down to turnout. That’s why the Liberal Media is pushing its propaganda polls so much. If the Trump supporters come out in force and the Democratic numbers are substantially lower than they were in 2012, Trump will be in great shape.

[StAnDeliver]

"The total In-person ballots received at that time (298,673) in 2012 is very close to the amount of ballots submitted as of today in 2016 (291,449), per secretary of state website."

Significant because cycle-to-cycle, in-person EV should see much greater adoption as the BB generation dies off ie those who only knew of a time where you could only get an absentee ballot if you had a freaking legitimate 'excuse'.

Actually glad to see vote depression to that degree, as in-person EV is an abomination. No way can the GOP convince poll watchers to sit anywhere for free for weeks...

[convoter2016]

2012 Florida elections: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Romney and all Democrats vote for Obama)

Early In-Person Voting

Obama: 145470/298637 = 48.7%
Romney: 105,948/298637 = 35.5%

48.7% - 35.5% = 13.2%

So on October 27, 2012, it was D+13 in Florida early in-person voting

The final 2012 Florida vote was D+1 (50.2% - 49.3% = 0.9%)

2016 Florida elections:

Early In-Person Voting: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Clinton)

Clinton: 133041/291449 = 45.6%
Trump: 109034/291449 = 37.4%

So on October 25, 2016, it was D+8 in Florida early in-person voting

If my analysis turns out to be true (I’m not counting the Independent registrations), then it is possible that the final 2016 Florida vote will be R+4 (12 point swing in favor of the Republicans from the early in-person vote when approximately 290,000 early in-person votes have been cast to the final Florida results).

[right-wingin_It]

Thank you for calculating that. I may have misspoke the other evening when I said “share”. So this other way of looking at the differences is probably more standard. With the fresh results in this afternoon, I think they are even better than they gain you calculated this morning!