Posted on 10/26/2016 8:53:12 AM PDT by grayhog
Donald Trump: 42% Hillary Clinton: 45% Gary Johnson: 5% Someone else: 1% Undecided: 7%
What is most interesting to me here is the demographics of who they polled. Democrat 48%, Republican 42%, Non Partisan 10%. That seems OK to me.
But, they also polled 14% African American. Pennsylvania is 10% according to census. And 64% of the people asked came from Philly (42%) and Pittsburgh (22%). Pennsylvania has roughly 12 million people. Philly has 1.5 million and Pittsburgh has 300k, so demographically those 2 cities are about 17% of PA's population. Trump won all of the areas polled that were not Philly and Pittsburgh.
Bottom line, if all you non Philly and Pittsburgh people show up, Trump should win PA. Even if they get the usual 115% turnout in Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
AFC?
Less than 2, by my count.
I'm starting to pick up on a vibe that makes me think that Trump is in the process of squashing Hillary like an insect.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
If that's true, you'd think that Hillary doesn't have a chance.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
If you drill down into the demographic details, Trump has 29% of the black vote (Obama had 93% in PA 2012), and 30% of Hispanic (Obama had 80%).
These are **WTF** type numbers. If sampling was distributed by population OR if these black/Hispanic ratios are in the ballpark of the actual results, Trump wins PA. Combine both of these together, you have a polling error of 10% (like in the Primary PA vote where Trump overperformed polling by 10%).
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