Posted on 10/26/2016 8:53:12 AM PDT by grayhog
There will be fraud, but its not going to be enough... Hillary is toast... I expect Trump to win by a solid margin.. Fraud won’t be able to steal it.
To win PA statewide as a Democrat you have to come out of Philly region huge... the Obama coalition isn’t going to show up for her... she’s not got the level of support or enthusiasm she needs to do it IMHO....
“Donald Trump: 42% Hillary Clinton: 45% Gary Johnson: 5% Someone else: 1% Undecided: 7%”
The large undecided number is the key here. The undecideds always break for the challenger, and I think everyone will agree that Trump is indeed the challenger.
I would assume by the breakdown this poll offers they are talking REGION not actual resident of the cities.
SHe is only up 2 in the Pittsburgh region, she’s losing in Erie and Harrisburg... that means the only place she has to run up the vote.. is Philly region, and 56% there isn’t going to be enough to overwhelm the rest of the state....
I just don’t see her getting over 2.5/6M votes on election day, even with fraud.. I fully expect Trump to be 3M+
Close to the 26 i estimate.
All polls are coming back to earth. ABC went from +12 to +8 and will keep dropping
48-42-10?
That’s not “ok” no matter how one slices it. Ten percent Indies? Maybe in Wash DC or FranSicko, but nowhere else
She’ll need to put out extra to the Murdock boys in order to keep her job....
Assuming traditional break down of 2-1 that 7% is about 4.6% trump 2.3% Hillary which is basically 46.6 to 47.3.. HOwever I fully expect Trump to beg better than 2-1 out of the undecided, and I do believe he has a monster vote here that is not being captured in the polling.
Just a few more weeks to go.
Democrats - 4.2 Million
Republican - 3.3 Million
Unaffiliated - 726K
Actually for PA, that’s not too far off the actual registration percentages:
Registered D 48%
4,202,159
Registered R 38%
3,294,200
Registered I & Other 14%
726,612 I & Other 470,667
That’s from the state directly as of 10/24.
Folks not from PA, just don’t understand PA... but that poll actually is oversampling R’s.. and undersampling I’s... the D’s are actually spot on.
I’ll say it again, NE PA was -5 Romney vs Obama in 2012 and has been about +15 Trump vs HRC for quite some time. That is a game changer.
Any state Hillary isn’t up by at least 10+, Trump will win.
And Hillary has leads like that in very few of them - not enough to matter.
At this point the uncommitted probably just won’t show up. Uncommitted means not interested I think?
I have no doubt that Trump has the numbers to win this. Along with the lack of enthusiasm and committed support for The Hag. She's despised even by her own.
However, I DO have yuge reservations about the integrity of those who COUNT THE VOTES. Computerized Voting Machines can still and all be easily "re-calibrated" and hacked. especially in every major US city where Dems run those machines (and count the results.)
Absentee ballots in those cities and elsewhere in Dem/Leftist strongholds will be printing up and counted rivers of M&Ms. Trump must have a 5-7 point lead to counter what will be even more massive voter fraud via rigging of the machines.
Honestly I am not worried about fraud costing PA. I don’t think it’s going to be close enough for that to be an issue.
But watching these talking heads on TV make me laugh... They honestly are shilling these polls that don’t pass the smell test.. Like Hillary up something like 7 in NC??? It is laughable.
Obama eeks out NC with 20k votes and likely fraud in 08... Romney won solidly in 12 but Hillary is up 7 or whatever it is there? It’s garbage, but they keep pushing this nonsense.
Hillary has nowhere the support of Obama in 12, let alone 08 but they think she’s got that big of a lead? It’s nonsense
This poll UNDERCOUNTS whites. If you use proper race mix, Trump is +2.
The pollsters are trying account for exceptional turn out in some portions of Philly.
Gotcha....my bad methodology
Unreal. I think it will be over 15% though, and, yes, she is toast.
Now on Election Day will that be that be the actual turnout breakdown? Unlikely but that is the registration numbers.
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