USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 11/06 -- Trump 48.2 (+ .2) , Clinton 42.6 (+- 0)

USC/LA Times | November 6, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[oblomov]

As I noted, the respondents actually rate their likelihood of voting, which means that they don’t need to reweight for the turnout (by party ID) that the pollster expects.

[KC_Lion]

Trump’s Iowa Class Battleships have come within striking distance of Hillary shores and opened fire.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Wow. This may just be a repeat of 1980.

[Cboldt]

-- How do we find party ID and crossover vote with this poll? --

You don't. Party affiliation or identity isn't part of the data set.

[HokieMom]

Liddy has been campaigning for Trump in Virginia along with his daughter, Sandy Liddy Bourne.

[Cboldt]

-- The biggest news in this poll for the past couple of days has been that Hillary's Hispanic support is collapsing. --

I agree. She has been in the lead in that category all along, and I won;t be surprised if Trump overtakes her in that group, in tomorrow or Tuesday's report.

[john316]

How accurate is this poll? Only for CA?what is the sampling breakdown?

[Fai Mao]

“Sandy Liddy Bourne”

She should get her husband Jason to do a stump speech or two. (humor isn’t my strong suit)

[billyboy15]

Sure they note the likelihood of voting, but isn’t this poll STRICTLY a “likely voter” poll. They are historically more accurate than using just registered voters.

Additionally the must use some sort of turn out model in order to arrive at a forecast.

[oblomov]

It isn’t a traditional poll, wherein a random sample of likely voters is recruited and the sample is reweighted to match expected population proportions.

The USC/Dornsife turnout model is based on the respondents’ scores of their likelihood of voting.

So Trump, for example, can rise or fall in this tracking poll based on changes in Trump (or clinton) voter intentions to vote, as well as the voting preference itself.

[uncbob]

I have been waiting for the demise of the Clintons since 94 when the grass roots voters turned congress upside down

Every new scandal brought hope

I have been through the wringer so much I am numb

Don’t know if I will make it out of bed Tuesday ( but then I have to take my 88 year old bro to a DRs appointment so I guess I have no choice )

At 80 one more disappointment will be fatal

[mad_as_he$$]

Man I sure am hoping this poll in correct.

[HokieMom]

It would be a nail biter!

[hellinahandcart]

At 80 one more disappointment will be fatal

My dad went into a sudden decline the day after the 2012 election and was dead two weeks later. Take care of yourself.

[Theodore R.]

G. Gordon was comical and at times had a near potty mouth, but his friendship with Lanny Davis undermined his commitment to defeating all things clinton.

[Democrats hate too much]

In 1980 Sunday was actually when the polls started to change.

[Luircin]

That’s what I was looking for! Thanks.

[SamAdams76]

Either Trump is going to win big or this poll has been very, very wrong.