Posted on 11/13/2016 11:44:29 AM PST by LS
Boy was I wrong. All along I had Trump at between 62 and 64 million votes. Our overly optimistic friend "Sundance" at www.conservativetreehouse.com was completely off the charts unrealistic, with a projection of 73 million.
Yes, Trump won the electoral college---as I predicted---big. As of today I think he is at 304. Another 720,000 votes in seven states would have given him an additional 43 electoral votes.
But unfortunately I was right in another prediction: the margin would be large, but each state would be decided by a small fraction of voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida all hinged on fewer than 180,000 votes. To appreciate how close that is, Obama won reelection in 2008 by under 480,000 votes, and I thought that was very close. I did correctly predict that the dominoes would all fall in the same direction, and, more or less, they did. We lost VA and NH in the east, and NV and CO by larger margins in the west, but the battleground tier of OH, WI, MI, PA, IA, NC, and FL all fell to Trump.
So it's time to put good feelings aside for just a moment---we'll have plenty more in the coming months---and appreciate just how close . . . how MIRACULOUS . . . this election was.
You begin with Hillary Clinton, the equivalent of a new coach being given a Super Bowl team with All Stars at every position and a free agent budget the size of Jupiter (less the emigrating Cher). Cankles had 90% name recognition, a sitting president more or less behind her, a docile party obedient to her whims, and a fawning media such that Saddam Hussein or Napoleon would have been fortunate to have.
And with all that she got six million fewer votes than Zero in his second election (where he got millions fewer than in 2008). It's darn near unfathomable, looking at it objectively, to figure out how she lost, given the numbers.
She'll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million, held the expected liberal vote treasures of New York, Illinois, and California, held Obama's western states without exception, eked out a narrow win in New Hampshire, and got Virginia as expected.
Yet she was crushed in the electoral college by a guy who spent HALF as much as she did. How?
*She didn't make any inroads at all with females---supposedly Cankles' calling card. White women went for Trump. There was no big "gender gap," except with men, who couldn't stand her.
*She lost millions of black and hispanic votes. Pew's research is unreliable---these guys did polls, remember? ---but they say Trump only got 8% of blacks. (I find that very unlikely, especially when every other poll was showing him at nearly double that.) But if blacks didn't vote for Trump, they sure didn't vote for Cankles. In FL and NC, when all is said and done she probably lost several hundred thousand African-American votes.
*"Da Yuts" were repelled by her. They stayed home.
*She lost the northern tier of rust belt states because she just didn't care. Cankles made NO visits to Wisconsin, only a couple of desperation trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania in the end. That message got out.
*Trump was indeed hurt by the tape, and vote counters in Ohio found that erstwhile R absentees dated right after the tape release suddenly had a very high percentage of Johnson votes. I'm guessing the tape cost Trump NH, possibly MN.
Still, the tape cannot account for the lack of turnout for Trump. NeverTrumpers? Some. For whatever reason, though, Trump did not turn out the large number of new voters that was expected by his supporters such as myself. (The limited data we have says that 90% of Republicans voted for him).
That leaves us with one explanation: Trump's election was a miracle. Some 60,000-70,000 voters in MI and PA saved the country. WI was a nice addition, but without one more state, WI's 10 electoral votes wouldn't have put Trump over. No, this was divine intervention.
And, in a way, it is perfectly in keeping with the Bible, for it was Gideon who prepared to go to war with 30,000 men . . . "the old fashioned way." God told him many were not committed, and to winnow them out. When only 3,000 remained, Gideon was told to cut the number further. Finally only 300 fully committed men remained. The message was that God wanted Gideon to know that it was His power, not numbers or the skill of the troops, that would bring victory.
So in the end, our "monster vote" never materialized. God cut the number down to under 180,000 in five states so that no one could doubt Who really won this one.
There are 120m votes counted now between the D and R. But 3rd party got about another 4m.
I agree, if Sanders had won...... We would have felt what the Dems are feeling now, yikes.
I said it on another thread and will offer it here for thought/discussion. As close as this election seemed for us, it was a disaster for the 'Rats. Think about what they lost. They had what everybody thought was a slam-dunk win of the Presidency. Didn't happen. We defended 24 Senate seats and lost only two as of this writing, three if the 'Rats manage to steal the Louisiana seat in the runoff. Any other time defending 24 seats and holding a majority is a tall order, but we did it. Our losses in the House were minimal. I think we actually gained in governorships. Any way you slice it, compared to expectations, the 'Rats got stomped. About time, too, I'd have to say. Good to be on this side in an election that isn't off-year.
I agree look at the vote totals from Fairfax Arlington and other blue counties of Virginia and compare them to Obama’s 2012 totals. Hillary outperformed Obama in those blue counties by a large margin.
1. Any analysis of turnout should be held off until after the votes are certified by each state. If you go back over the last few years you'll find the same commentary right after every election about how much turnout had declined, but when all the absentee and provisional votes are counted the numbers always end up much higher.
2. I don't think Trump was ever going to be competitive in some of those states you listed. New Hampshire and Minnesota were the only ones that likely would have been added to his column if his campaign had gone smoothly. It is very hard for a loud-mouthed New Yorker to get a lot of traction among voters outside New York City.
3. I've said all along that I don't think the "Access Hollywood" tape did as much damage as most people seem to think. Trump's poll numbers took a serious hit after that, but if you go back and look at the polls I think you'll find that his number had already started to decline before that. I attribute this to two factors: (A) his poor performance in the first debate, and (B) that bizarre 3:00 AM tweet about the former Miss Universe Alicia Machado.
Item (B) above could have been fatal to Trump's campaign, because it introduced a thought in the minds of many voters that they never would have had otherwise at that late stage in the campaign: Is this guy really a presidential candidate, or is he just some public relations @sshole in the TV business?
Trump's campaign didn't get back on track until after he did a bang-up job in the second debate. His "You'd be in jail" line in that debate will be remembered as the turning point in the campaign.
Had dinner with my parish priest yesterday evening. He actually told me he thought it was God’s intervention that saved our nation from Jezebel.
I think Trump would have run a very different campaign against Sanders, and he still would have beaten him. Trump would have replicated his “low-energy Bush” campaign and painted Sanders as an old has-been who should have retired a long time ago.
Total presidential votes tallied so far including all parties according to Wikipedia:
2008: 131,313,820
2012: 128,768,072
2016: 127,109,805
With final tallies not in, it seems likely 2016 will end up above 2012. Not sure if it will hit 2008 levels.
Some states that were purging dead and inactive voters were stopped by judges. I think the excuse was that it was too close to election. So it needs to be done now and annually.
Network television is dying a slow death anyway. Print media is already dead. There's not much else that needs to be done here. Trump has proven that it's possible to get a strong message out despite the enormous media bias he was up against.
I have heard that, but have never seen that confirmed. The more I think about it, the more preposterous is sounds. Why wouldn't a state election board make the same decision about a rural county where the total vote count is smaller than the number of absentee ballots in a large metro area?
Trump got about 53% of white women of all education levels. His margin among those with a high school education (or less) was astonishing.
Absolutely, if we have to be tough, then we must be tough. Trump didn't win by being a wallflower, and that isn't being suggested.
Trump stayed a success for 40+ years by being a strong personality who knew his audience and how to negotiate the deal. That'll continue.
Our part, as his supporters, should be to graciously educate the willing ears to the *why* of his actions.
JMHO.
Just ask our Founding Fathers...
“absentee ballots aren’t counted in a typical state unless they could theoretically make a difference for that state’s outcome”
In Florida absentee ballots are scanned in at the same time as regular ballots. Fortunately Broward County was caught opening absentee ballots before they were canvassed.
Broward officials were also caught in a private room, with two (2) stacks of absentee ballots. One was blank, and one was the stack being created by absentee ballots that were being filled out by the officials. Fortunately the affidavit was clear about there being two (2) stacks, and one of them being a stack of blank ballots.
The Broward officials stated they were copying military faxed paper ballots onto ballots that could be fed through the voting machines. Note there was not a third stack in the affidavit. One wonders where the stack of faxed ballots,from which they were transcribing votes went.
The lady signing the affidavit was fired.
Broward has had many issues with voter fraud in the past, even between two Democrat candidates. Same Supervisor of Elections.
If Electoral Votes were assigned according to how Congressional Districts vote, as is done in Maine, Hillary’s Electoral vote tally would have been much, much smaller.
The Dems depend upon mass urban voter fraud to skew the total in their favor. Winner Take All in states for Federal Elections disenfranchises American Citizens, and leads to what we see now, demonstrations and riots claiming that Hillary got the popular vote, and should not have lost.
In fact if we took a very close look at all voters, we would probably find many who didn’t know they voted, illegal aliens voting, machines changing votes, and a lot of walking, voting dead.
The morons botched the timing of its release.
I remember reading that Access Hollywood had planned to run the story the Monday after the debate, thus quashing any Trump debate momentum. However, fortunately, some eager beaver leaked the video to The Washington Post on the Friday before, prompting Trump to trot out BJ's (and Hillary's) female victims, setting the tone for the debate.
 Kathleen Willey, Juanita Broaddrick, Kathy Shelton, Paula Jones |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PEqFQXZoFk
I believe God was/is involved, BUT, I think you should also see and give credit to the fact that President Elect Donald Trump is a genius, who hired the right people to communicate the right message.
It was NOT close. President Elect Trump could have lost FLORIDA and still won. He nearly won enough to lose Texas and still win.
The Democrat’s “blue wall” had cracks in it, (similar to a boxer with a broken rib.) Donald Trump channeled all his energy into punching that sore rib as often and as hard as he could.
THESE ARE BLUE STATES:
MICHIGAN - WISCONSIN - OHIO - PENNSYLVANIA - FLORIDA - NORTH CAROLINA
President Elect Trump flipped all of them.
His message was tailor made for these states, he won the union vote as a Republican, not easy. Look at Donald Trump’s 6-rally-a-day schedule his final week.
The fact that President Elect Trump didn’t win by wasting bags of money, pumping up the popular vote in states where the votes weren’t needed, should make you proud. It was his money, he spent EXACTLY what was needed to win, comfortably, and not a penny more.
Why did CROOKED Hillary waste so much money, driving up vote totals in states that weren’t being contested? That’s the question.
Winning California by 1 vote or 5 million votes is irrelevant.
I am convinced President Elect Trump had access to the best internal polling, and knew exactly where, how, and when to hit them for an electoral college knock out.
It was no coincidence Obama and Hillary were in Michigan and Pennsylvania on the final two days of the campaign, President Elect Trump had them beaten, and they knew it.
100% agree.
I was terrified in Vegas, because they really did a number on us in Nevada.
So glad we did not need it.
I hear what you’re saying. My problem is that I don’t know of anyone who’s been able to discuss anything rationally with a liberal for over ten years. The Clinton’s stopped rationality, in order to protect and sell themselves.
And, horrifyingly, it’s worked. Millions have implanted their thumbs firmly in their mouths, crapped their pants, and sat in it, screaming. That’s America today - in virtually every family. How many Freepers are about to have to deal with Thanksgiving and a load of these creatures in their own family?
We’ve tried loving kindness. It doesn’t work. These people need loving aggression, in their faces. IMHO, they need to see the rage THEIR subhuman narcissistic insulting contempt has generated. They need to be personally challenged as to how many teeth they are willing to lose for the cause.
This is a war by other means. These idiots serve masters who intend them and us dead. Being harsh to them, therefore, saves lives. It’s better they go to bed without cocoa and their blanky, crying their eyes out at age thirty, then be put up against a wall and shot someday by their masters who finally have no more need for their pathetic excuse for a human life.
I believe that’s where we are now - in fact, that it’s just what we escaped by defeating that absolute monster who pretends to be a human female. It’s THAT bad.
Thanks for the info :)
I see it as EVERY SINGLE state was important, because had he lost these few, or those few it could have been a loss.
Sure he won by more voters in certain states and some are mostly always red states, but still weather or any number of factors could have changed the outcome of any state.
To my view, they all were important and now as Trump makes good on a number of his promises, AND if we can get states to clean voter roles, He is more sure to win again should he run or if not Pence will be in good position to carry forward.
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