Posted on 10/27/2017 5:15:09 AM PDT by Kaslin
Three weeks ago, I wrote a column about how both parties seem determined to lose the next elections. Since then, the pace has accelerated.
The clamor is more visible -- and more assiduously reported by mainstream media -- among the Republicans.
George W. Bush and John McCain, who have been on or the son of someone on the presidential ticket in seven of the past ten elections, gave speeches lamenting the political culture and, by inescapable inference, the style and substance of Donald Trump.
Vitriolic criticism of the president came from Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who had already announced he would not be running for re-election, and from Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., in a Senate chamber speech announcing he'd made the same decision.
Unsurprisingly, Trump tweeted his contempt for the two senators. Trump enthusiasts bragged that threats of opposition from former White House aide Steve Bannon had forced them out of running.
Corker might have faced serious primary opposition in a state whose primary Trump won with 39 percent of the vote (though Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio combined got 46 percent). Now Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., who has sounded her support of Trump but is no rebel against the congressional leadership, seems to be the clear favorite.
In Arizona, Flake's 2018 chances were already dim. His cheerful support of comprehensive immigration bills dismayed many Republican voters, while his solidly conservative record on other issues put off independents. He won by three percentage points in 2012, in a state Mitt Romney carried by nine, and he was far behind in primary pairings against conspiracy-curious state legislator Kelli Ward, who lost the 2016 primary to John McCain by just a 51-40 percent margin.
Other Republicans will run in Arizona, probably with better chances of winning than either Flake or Ward. But the Republicans' internecine struggle, as well as Bannon's mindless pledge to oppose all incumbent senators and demand candidates pledge to oust Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, will not put Republicans in winning posture nationally.
The parties' impulse to self-defeat is apparent in Alabama's December special Senate election to fill Jeff Sessions' seat. Republicans nominated Roy Moore, twice ousted as state chief justice for disobeying federal court orders, and he is running far behind Trump's 2016 numbers because he's something of a nut. He "believes 9/11 was divine retribution for our sins," National Review's Jonah Goldberg writes, and is "an anti-Muslim bigot who can't quite bring himself to rule out the death penalty for homosexuals."
Bannon claims credit for his primary win over gubernatorial appointee Luther Strange, whom Trump endorsed. But Strange was damaged by the governor's forced resignation and Trump's rally speech on his behalf, which was dominated by his denunciation of NFL players.
Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Doug Jones, with a respectable resume as a federal prosecutor, is singing out of the national Democrats' increasingly left-wing hymnal, favoring third-trimester abortions (unpopular not just in Alabama but nationally). Moore's weaknesses will surely get Jones above Hillary Clinton's 34 percent in the state, but Moore could lose a lot of Trump's 62 percent and still win.
Jones' course, like Flake's statement that there's no way forward for him among Republicans may reflect a calculation that his party's base has changed. Democratic political scientists used to argue that polarization was caused entirely by Republican voters' and officeholders' move to the right.
But polling released by the Pew Research Center this month shows that the growth of the interparty gap since 2011 has been caused almost entirely by Democratic voters and officeholders moving to the left.
Sixteen Democratic senators now back Bernie Sanders' plan for government-run single-payer health care. Support from Democratic voters, Pew says, has increased from 33 percent in 2014 to 52 percent this year.
The percentage of Democrats believing that immigration "strengthens the country" has increased from 48 percent in 2010 to 84 percent this year. In line with this, congressional Democrats are resisting Trump's demands for E-Verify for job applicants and greater visa controls in the United States.
And they're listening to spokesmen for "dreamers" -- immigrants who were brought here illegally as children -- when they insist that not only they but also their parents be given legal status.
The case for giving dreamers legal status is popular and has been embraced even by Trump. But the argument for giving legal status to the parents who acted illegally is difficult to defend without arguing for totally open borders -- a case increasingly attractive to Democratic voters explicitly and Democratic officeholders inferentially.
The only thing preventing both parties from defeating themselves is the fact that elections are a zero-sum game in which one side must win.
“Other Republicans will run in Arizona, probably with better chances of winning than either Flake or Ward. But the Republicans’ internecine struggle, as well as Bannon’s mindless pledge to oppose all incumbent senators and demand candidates pledge to oust Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, will not put Republicans in winning posture nationally.”
This is where I stopped reading. Barone has his head firmly ensconced in his anal aperture! Just another of those “can’t we just go back to the way it was guys!” Can’t have too much of that “comity” to suit the wealthy donors now can we?
Poor Michael Barone has lost it. He has nary a clue, and neither does the Democrat Party. Read my lips....folks, the Trumpies will win big time and both the Democrat & Republican Establishment political parties,will suffer devastating political losses now and next year during the Mid-Term Elections.
The Republicans will win this year in Virginia and come close to winning in New Jersey. The Democrat Party loss in Virginia will be an almost fateful blow to the entire Democrat Party, and, Republican, Judge Roy Moore will easily win the Senate seat in Alabama with, at least, a ten percentage point.
Michael Barone...once a great touch on trends...has lost his accurate MoJo...sadly.
You don't need to set up a gambling casino in a church first before giving a sermon on the evils of gambling.
A Gillispe win is not a victory, except for the Establishment
Barone would approve..
Oschteichmerdochambugelnaufundrutschwidderrunderdubloederochs
I'll take that bet.
Well, Banon can write and say things arguing about candidates not being good, as can any one of us.
Seems to have been written by a defeatist.
Is Barone a nevertrumper?
True.
Yes, Weekly Standard guy.
George W. Bush and John McCain (along with other "establishment" Progressives from both Democrat and Republican Parties) have espoused globalist ideas and have rejected the founding ideas which, according to President George Washington, who was around at the framing of the nation's Constitution, centered on national sovereignty as a principle of governing this great nation!
Perhaps a reading of his Farewell Address might lead to a national conversation comparing the ideas of the last five Presidents, plus Trump's, with those cautions and warnings from Washington about how to preserve the principles and ideas of freedom enshrined in the Constitution's limitations on government.
Whose (the "globalists" or Trump) views would be more consistent with those of Washington, Adams, Madison, Jefferson and the others whose ideas made America the place where oppressed peoples came to enjoy "the Blessings of liberty"?
Barone is a little harsh IMO, to create an equivalency for his article premise. As he admits we’re now likely to have a candidate in AZ that’s more likely to win than either Flake or Ward and Jones has a near impossible road in Bama.
I don’t see how possible Bannon backed challengers in Mississippi or Wyoming could result in dem wins.
Meanwhile, support for Bernie-care is becoming a litmus test for dem candidates and their full throated embrace of illegal immigrants also limits their appeal.
Keeping a Marxist out the VA Governor’s mansion would be a victory for all Virginia.
And the next governor presides over redistricting.
I don’t see how Kim G could come close in NJ, she’s behind by double digits.
True. I generally like Barone, but he’s overstepping it here.
Speaking of AZ, I read on the Red Racing Horses blog that the current buzz is that former Rep. Matt Salmon is strongly considering the race (and the Club for Growth has already made a statement in support of him) while Rep. Trent Franks is out, as is former Gov. Jan Brewer, and Dave Schweikert has claimed he’s not sure he has the “burning passion” to run but hasn’t shut the door fully yet.
I was wondering if Salmon would interested.
Salmon ran and lost statewide in 2002 for Governor in a thoroughly winnable race (first time in 20 years a Republican lost that race). He had ample opportunity to challenge McQueeg or run for Kyl’s open seat in 2012 and passed. Bannon already stated he’s sticking with Ward even if Salmon gets in. So am I.
“Bannon Says”
I say, so what?
Twas nice of Ward to force Flake out but this isn’t about her and she’s not entitled to support just cause she was first in the race. I’m not convinced she’s a strong candidate who can beat the lesbo. I see absolutely no reason not to shop around.
John Shadegg is another possible candidate. “So and so didn’t run against McCain when they had the chance” is also not pertinent.
If it’s Ward vs. RINO McSally (who would foolish to leave her House seat open) ok. But no way would I back her over Shadegg.
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