Michele Bachmann mulls run for Al Franken's Senate seat

Axios ^ | 1/2/18 | Khorri Atkinson

[Impy]

In 2012 she came within a few thousand votes of losing reelection while world-beater Mitt Romney was cruising to a 15 point win in her district. Her successor, Tom Emmer, is a solid conservative who’s held the seat easily. She under-performed severely every time she ran, much like Katherine Harris in Florida, her Senate run ended great as you may recall.

We can’t afford any more weak candidates.

It’s time to stop pretending that ideology and electiblty aren’t 2 separate things. And that some people we may like can’t be atrocious candidates.

[Dr. Sivana]

It’s time to stop pretending that ideology and electiblty aren’t 2 separate things.

In 2012, Bachmann was briefly running for president. That hurt her final numbers just as it helped kill Bob Dornan in '96.

While one ideally wants someone who is both a good person and a talented candidate, we often cannot get both in the same person. In too many cases the Specter, Weicker, Collins, Snowe, Romney Republicans are a net negative. I can accept a relatively spineless candidate in the short term who is capable of pandering to the right people (us) and has a feel for the current Trumpian zeitgeist. They must be tolerated, but never trusted.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Emmer is actually the most left-leaning of the GOP House members from MN. He got a subpar 76% from the ACU in 2016, which is pretty squishy (same as Erik Paulsen, a squish). Kline was the most Conservative with 89% lifetime. No ratings yet for his successor.

[Impy]

Clinton was winning Dornan’s district by 8 points, not losing it by 15. Dornan outperformed Dole by a decent margin. If her district had liked her a Presidential campaign wouldn’t have nearly unseated her. Her constituent services have been praised (usually under-performers have cruddy CS) so that wasn’t it.

I can’t imagine MB could anything more than badly lose a statewide election. A 100% conservative who loses is as useless as a RINO who loses. Having the majority has been proven beyond question to be invaluable, exibit Alpha and Omega, Neil Gorsuch is on the Supreme Court and Merrick Garland is not. Susan Collins couldn’t put Garland on the court.

There is a deal of middle ground ideologically btw between MB and Susan Collins. I’d hardly compare Pawlenty to the likes of Arlen Specter.

As for Emmer DJ, maybe he’s not as “solid” as I thought but there other scorecards had him ahead of Kline, Heritage had Paulsen ahead of Kline, the ACU can no longer taken as the only standard, if it ever could be. Perhaps AUH can tell us where they fall on his average.

[Dr. Sivana]

Your responses are well-reasoned, and I agree that Pawlenty is one of those middle ground guys who I could certainly take over a Dem.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Looking at the 2015 and 2016 American Conservative Union (ACU) ratings for MN GOP congressmen, it is a dead heat at 79.5 among each of Emmer, Kline and Paulsen:

Emmer: 83 in 2015, 76 in 2016, 79.5 average for 2015-16

Kline: 75 in 2015, 84 in 2016, 79.5 average for 2015-16

Paulsen: 83 in 2015, 76 in 2016, 79.5 average for 2015-16

As you may recall, I don’t trust the ACU to provide a complete picture of a congressman’s voting record, particularly given that it has become increasingly idiosyncratic during the past decade. What I do is that I average the conservative ratings for the prior two years (unless there is a single rating, in which case I use that one) from three conservative groups whose scores are provided in Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics-—the ACU (both social and economic conservatism), the Club for Growth (CFG, economic conservatism) and the Family Research Council (FRC, social conservatism)-—and also average the “conservative equivalent” (100 minus the liberal score) for three liberal groups whose scores are provided in Barone’s Almanac—the ADA (Americans for Democratic Action—overall liberalism and Leftism), AFSCME (labor liberalism and big government) and the League of Conservation Voters (LCV, environazis)-—and then add up the six conservative ratings and divide by 600 to get a Conservative Voting Percentage. I don’t have Barone’s 2018 Almanac, but the six components are available on-line.

Here are the average conservative ratings from the three conservative groups and average liberal ratings from the three liberal groups, along with the Conservative Voting Percentage, for the three MN GOP congressmen for the 2015-16 Congress:

Emmer: 79.5 ACU; 72.0 CFG; 87.5 FRC; 0 ADA; 0 AFSCME; 0 LCV; 89.83% Conservative Voting Percentage

Kline: 79.5 ACU; 57.5 CFG; 96.0 FRC; 0 ADA; 0 AFSCME; 3 LCV; 88.33% Conservative Voting Percentage

Paulsen: 79.5 ACU; 68.0 CFG; 87.5 FRC; 0 ADA; 0 AFSCME; 18 LCV; 86.17% Conservative Voting Percentage

So, looking at vote analyses by six different ideological groups, all three MN GOP congressmen compiled a Conservative Voting Percentage of between 86%-90% during the 2015-16 Congress. Emmer comes out slightly ahead of Kline, with Paulsen not far behind. Given that Emmet’s CD is by far the most Republican in the state, his 89.83% Conservative Voting Percentage is a bit disappointing, but, looking at it from that angle, Erik Paulsen gives us the most “bang for the buck” (a Conservative Voting Percentage of 86.17% in a district in which Trump barely broke 40%).

Paulsen’s voting record is not perfect, but he would be a bit to the right of your average Senate Republican, which would be pretty darn good for a senator from a state that hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1972. Paulsen greatly outperformed Trump in affluent Twin Cities suburbs in 2016, and would be one of our strongest candidates for the U.S. Senate (although ex-Gov. Pawlenty would be even better).