The Turks have a simple position....no Kurdish homeland on their border, period. I don’t see the US able to counter that position. Keeping Incirlik open and US military operations continuing....are now a major question-mark. Given the slide since the coup, it’s just a matter of time before we are chased out of Turkey.
On the Kurd thing...if we start to accept this idea...it affects four significant countries in the region, and I think it just opens up a bunch of problems on down the line.
I know how complicated it is.
We are not totally out of the bargaining chips. We are still the big dog militarily, if we want to be.
Israel’s back is to the wall, they will not flinch.
Iran is not a potent as they seem militarily, nor economically.
Trump and Tillerson are not Obama and Kerry.
Erdogan is in his own trouble. Economically, credibility (with Efrin) and elections coming. He thinks he is God, God knows he is not.
The Kemalists are not all dead. I see signs of their publications. Erdogan has largely left them alone. They have not been put in jail. Erdogan is afraid of them.
He has the Kurds unified and angry. Not a good thing.
Best thing that could happen is for Erdogan and Tillerson have some honest discussion and lay all the cards on the table and give him room to back away from the abyss.
If not? Erdogan is not sustainable.
Could a Kurdistan Republic composed of Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan, with access to the sea be created? That is the multi-billion dollar question. Because we’ll be propping it up with billions a year for the rest of time, if it’s anything like the other (mostly) non-oil-producing Muslim states in the region. Between the klepto leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan and the commie leaders of the PYD, is there any wonder that decision makers are hesitant? If they were anything like Israelis, sure? But Kurds aren’t Jews.
Weirdly enough, if we could stand a Kurdistan Republic up, we wouldn’t need Incirlik. And massive military bases there would stimulate the local economy even without a formal aid program.