I know how complicated it is.
We are not totally out of the bargaining chips. We are still the big dog militarily, if we want to be.
Israel’s back is to the wall, they will not flinch.
Iran is not a potent as they seem militarily, nor economically.
Trump and Tillerson are not Obama and Kerry.
Erdogan is in his own trouble. Economically, credibility (with Efrin) and elections coming. He thinks he is God, God knows he is not.
The Kemalists are not all dead. I see signs of their publications. Erdogan has largely left them alone. They have not been put in jail. Erdogan is afraid of them.
He has the Kurds unified and angry. Not a good thing.
Best thing that could happen is for Erdogan and Tillerson have some honest discussion and lay all the cards on the table and give him room to back away from the abyss.
If not? Erdogan is not sustainable.
Health-wise, Erdogan is not likely to be around in five years. He’s got various issues. The bigger question will be if the state party will accept Erdogan’s son stepping in to fill dad’s shoes (Bilal Erdogan). If you back over the past decade, junior has been in and out of the news...over suggested money-laundering in Europe. Court episodes get dropped...mostly over limited evidence.
I think junior will take over for dad, and the current mess will evolve into different type of crisis. The days of value for Incirlik are long-gone. I’d be the last one to say some Kurd-state is the best solution...you’d just end up with a Erdogan-like-Kurd boss in five years and marginal stability.
On a separate note, I saw where the Russians are working up a deal to build a nuke energy plant in Saudi Arabia. That will help to hype the whole region.