Posted on 03/22/2018 8:41:23 AM PDT by Kaslin
Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss-Up, Tilt Republican). Fourteen more are modestly competitive while leaning in the GOP direction. Finally, 26 others might be at risk depending upon the political environment this fall.
Seven Republican seats are already tilting or leaning to the Democrats. These are races where Republican incumbents like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) retired.
Another 13 races are rated as pure toss-ups bringing the number of top-tier Democratic opportunities to 20. Five (5) are found in Pennsylvania due to a court-ordered redistricting plan and most are suburban districts.
Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups.
While these realities are encouraging for Democrats, they can't win the majority without defeating some Republican candidates who are currently favored. In fact, control might be determined by the results in eight (8) Republican seats currently rated as barely tilting in favor of the incumbent party. While each race has its own distinct characteristics, the results are likely to be reflective of the national political dialogue.
For example, Minnesota-3 could be decided by the electoral power of the Republican tax-cuts. In a district Clinton won by 9 points, Democrats hope to use that issue against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen. On the other hand, Paulsen believes that "tax cuts and regulatory reform have created real momentum in our economy." If the tax cut message works, it will help Paulsen keep his job along with many other Republicans in competitive districts.
In Texas-3, John Culberson was seen early on as a potential target for Democrats. Clinton narrowly won his district and the incumbent was slow to build a campaign team and fundraise. But he may have caught a break due to the deep divide between progressives and more centrist candidates. National Democratic strategists openly opposed progressive Laura Moser in the primary, but she made it to the run-off anyhow.
The Democratic civil war may benefit Culberson and other Republicans hoping to keep their jobs. If progressive candidates like Moser are nominated, it could turn off more pragmatic voters. On the other hand, if more centrist Democrats are nominated, it's not clear whether progressive voters will maintain their enthusiasm to vote in November.
If tax cuts and the Democratic civil war help candidates like Paulsen and Culberson win, the GOP might have a decent election night and retain narrow control of the House. Still, even a good night for Paul Ryan's party would probably mean losing 15-20 seats.
On the other hand, there's a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi's team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010.
Civil war within 12 months?
How many Democrat seats are at a high level of risk to switch to Republican?
So they discuss potential GOP at risk or possible turn over seats.
What about the Dems? Are everyone of their seats secure for them?
Unknown how many Democrat seats at risk, but
it is more difficult to "get out the vote" in a non-presidential election year.
Many voters will get complacent and fail to show up to vote.
Complacency is the conservative challenge, not the Democrats.
Volunteer to rally the troops !
Do they seriously think this will help them in November? It'll help the dems who will use it as a campaign plus what great negotiators they are.
Beyond disgusted.
I’m all out of give a damn.
/shrug
The Republican Party needs an enema, and getting wiped out in November is one way to do it.
Sure it will impact Trump in the short-term, but hopefully they’ll have their act together for 2020, and get rid of the deadwood in the meantime.
None. He lists two as toss-ups and a couple as only tilting Democrat. Three issues are apparently feeding the chance of Democrat pickups. The first is the tax bill and what the loss of the SALT deduction does to Republicans in Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, California, and New Jersey. The second is the Pennsylvania redistricting. And the third are the large number of retirements removing any advantage an incumbent might have. On the other hand the election is over seven months away. A lot can happen in that time.
The fourth issue feeding the chance of Democrat pickups is that the GOP has so badly damaged their credibility as a political party that even many voters in their own base will stay home.
Fight like every seat is at risk!
Absolutely.
Civil War? So be it! If the president doesn’t veto this proposed budget I will not vote this November. If that means the rats take over; they are already in charge as far as I am concerned. Bring a CW on and I’ll gather up my guns and join in. Every country can use a revolution once in a while and at present we are nearly there.
(Not that my vote matters here in rat infested NJ anyway).
figures
After this budget bill there will be far more “at-risk” seats.
People stay home when the only option is a sell-out loser.
The fear of this must be instilled in the libs.
They need to know in no uncertain terms that any action taken against the rightfully elected president of the United States will be viewed as a hostile attack on our country. It will be viewed as sedition and rebellion and dealt with as such.
WAKE UP!!!
Yeah, it’s not hard to calculate, is it?
If the messaging for the fall from the GOP is going to be the same as they used in the PA-18 special election, the republicans will lose the house. PERIOD.
They will gain Senate seats, but they are going to lose far more than 22 or 23 seats and lose the house.
I have never seen such utter incompetence in all my life.
Then he had best get to leading these useless jerks.
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