Of course, they should probably think long and hard about buying into the late data, too.
Nate Silver, "Final Update," November 8, 2016...
Posted on 06/14/2019 12:21:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Democrats and Republicans alike are skeptical of early polls predicting a landslide victory for Democrat Joe Biden over President Trump on Election Day 2020.
To Trump and Republicans, the polls are fake news and no more reliable than surveys predicting Hillary Clinton would be elected president in 2016.
Some Democrats are equally skeptical, warning their party not to buy into the early data.
“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster.
While Trump argues the polls undersell his support, some Democrats say surveys showing Biden well ahead of the Democratic field are not to be trusted.
Both sides think a close race in 2020 is likely and that surveys showing Biden and other Democrats with huge leads aren’t likely to reflect Election Day’s reality.
“Anyone who believes that the Democratic candidate is headed for a landslide victory right now is doomed to repeat the tragic history of 2016,” Kofinis said. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls this far out from the general election.”
The doubts surrounding polls underscore the degree to which confidence in the polling industry collapsed in 2016, when much of the public was blindsided by Trump’s victory.
That memory remains especially fresh for Democrats, who are wary of anything that might lead to overconfidence for their party.
In recent days, Democrats have had some good polling news.
A Quinnipiac University national survey released this week found Biden leading Trump by 13 points, with pollster Tim Malloy saying the former vice president was ahead by “landslide proportions.”
A Morning Consult national survey released shortly after the Quinnipiac poll backed it up, finding both Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading Trump by double-digits.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
A Quinnipiac University national survey ...................
August 25, 2016 - Clinton Tops 50 Percent, Leads Trump By 10 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Like Clinton More Than Trump - But Not Much
October 19, 2016 - Clinton Tops Trump By 7 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Voters Say Media Is Biased Against Trump
Of course, they should probably think long and hard about buying into the late data, too.
Nate Silver, "Final Update," November 8, 2016...
Yep, Democrats should be concerned.
and let’s all remember, that 2020 will be different from 2016, and not just because a different Democrat opponent will be taking on Trump.
In 2016, a political newcomer, Donald Trump, was taking on the political behemoth Hillary Clinton.
In 2020, an incumbent Trump, with a four year track record of major achievements, will be running for re-election.
They won’t be able to throw out issues such as Stormy Daniels and tapes of private conversations with profanity said by Trump. Been there, done that. That stuff is baked into the cake.
And the Democrats are going full force socialist/radical on us. The American people will face a sharp clear choice in 2020. There’s no nuance about where these Democrats are at in this election . Whoever survives on the Democrat side will be full force socialist/radical.
These polls are worrisome.
There doesn’t seem to be a path to 270 Electoral Votes for Trump.
They just can’t face that they were wrong.
What were the percentages election night?
Hillary 86% & DJT 14%?
I think this is pushed out more to get the Dem base to select Biden as a nominee, telling them that he can beat Trump. Sure he can, the same way that Hillary did.
Clinton was the most hated political figure in our time, Biden is not.
I agree with this poll 100%
Dems have it in the bag!
They can just skip Mi, Mn, Oh, Pa entirely.
No reason at all to even fly over..
My take on 2016 and media polls is they stopped trying to be predictive and started trying to be persuasive. To encourage Democrats and discourage Republicans. The goal being to so discourage Republicans they mentally gave up and didn’t go out to vote. I believe it backfired. More Democrats felt no need to go vote because it was a locked in win. Republicans rallied against perceived adversity and got out the vote.
It’ll be interesting to see if there are any true predictive polls in the coming year.
I’m operating like Trump is 15 points behind whomever.
And I’ll operate that way ‘til the day after the election.
If anyone calls, I will claim to be a YUGE Biden fan.
Good point about polls being persuasive.
The recent Quinipeeac(sp?) poll, which showed Biden ahead of Trump by 53 to 40%, is just such a poll. They are pushing this out there, I’m sure, to try to show how unpopular Trump is. If I recall correctly, every single Democrat running, from Biden to Pete Buttgig(sp?), was winning comfortably against Trump. This is just too hard to believe.
WE ARE DOOMED I TELL YOU!!!!!! DOOOMMMMEEEDDDD!!!!!
...time for lunch.
I agree. I also think there’s a fair number of stealth Trump supports who won’t tell a pollster that they are. They either don’t get counted or counted incorrectly, again, skewing the polls to being less than useful.
You’re not the real Scott Adams are you? Big fan here, especially his blog.
On the other hand, in 2016 the DNC underestimated Trump, and assumed Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, would reliably go blue as always. They won’t make either mistake again in 2020.
Why would anyone believe that Trump will lose the support of his 2016 voters? Are they relying on the absence of Hillary Clinton on the ballot?
It seems to me that Trump is in a good position to win bigger than in 2016. The economy is very good; he has defended religious liberty consistently; our State Department certainly has a great Secretary in Pompeo; unemployment is very low; the MSM is disgustingly biased as most people are now aware; the Democrats and news media’s lousy behavior toward Judge Kavanaugh and the Covington Catholic kids, esp. Nick Sandmann. That’s just the beginning.
I could add the Democrat party’s endorsement of all sorts of depravity like transgender rights which supercede the safety of little girls; their blatantly anti-Catholic/anti-Christian rhetoric; the socialist platform which calls for government ownership of all properties, higher taxation, etc.; the favoring of Muslims over Jews and Christians; the attitude that everyone who is not a leftist/Democrat is racist, homophobic, a hater, Islamophobic, etc.
Notice how Democrats are not interested in defending the Hindus among us, Mormons, the Buddhists, etc? They only defend Muslims whose plan is to destroy Christianity and western culture.
I predict Donald Trump will win re-election easily not by a landslide, but by a wider margin that in 2016. He may even win the popular vote. In fact I really hope he does, and all those blue states which passed laws that said their electoral votes would go to the winner of the popular vote -well, that would be ironic, wouldn’t it?
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