Posted on 10/07/2020 12:12:06 PM PDT by LeonardFMason
The most accurate poll for the 2016 presidential election now says that President Donald Trump is just 2.6 percentage points behind Democrat Joe Biden. Four years ago, IBD/TIPP said the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton was closer than other national polls, and it was found to be the most accurate predictor of that election and the previous three. The latest IBD/TIPP poll results show a tightening race between Trump and Biden among likely voters: •48.6% support Biden and 45.9% support Trump. That difference is within the margin of error. •A previous IBD/TIPP poll, whose results were released Sept. 21, showed Biden with a lead of 5.6 percentage points. •74% of registered voters who said they will vote for Trump back him strongly, while 66% of Biden voters said the same about their preferred candidate. •19% of registered voters said they are at least somewhat likely to change their mind about who they vote for before Election Day, including 26% of Trump voters and 13% of Biden voters. •45% said they think Trump will win the election, while 36% said they think Biden will win. •White voters support Trump, 53% to 42%. •Hispanic voters support Biden, 60% to 36.5%. •Black voters support Biden, 76% to 15%. •Biden leads among voters in the 18-24 age group (70% to 21%) and voters aged 65 and older (51.5% to 44%). The poll was conducted from Sept. 30-Oct. 1 among 1,221 registered voters, including 1,023 likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for the registered voters sample and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the likely voters sample. The sample of likely voters included 411 Democrats, 403 Republicans, and 201 independents.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
L8r
Odds are pretty high Republicans are lying to pollsters. There are not 25% Never Trumpers all of a sudden.
With these sample sizes, it would not take many lying to destroy the poll. 50 GOP voters giving the wrong answer in a 1000 sample poll moves the result 10%. It’s double effect. Subtracts from one and adds to the other.
Here’s my response to polls
“ polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population”
polls are for sheep. If you have your own mind, then what someone else is thinking (or doing) is not important.
That does not even go into the entire accuracy issue. They are not trustworthy. So, we are posting in breaking news - an inaccurate opinion - for the purpose of psyops.
Ridiculous. Conservatives are individualists. We are don’t have herd mentality, Ie the masses /followers/ No mind of their own
Rassmussen’s poll is BS. What I want to know is why he he published it. It’s so bullsh*tty that I won’t even accept it as an outlier.
The poll is old, from pre-Covid diagnosis of Trump. But if Biden got only a temporary bounce in the past week, which is highly likely, then when that deflates this poll is probably a good reflection of the race.
conservativepoet wrote:
“I suspect mischief. Ugly things are happening in DC. The following is interesting. I don’t think people are changing their votes.
Pollster Who Shows Trump Ahead Nationally Says Florida Is Almost Out of Reach for Biden – Trump is Doing Great
“Ugly things are happening in DC...”
Is someone bribing or threatening the pollsters?
More and more polling is internet based...you can’t verify if one person is doing multiple voting.
Rasmussen also includes a selected panel of people. Somehow Trump dropped 8% after he chose Barrett on the Rasmussen poll. I knocked Rasmussen off my Twitter feed. His chosen panel is either highly accurate or crap, but I don’t need to see it anymore... at least for a while.
” Some one explain how that is happening without Trump leading in Michigan. Please “
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Many Trump voters either do not participate in polls or lie to the callers...
In our little Republican town, I see literally NO Trump yard signs, a few yard signs for local R candidates, and a few more signs for locals Ds with some Biden/Harris signs...
Historically, this town votes R approaching 60%...
This tells me that either Trump signs have been stolen...Some Ds are pond scum!
or, that Trump voters are keeping quiet, possibly for fear of retribution...a brick (or worse) through the front window...
And, as in 2016, I think this is reflecting in the polling...
But, come November 3rd, the Trump folks will make their statement...
The poll was conducted from Sept. 30-Oct. 1
“So it is over a week old, not taken over the same more recent time period as the other polls.”
So what? If you think there is that much play in the electorate from week to week you are wrong. +95% percent of voters have made up their minds already.
This is a choice between LIGHT and DARKNESS.
Black mail and threat is how the Dems/communists work. Why not with pollsters?
Rasmussen’s poll got all funky right before the debates as well. Trump went from like 53 to 46 approval overnight????? Then after the debate when it went up it looked like Trump won the debate.
That's good news about James in Michigsn, and isn't a big surprise, but I have to try to exclude my usual optimism. :^)
The closer we get to the election, the more honest pollsters start reporting reality. They want to help Biden, but are more concerned with their own reputations.
“between Trump and Biden among likely voters: •48.6% support Biden and 45.9% support Trump.”
Translation: Trump 63% Biden 37%
Biden is the next McGovern
She did win the popular vote. Isn’t that what national polls are measuring?
OK, so right now Trump is losing, but losing less than he was. Let’s hope he tightens up his campaign to talk about issues that matter like gun control.
Lighten up folks. Trump is on his way to securing a second term.
It can’t be, we are going to take Minn and Mich.
I know, I don’t get it either. Just wow.
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