Posted on 10/21/2020 1:23:58 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Forty-nine percent of likely Minnesota voters support former Vice President Joe Biden, while 44 percent support President Donald Trump, a poll by Change Research commissioned by MinnPost finds.
The online poll was conducted among 1,021 likely voters in Minnesota last week, from Oct. 12 to Oct. 15, and the results margin of sampling error is 3.1 percentage points.
Separated by just five points and within the margin of error, this represents the closest the two presidential candidates have been in a recent public poll.
Recent polling
Fewer pollsters have surveyed Minnesota lately compared to in August and early September, when the state had a brief flirtation with national media outlets as a more than remote possibility for flipping from blue to red. On Aug. 31, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 69 percent chance of winning the state, giving Trump a little less than a third, the closest the site has had the race before or since.
More recently, pundits have placed Minnesota in the much more likely blue column. As of Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 92 percent chance of winning the state, his highest odds since the race began. The sites polling average put Biden at 50.7 percent, compared to Trumps 41.6 percent a spread of 9.1 points. Polls done in September and October have suggested Biden ahead by as little as 4 points and as many as 17.
Some recent polls suggest the race may be tightening as Election Day nears, though. A SurveyUSA poll released in early October found Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points, a slightly larger margin than the one in the MinnPost/Change Research poll, compared to 9 points in early September.
Change Researchs methodology involves targeting survey takers based on geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites and on
(Excerpt) Read more at minnpost.com ...
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris deserve 0 electoral votes. What did THEY ever do to earn 1?
They have a shot at Delaware.
bump info
I’m only passing on what I am receiving. The guy that is doing this polling is really good. His primary business is predictive data science where you must be accurate. Remember he is also independent.
D +6 and mid 80s for R support of Trump.
[Is Trump winning anywhere?]
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894272/posts
[D +6 and mid 80s for R support of Trump.]
I would love to believe you friend of a friends numbers, if Oregon is competitive, then Mr. Trump gets about 55% and the GOP would likely retake the House and pick up several Senate seats. I would love to believe them, but I dare not.
I cannot and will not do so for the sake of my mental health. Better to be prepared for a tight race and possible loss. However, if this best possible scenario did come to pass, I would quietly bask in my establishment co-workers disappointment and horror.
It’s there nonpartisan and scientific!
1. after the first time watching a political TV ad, subsequent runs are ignored ... campaigns are wasting their money ... they only way a bazillion ads will be watched is if a bazillion different AND entertaining ads are produced ... any candidate with a BIG TV ad budget would do better allocating half the money for ad production and half the money for advertising time ...
2. i doubt if campaign junk mail is ever read at all by anyone ...
“Hard to believe the NJ, OR, VA, CO numbers but I guess we will see.”
there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate; i found that hard to believe, but that’s consistent with DarthVadar’s numbers ...
“This has made it difficult for Democrats to go door to door and mobilize their base”
actually, a couple of months ago the biden campaign (such as it is) proudly and publicly announced that there would be NO ground game ... that they were going 100% digital and virtual GOTV ...
apparently that didn’t work out too well, and they panicked and tried to cobble together a national ground GOTV campaign in the last couple of weeks, something that the Trump campaign has been building for over four years ...
[there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate; i found that hard to believe, but thats consistent with DarthVadars numbers ...]
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3894272/posts
“there was one other poll that claimed that Gardner and Hickenlooper were tied for Senate;”
I had predicted three certain GOP senate losses: McSally (AZ); Collins (ME); and Gardner (CO). Possible GOP senate losses: Graham (SC); Ernst (IA). Certain GOP senate pick-ups: AL. Possible GOP pick-up: MI.
If the GOP holds the senate, it will likely be by no more than 2 (i.e., 51-49).
He only lost Minnesota by 45,000 votes, 1.5% in 2016. He has given three rallies in Minnesota. The Iron Range has 8 mayors backing Trump. The mining, farming, shipping and manufacturing industries are all backing Trump. The Twin Cities have had riots. How can he be down?
So I have a friend who lives in the American part of the state, the area the Governor said is only full of rocks and cows.
They are really fired up about President Trump. The key is voter turnout. Turnout is historically low out there because they know the zillions of lib idiots in the Twin Cities control everything. Not this time. Trump in a landslide.
” geography, age, gender, race and partisan identification via advertisements on websites “
Unless they also balanced for education the poll is worthless. The Iron Range miners are only 27% college educated. People most likely to take Internet polls are college educated.
Turn those small town counties “deep blood red.”
Graham’s not going to lose ...
Polls are not News....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.