Posted on 12/09/2023 10:41:52 AM PST by lasereye
The Iowa caucuses are less than six weeks away, and only eleven months remain until Election Day 2024. So maybe it is a good time to see what voters think before the nomination process begins.
In the current Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump is up by +2.
--snip--
Let’s look at three items from the polls likely to impact the 2024 election: Joe Biden’s job approval numbers, candidate favorability, and what voters believe are the country’s most serious issues.
--snip--
An analysis of these numbers is pretty straightforward. My first impression is how consistent they are.
Biden’s job disapproval hovers around 55%. Clearly, voters do not believe he is doing a good job as president.
The real issue for Biden is the strongly disapproving numbers averaging nearly 44%. These folks are the ones with the torches and pitchforks. Trump would need the support of only an additional seven or eight percent of the mildly disaffected to get elected.
Favorability ratings are generally underwater for both candidates. The Harris poll was the only one to give either a positive number, which was Trump at +7. Averaging the numbers gives Trump a -8.6 favorability and Biden a -15. Since neither candidate is close to 50%, we will likely choose the person voters see as the lesser of two evils.
The issues voters see as most important are not trending in Biden’s direction. The economy, inflation, immigration, and protecting democracy favor Trump. Climate change did not get high numbers in most polls. Abortion, which was a significant issue in the 2022 midterm elections, is now mostly in the low single digits.
Can the political landscape change before Election Day? Of course. But for now, the Real Clear Politics average of Trump +2 seems justified.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
It’s hard to believe, but Biden still polls better than either Newsome or Harris. So, while getting Biden out of the way presents its own challenges, finding a replacement ticket that won’t do even worse than him, may be even harder.
All statewide Democrats we have, are there because Trump endorsement!
Who are the statewide Democrats?
And that is insane to think about.
Harris barely registered in her home state when she was running.
They have nothing.
And of the Democrat governors, not a one is worth a damn and damn near all of them are where they are because of a few cities in their respective states put them over the top and they’re all disasters.
“ All statewide Democrats we have, are there because Trump endorsement!
At least in AZ Trump endorsement is a kiss of death”
Hahahaha. Hahaha
Em…no.
An uphill battle for Trump with the lying POS MSM in Biden’s pocket.
Governor, secretary of state, Attorney general. Senators.
Positions of the likes of Treasurer, Supervisor of Educations, supervisor of mines, etc, etc are Republicans
Em.. Yes!
No doubt in my mind.
I actually like Trump, but I am realistic.
I know unfortunately a lot of former or current Republicans and independents who voted for Biden and will again. Just because they hate Trump?!
Some still think that Trump colluded with Putin!!!
That’s comedy
> It’s hard to believe, but Biden still polls better than either Newsom or Harris. <
Cue the Beatles song,” Michelle”.
Cry me a river.
Go away DU clown.
Did the media post this imbecilic self-absorbed statement, or did Trump? It’s not the media who’s causing the disdain for Trump, it’s Trump’s own words and actions.
“So many people are asking what I thought of history’s lowest rated “presidential” debate, & how would I rate the players. It’s so easy to be a critic, but who on this subject would be better than me. To begin with, I thought Ron DeSanctimonious was terrible, with his bobble head facial movements & his walking on eggs, but that Sloppy Chris Christie was worse. He’s not fit, mentally or physically, to be President plus, he suffers from TDS, or Trump Derangement Syndrome, at levels not seen before. In other words, he is a “sick puppy.” On top of it all, his poll numbers are just 1%, in a class with “Aida” Hutchinson. He’s dead, but so is Ron, whose weird bobbing head and fresh mouth, make his high heels look good - He’s walking on eggs! Birdbrain looked different & lost, but I give her second place. Vivek WINS because he thinks l’m great. The biggest loser was Megyn Kelly, what the hell happened to her? She has lost whatever she once had, which wasn’t very much. Some things never change!”
And Abortion, which is the 3rd theme. I don’t think they have ramped up the abortion theme yet. That and the Nazi portrayal are enough to sink Republican hopes.
I think the abortion question on some swing states makes knowing results very difficult.
However, if it is Trump versus Slow Joe Biden, then Democrats will do absolutely ANYTHING to win. There will be vote litigation, challenging of delegates, last minute changes to voting rules, ballot harvesting, etc. The voter fraud will be overwhelming by the Democrats and they will litigate to insure that the fraud fix works.
If things look bad, they may even do the unthinkable and get the Deep State to do another Kennedy-style Presidential change.
BTT
Thoughtful analysis, thanks.
IMHO, it does not matter one whit.
So long as the DemoNaziCommie ETM (election theft machine) remains in place ready to steal the next election, it will do so. Period. No matter how far ahead PDJT is, will be.
There’s no question that the DemoETM works. It did an outstanding job of installing Biden and Ineligible Harris in 2020.
DeSantis founded Freedom Caucus and has been always staunch conservative, a lot more then Trump!
Yet, nowadays, Trump spends most of his money left from lawyer’s fees on trashing him.
Never attack fellow Republican was Ronald Reagan 11th commandments. Trump violates this one all the time!
I will never give any more money to Trump! (If he wins the nomination, I plan to vote for him, but I would really like somebody else.)
Biden has an age problem and it gets worse every day.
We’ve already seen Trump v s Biden. When Trump moved into statistical win territory they stopped counting and went out to find more votes for the loser Biden.
Trump beat Hillary and Trump beat Biden. He’ll do it again and they’ll do it again.
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