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Yemen: U.S. Deployment May Trigger Attacks
Strategic Forecasting | 7 March 2002

Posted on 03/08/2002 8:41:48 AM PST by Bad~Rodeo

The United States plans to deploy up to 100 soldiers to Yemen to train local security forces and assist in Yemen's hunt for al Qaeda. But strong opposition to the presence of U.S. forces in the country remains, and the mission may trigger a surge in attacks against U.S. assets and personnel.

Analysis

Approximately 100 American soldiers soon will be deployed to Yemen to train local security forces, act as military advisers and assist in the government's hunt for al Qaeda, Yemeni government officials have confirmed to Reuters. The Wall Street Journal reported March 1 that Washington had approved the deployment.

Yemen, located on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is considered a likely refuge for al Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan, and the U.S. mission is designed to deny them sanctuary there. However, opposition to a U.S. military presence remains high, even among members of the government. President Ali Abdallah Salih's decision to permit greater U.S. involvement in domestic military operations may prompt opponents to resort to violence against U.S. assets and personnel in the coming months.

The deployment marks a significant expansion in military relations between Yemen and the United States. For years, Washington has conducted limited training missions for Yemeni troops, as part the International Military Education and Training assistance program.

However, the United States has several reasons to want to build on that relationship and expand its presence in Yemen. Beyond the immediate goal of denying al Qaeda a place to regroup, Washington also hopes to build a Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) facility on the Yemeni island of Socotra and secure access to strategic sea lanes in the Red and Arabian seas.

Yemen is more like the Wild West than a modern, industrial society. Firefights in the capital are common, much of the population carries weapons, arms smugglers and drug traffickers transit Yemen unmolested and the country serves as a networking base for militant groups from throughout the Middle East.

Moreover, complex tribal affiliations still shape national politics, and huge swathes of territory remain beyond the government's control. Until 1990, the country was divided into southern and northern Yemen, with rival governments and continual clashes between the two sides. After reunification, the northern political leadership gained dominance over the south, leaving southerners feeling marginalized and resentful.

The new U.S. deployment reportedly will focus primarily on security along Yemen's 1,500-mile coastline. They will train 2,000 Yemeni security personnel at a coast guard training center to be built in Aden, The Associated Press reported March 2. Washington also will provide at least 15 boats fitted with high-tech communications equipment.

Aden, however, is a stronghold for those who oppose Salih's administration, and the U.S. military presence may aggravate an already explosive situation. The October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in the port of Aden was an attempt by extremists to discourage the growing presence of U.S. military forces on the Arabian Peninsula.

Opponents of the government and radical groups fear that an established U.S. military presence will result in a situation similar to that in neighboring Saudi Arabia. Though U.S. forces may not intervene in the case of an actual coup attempt there, they provide the government and military with expertise, technology, weapons, intelligence and other assistance that act as added insurance against an overthrow of the government. Moreover, opposition forces in Yemen fear that Salih's administration may exploit U.S. military assistance to tighten Sanaa's control over southern Yemen and further marginalize political opponents.

This is why even some members of the government oppose the U.S. deployment. For instance, Islamist opposition party Islah is the junior partner in the coalition led by Salih's General People's Congress. Yet Islah leaders have repeatedly condemned the U.S. military's presence. Islah derives its support from the Wahabbi tribes in the north and has been linked to Osama bin Laden.

After the USS Cole bombing, Sanaa reportedly denied U.S. investigators access to Sheik Abdul-Majeed al-Zindani, the leader of Islah's armed wing, and Ali Mohsen, the commander of the northern region -- who, according to the Christian Science Monitor, is related by marriage to Salih. Though both are members of the government, they may have ties to factions opposed to cooperation with the U.S. military.

U.S. soldiers will face a serious dilemma in Yemen, since they cannot be certain of their security. Salih's administration will no doubt handpick the Yemeni forces to be trained -- but even that is no guarantee of safety, since hostile factions within the government may obtain information about training exercises.

Operating in a potentially hostile environment - as well as with possibly hostile members of the security forces, government and populace -- will constrain the effectiveness of the U.S. mission in every aspect. The situation is already volatile, and the expansion of a U.S. military presence could trigger another explosion.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: geopolitics; terrorwar

1 posted on 03/08/2002 8:41:48 AM PST by Bad~Rodeo
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To: Bad~Rodeo
US should seize Socotra Island. Use it as a Nava/Air Base and staging area for our ops. Easily defended. Could contruct air field larger and much closer to the action than Diego Garcia Is.
2 posted on 03/08/2002 9:38:06 AM PST by donozark
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To: Bad~Rodeo
Recon by Fire. Let's see what develops and how many scorpion nests they uncover.
3 posted on 03/08/2002 9:43:20 AM PST by TADSLOS
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To: Bad~Rodeo
"Yemen: U.S. Deployment May Trigger Attacks"

Warning, water may be WET.

4 posted on 03/08/2002 10:06:08 AM PST by Frances_Marion
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To: Frances_Marion
Dear Peace loving Citizens of Yemen: Da Boogie Man Comin' ta getcha!.........And there's not a D*** thing you can do about it
5 posted on 03/08/2002 10:09:55 AM PST by WyCoKsRepublican
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To: Bad~Rodeo
Can't we just take over the planet and be done with it already?
6 posted on 03/08/2002 12:02:20 PM PST by Robear
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To: Black Jade
Thought you'd be interested in this.

IIRC, doesn't the bin Mahfouz(sp?) family own a big stake in the oil pipelines there? I'm thinking one of them runs a Canadian oil company that either owns a big part of the oil pipeline or won the exploration rights in that "untamed" territory, though I can't find it in my notes anywhere.

I did come across this old info in repy #27 by Betty Jo.

Anyway, in researching all of this I found that Vernon Jordan, of Monica fame , represented one Mohammad Hussein Al-Amoudi, who headed the National Commercial Bank of Saudi, having taken over for Khalid bin Mahfouz.This Khalid and his son,Abdul Rahman used this bank to get millions of $$$ to bin Laden.Guess what the bin Mahfouzs also do? They own Yemen Holdings Limited,which along with PSA Mid-East Private Limited make up Yeminvest which is the big developer of the Port of Aden. Whats my point? Vernon Jordan,friend of Bill, represents two Sheihks who funnel $$$ to bin Laden, who are biggies in the Port of Aden development

And this is an excellent review thread COLE BOMBING:DID YEMEN & ADEN PORT AUTHORITIES COOPERATE w/ISLAMIC TERRORISTS? from October of 2000. I'd forgotten about Helms. I may have to change my assessment of why some republican senators are retiring.

7 posted on 03/08/2002 1:25:49 PM PST by Lion's Cub
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To: *TerrorWar;*Geopolitics
Check the Bump List folders for articles related to and descriptions of the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.
8 posted on 03/08/2002 2:06:27 PM PST by Free the USA
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
The outright seizure of Socotra Is. is LONG overdue IMO. Diego Garcia is just to far away from the action. Too small. Socotra could easily serve as a base of ops for not only SF but main force units. Naval assets as well as aerial. Air support could be "on-station" very rapidly. Socotra could be more easily defended than a base in Yemen proper.

I believe it was Tony Snow who referred to Yemen as "...a Club Med for terrorists." IMO it is Chechnya with an ocean view. Real nightmare for our troops. Imagine getting orders assigning you to Yemen as one of one-hundred US troops!

10 posted on 03/20/2002 3:35:06 AM PST by donozark
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
BTTT!!!!
12 posted on 03/20/2002 4:07:19 AM PST by E.G.C.
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Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
The same "right" we had to seize Iwo Jima, Guam, Okinawa, etc. A "right" clearly earned after the bombing of the Cole and certainly after Sept.11. If the UN doesn't like it? They can go pound salt.
14 posted on 03/20/2002 4:37:48 AM PST by donozark
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To: donozark
The same "right" we had to seize Iwo Jima, Guam, Okinawa, etc. A "right" clearly earned after the bombing of the Cole and certainly after Sept.11.

I whole-heartedly agree. Puting troops into Yemen as a base would be suicidal. Pakistan is bad--Yemen looks ten times worse to me. I remember the reports of the whole town of Aden gathering to watch the attack on the Cole.

15 posted on 03/20/2002 6:15:44 AM PST by Lion's Cub
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
bttt
17 posted on 03/20/2002 9:01:23 AM PST by mafree
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To: xzins
FYI.
18 posted on 03/20/2002 9:33:41 AM PST by aristeides
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To: tony cavanagh
Presumably your Hereford chaps are back in their old stomping grounds already.
19 posted on 03/20/2002 9:52:59 AM PST by Travis McGee
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To: Bad~Rodeo
This sounds absolutely bizarre. 100 US soldiers being sent to Yemen to help train their security forces hunt down Al-Queda operatives is insane. Yemenis have no intention of hunting, arresting or turning over any AQers. What is much more likely is that 100 US soldiers would wind up being held hostage or slaughtered and dragged around through the streets in fronmt of TV cameras as in Somalia.

If some US soldiers are going to be sent, why not an army into Yemen and another into Saudi Arabia? We're going to fight these lunatics sooner or later or become their servants. All of this idiotic blather being printed as though these maniacs are our allies is getting on my nerves.

20 posted on 03/20/2002 11:37:55 AM PST by Twodees
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To: Bad~Rodeo;Black Jade;Lions Cub;OKCSubmariner;Travis McGee;aristeides;Mewzilla;archy;Fred Mertz
Memories!

The feds should just hire us at FR to do all their spooky research!

Any body else think the feds DONT want to know what's up?

Re reading all the old Yemen-Cole-Al-Amoudi-Bin Mahfouz articles brings back all the old memories!

21 posted on 03/21/2002 8:48:27 PM PST by Betty Jo
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
As to what the "UN thinks?" I pretty well addressed that with my comment "...they can go pound salt."

Socotra has been officially part of Yemen for 11 years. Prior to that S. Yemen. Prior to that the Brits used it for troop base, just as I am suggesting we do.

I said nothing about seizing it in perpetuity. Just as long as we need it. GWB has said this war will last 8-10 years. Fine. After that, residents will benefit from the much improved port facilities/airfields that we most assuredly would construct.

We seized alot of territory during WW2. Gave it all back. Even Iwo. Where we lost upwards of 25K casualties. However, it did serve as a forward base of ops and would have been of great need had we needed to fight a land war in Japan proper. Also, the airfield saved the lives of approx.20K US Airmen that surely would have perished at sea. Otherwise, we could have bypassed it as we did Truk Is.

As for Georgia? Troop deployment minimal. Mostly instructors. Georgian military has proven itself incapable of dealing with "overflow" of Chechen guerrillas. Just as in Afghanistan, where Al quida flees to Pakistan, the Chechens flee to Georgia's Pankissy Valley. GWB's new found Russian buddy has approved of the US troop deployment.

Jade, methinks you dream about oil pipelines in your sleep. Honestly, GWB did not run for President because he believed there was an oil field under the WH.

Where is the oil in the Philippines? One of our largest deployments will be there. And please don't tell me the Spratly Islands. Using that analogy, then oil must be everywhere. And it is. Even in the Ozarks. In fact, during the price jump of the early eithties, several rigs were working not far from me.

Oil is everywhere. What matters is the amount, quality and ease of pumping it. Perhaps our need will be tempered somewhat if the drilling experiment in Alaska bears fruit. Specifically, we have gone down almost 3 miles. Later this summer scientists will attempt to break the 3 mile record. So far? Nothing significant. But remember, Prudhue Bay yielded a dozen or so dry holes, then BOOM! If this happens? We can tell the Middle East to "get lost!"

23 posted on 03/22/2002 6:41:16 AM PST by donozark
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To: donozark;Black Jade
Re: "Oil is everywhere"

There is a "Hydrogen Conspiracy".

Very shortly, oil will be history!

All of the death that "oil" is causing will be over with!

Yemen, as well as the other countries caught up in "oil" will be histories ancient facts!

24 posted on 03/22/2002 12:11:24 PM PST by Betty Jo
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To: The Bolt
More Alamoudi stuff!

Note all the different dates!

25 posted on 03/25/2002 12:27:53 PM PST by Betty Jo
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
Well Jade, I respect your opinion, I really do. Always read (or try to) your postings. However, "my idea" about taking Socotra Is. has everything to do with saving lives of our servicemen (and women) and nothing to do with oil. Specifically flight crews. Sorry, you do not know for a fact, it won't (save lives). History is replete with examples of such occuring. In addition to Iwo example I gave, only last fall a shot-up Chinook made it back safely to Pakistan from Afghanistan. What if it had not been able to land there? Had to go on to aircraft carriers. Could it have made it? Neither of us know the answer. We do know they survived. Why? Proximity of landing at secure field/border. Hundreds of examples throughout aviation history.

Another recent example? Recall one year ago the collision between our intel aircraft and Chinese fighter? Supposing they had landed on Taiwan and not Hainan Is. Would pilot/crew been awarded high honors? Would we have even known the details? Just another landing.

Sorry, but having a secure, forward area, closer to the action (pending,IMO), WILL save lives of our people. We are a nation at war. The gloves come off-or should at such time.

Serbia may not have had secure airfields for our aircrews to land on during WW2. But they did in fact save upwards of 1K Americans from the Nazis by getting them away from crash sites, para-landing sites, etc. Not the ideal way to exit and aircraft. But preferable to being captured by the Nazis. A secure Socotra Is, will save US lives, if my predictions (based on what experts have said) come true. Diego Garcia is simply too far away from the action.

As for oil? Oil can be found near Waco. Was that the reason our government attacked the Branch Davidians? Early settlers complained about "black, goey stuff" that came up through the ground in OK and WY. Thus bogging down their wagon trains. Oil can be found just about everywhere. Everytine there is and underwater earthquake, and some cases, above ground, oil flows out. San Clemente quake for one polluted water tables.

However, in laymans terms (no mud-engineer here) 3 main factors determine production: 1)Quantity extimated to be in a given area. 2)Proximity to surface/depth 3)Political climate.

The political climate in Alaska is ideal. Yet, last fall, one drunk with a deer rifle shutdown the Alaska pipeline for several days. What would a gang of exploding Palestinians/Chechins have done? C-4? One 82MM mortar round?

Only last week, an article posted here stated the pipeline in Columbia had been shutdown for a year or more, due to damage by FARC. Mostly gunfire and a few grenades.

Years ago, not far from here, "Bubba" shutdown a major E-W gas line. How? With a backhoe and obvious inability to read a map. Well-trained terrorist teams could easily shutdown any pipeline in the world.

While many of the areas you cited contain vast deposites of oil, it can likewise be found elsewhere. Horizontal drilling is now being utilized. Older fields can thus be exploited, previously thought "dry."

Spratly Islands? Sure, oil is there. But was the Vung Tau Trench our reason for entering VN in the 60s? Some would say so. Yet where is the production? The fact that Muslim terrs are holding US Missionaries hostage may have something to do with our involvement there (in Philippines). Also the proven prescence of "Al Quida" or whatever moniker of the day one chooses to label these Islamic extremists as. Mindanao has been a hotbed of such activity for years now. Some 60-odd nations have been listed as "home" to Al Quida and other terrs. Oil would obviously be present in many of these.

As for US earlier "befriending" Talibums and other low-lifes? Hey, it happens. My dad's generation got shot at by steel manufactured in Pittsburgh. I came home from VN with a Czech Mauser bayonet. VFW halls hereabouts are full of "war trophies" from virtually every country in the world. Some are now our "friends." Well, on the surface anyway. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" may be an Arab proverb, but most nations have from time to time, benefitted from such "contracts, and will continue to do so. Custer was lead into the Valley of the Little Big Horn by Indian scouts, who did not like the Souix Nation. Let us hope our "intel" is better than 7th Cav...

27 posted on 04/02/2002 6:38:00 AM PST by donozark
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
How do you gather intel without "boots" on the ground? Most of these SF Teams are in a training capacity. Putin has given approval to their deployment to Georgia. In fact, he welcomed it.

The entire mission of Al Quida and such groups is to remain as "invisible/untouchable" as possible. Why? They know they will be devastated by superior US firepower. Hence, they have dispersed to 60 some countries.

Would you have us sit on our asses and wait for another Sept.11? What then? Wait for another? And another? I say take the fight to the enemy. Hunt them down like dogs. Keep them running and guessing where we will hit them next. Kill them until we hear the lamentations of their women...

29 posted on 04/03/2002 6:15:22 PM PST by donozark
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