Posted on 06/02/2002 6:56:14 AM PDT by jern
GOP smells victory in 2002
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
NEW BERN - The Guilford County Republican Party, anticipating a strong showing at the polls in November, already has reserved a room for an election-night victory celebration at the Koury Convention Center.
"I'm excited," said Marcus Kindley, a 47-year old stockbroker who is also the Guilford County GOP chairman. "I can't wait."
The 500 Republicans gathered here for their annual two-day convention were in a giddy mood Saturday, assured that the political stars are in alignment for a robust Republican year.
The latest omen was the decision by Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins of Smithfield on Friday to draw legislative district lines more friendly to GOP candidates.
But the Republicans already believed that events were going their way. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, the former two-time Cabinet secretary and former American Red Cross president, has a commanding lead in the polls in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. President Bush, while not on the ballot, remains extremely popular in North Carolina.
And Republicans believe they have some powerful issues with which to bludgeon Democrats in the fall -- from tax hikes to the budget crisis.
"The low-hanging fruit is heavy on the limbs," said J. B. Coram, a 55-year-old cattle rancher from Scaly Mountain, suggesting that the Democrats were ripe for easy pickings.
In fact, the scenario in June is viewed so favorably by Republicans they are beginning to compare this year with the Republican landslide in 1994, when the Republicans captured the state House and nearly secured the state Senate, and also picked up several congressional seats.
"I look for it to be better than 1994," said state Rep. Frank Mitchell, a chicken farmer from Iredell County.
The political climate did not look nearly as rosy for Republicans last summer. The country was headed into a recession, and historically the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections. The impending retirement of Helms, the founder of the modern Republican Party in North Carolina, created an open seat and an opportunity for Democrats.
But the national political climate has changed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and polling for Republican and Democratic candidates in general has tipped more favorably toward Republicans.
President Bush has already been in North Carolina three times this year, and Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Raleigh and Charlotte later this month.
Although Bush will not be on the ticket this fall, most Republican leaders expect that Elizabeth Dole will. She has such a commanding lead in the polls that some GOP strategists think she will not only have coattails for other GOP candidates, but that her candidacy will draw more voters than usual to the polls.
Dole's candidacy was bolstered further Saturday when her famous husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, spoke to the convention. Other candidates complained bitterly that the party was giving Mrs. Dole an unfair advantage, but their protests were hardly a speed bump for her campaign.
Republicans think they got another break when the May 7 primary was delayed by the court battle over redistricting. While Dole seems to be breezing toward a primary rout against six little-known Republican opponents, the Democrats are engaged in a competitive, scrappy primary. The shortened general election campaign will also provide the Democrats with less time to attack Dole.
"Why am I worried?" laughed Jack Oliver, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the delayed primary. "I've got Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall telling everybody in North Carolina about the weaknesses of each other. Why do we need that to stop? Keep it going. Enjoy." He was referring to the three leading Democratic Senate candidates.
While the Helms seat has drawn most of the attention so far this year, the fight for control of the General Assembly is likely to move to center stage after the court ruling Friday.
The state House, where the Democrats hold a 62-58 majority, was already expected to be a battleground. Now, the new district maps -- assuming they are upheld on appeal -- are expected to put the Senate, where Democrats hold a 35-15 majority, in play.
"This will be a historic election for Republicans in the state of North Carolina," said Nelson Dollar, a GOP political consultant from Cary. "We will have an opportunity to take both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans are poised to take advantage of not only the new maps but also the issues, which are trending strongly toward the Republican Party."
The state budget crisis could also have a trickle-down effect politically, if Democratic county boards of commissioners are forced to raise taxes to make up for revenues withheld by the state.
But GOP leaders, while optimistic, also offer several cautionary notes. The economy remains a volatile X factor in the election. North Carolina, with its hard-hit manufacturing base, is likely to pull out of the recession slower than most of the rest of the country. No one knows who the voters might blame for the hard times.
The possibility of another terrorist attack might also introduce another powerful unknown into the election.
Despite more favorable districts, GOP strategists say privately that winning control of the General Assembly will not be easy. The Democrats have a stable of seasoned candidates and a much larger political war chest, and that will keep them competitive.
"All politics is local," said state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey of Durham County, quoting the old saw coined by former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "You still have to have the right candidate at the right place at the right time at the local level."
Staff writer Rob Christensen can be reached at 829-4532 or robc@newsobserver.com.
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Compared to who? Ted Kennedy? You like those seatbelts you're FORCED to wear by law? Thank Giddy. How about gun control? Federal subsidies? Abortion? Giddy Dolt will be at more Democratic press conferences you could shake a stick at. Jim Jeffords is conservative compared to Giddy
Or do you even know who she is?
I watched this Dole candidacy emerge with the early preemptive strikes against other candidates leaving Dole the field so that the primary can be a fundraising contest. If the NC GOP intends to inflict this socialist harridan on the US, your leadership could at least be as honest as you are in saying that this is about keeping a republican Senate seat, and not about electing a conservative.
Dole is trotting all over the country raising money, so don't try to tell the rest of the US to butt out of North Carolina's business. This will be North Carolina's business alone when North Carolinians alone are making the decision and putting up the money to run her in the election.
If Dole is the best candidate the GOP in North Carolina could come up with, then the NCGOP is moribund and should be abandoned by every conservative in the state. You intend to put this doddering old socialist in office to replace one of the few conservatives in the Senate and the entire US should be yelling at you for it. What you need to face mighty quickly is that Dole will lose this election because she isn't a conservative by the furthest stretch of any conservative's imagination. Dole will lose and Bowles will be inflicted on the country just as Hillary! was and you'll blame the conservative who refused to compromise principle and vote for a liberal, but it will be the fault of the GOP fatboys who made sure she would be the candidate.
What position do you hold in the NCGOP organization?
And you're not capable enough to intelligently cast a vote... but you obviously don't let that stop you.
The only way there will ever be a conservative party is when the GOP finally merges with the democrats and such a party is formed in reaction. The president we have now is intent on merging the two parties. There's no other conclusion which makes any sense given his actions.
The VAGOP ran a lifelong NAACP memeber and gungrabber for governor. Now North Carolina runs a tax and spend liberal for the Senate. You can't expect conservatives to vote republican when you run liberals for office, whether those conservatives have someone else to vote for or not. Watch the race and you'll see what I mean.
Let's have another one by all means. Maybe this time they'll just anoint Hillary Clinton emperor for life and be done with it.
Not even a little bit. Bush is a socialist. The Farm Bill is evidence enough but the Education bill is especially telling.
I don't consider Dole a conservative. My (rather simple) point went completely over your head. The Federal Judiciary is currently dominated by Clinton appointees. Bush's court nominees are mostly conservative. The Senate Judiciary committee has been keeping his nominees from even coming to the Senate floor for a vote. The committee votes have virtually all been straight party line. So even if you consider every GOP Senator a RINO, which I don't, they've been voting to push his nominees through. The problem is they're in the minority. Electing Dole would help to restore the Senate to Republican control.
If the GOP doesn't retake the Senate, his entire term will go by with either very few judicial nominees being approved or Bush will have to start nominating more liberal judges to get them through. I don't understand why this is so incredibly difficult for people like you to understand.
We don't want "your kind" here on Free Republic.
Libertarians are EXTREMELY Liberal when it comes to things like drugs, alcohol, sex outside of wedlock, homosexuality, prostitution, gambling, abortion, Family values, ect...
They like democrats getting elected because democrats getting elected furthers their social agenda.
Look I'm so conservative, I think Jesse Helms is a little bit liberal. Seriously, vote in Giddy Dolt and win back the Senate. With the RINOs in office, I'm not so sure some of Bush's more conservative judges would have a chance on the floor. I cannot seriously believe that NC is going to have two Senators at the same time that are so liberal. Giddy is pro-choice, anti-gun, and for government subsidies of tobacco. You call that good? Why not push for government to get off the tobacco growers backs as Bush promised in his campaign that he would. Never heard another word about it
House looks real possible but a 10 seat net gain in Senate seem improbable. Are there that many up for election and does the NCGOP have qualified candidates in place to take advantage of the redistricting?
There is no dichotomy between Libertarians--correctly understood--and traditional American Conservatives. They may differ on some issues--indeed every shade of opinion, has differences within its own shade--but on the vital interests, we are on the same side. This is particularly true at the Federal level, where almost all Libertarians believe in the strictly limited Government of the Constitution, which is the bedrock of mainstream American Conservatism. There is no more vital Conservative principle than that which requires that the sacred oath of public office be adhered to. And the doubts as to Mrs. Dole's suitability for the U.S. Senate, include very serious doubts as to her commitment to the Constitution. (She is no Jesse Helms with a skirt!)
It is, of course, not my business who represents the great State of North Carolina in the U.S. Senate. Naturally, I am a very curious bystander. Naturally, I would hope that the State picks someone who will be a great force for principles that I hold sacred. In this regard, it would be better, if possible, that a younger candidate than Mrs. Dole be found, unless she were clearly the most coherent Conservative voice in the race, which I know that she is not.
But, again, the Senator must serve North Carolina, not Ohio. So I, as a good American, must affirm her right to make that choice for herself.
William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site
Windom Earle made an excellent point in post #108 with this: "Elizabeth Dole has been endorsed by Jesse Helms. Sen. Helms has not previously endorsed candidates in any primary. Will one of you nay-sayers please explain how Sen Helms, a man of principle and conviction, could endorse Mrs. Dole if he didn't really believe in her candidacy? Be careful, no one has ever accused Jesse Helms of political expediency before....."
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