[ken5050]

John dont' forget that these type polls seem to have a built in bias towards the Dems of about 5%...plus the fact that Dem voters are more heavily concentrated in a smaller number of districts....I stand by my prediction of 10+ seat pick up in the House, and 3-4 in the Senate..

[JohnHuang2]

Re: #9 -- you are absolutely correct, sir. As for your prediction, I like it =^)

[mystery-ak]

I pray you are right!
Please explain the 5% bias you speak of?

[Wphile]

My prediction: the GOP defends all of its seats in the Senate (including Texas) and wins in Minnesota (defeating Wellstone), South Dakota (defeating Johnson), New Jersey (defeating Torricelli) and Missouri (defeating Carnahan). As for the House, the GOP maintains control but I don't know about gaining or losing seats.

[lasereye]

John dont' forget that these type polls seem to have a built in bias towards the Dems of about 5%...plus the fact that Dem voters are more heavily concentrated in a smaller number of districts....I stand by my prediction of 10+ seat pick up in the House, and 3-4 in the Senate..

You're overoptimistic. I don't know that the pro-Democrat poll bias is true all that much anymore. I get the impression this could be a real low turnout election. The Dems are doing their usual scare job on the seniors, who are most likely to vote. By the fall they'll have found a way to play the race card in the urbanized states as usual and get minorities out to the polls, allowing people like Torricelli to survive. Then there's the stock market. If people who suddenly can't retire when they thought they would blame the GOP for that, it's curtains.

On the other hand, I think alot of conservatives may sit this out. The Republicans have failed to make a case that the Dems are obstructing President Bush in any major way. And Bush hasn't come out with anything lately for them to obstruct anyway. They aren't even talking about the judicial nominees much. What's there for conservative voters to get mad enough about to motivate them to vote?

The Dems strategy of scaring seniors, pro-choice women, minorities and enviromentalists is a blunt instrument they use over and over again. It's like a football team with a huge offensive line and a bruising fullback running it up the middle all the time. Nothing pretty about it but it's effective if you have a team that can't figure out how to stop it or even if they can stop it alot, if they have no way whatsover of scoring points themselves.

[rwfromkansas]

The Fox News poll always leans pubbie. So, I skew this one a bit Democrat....basically it looks like we still have a shot in November though. We have got to work our butts off though at getting conservatives to the polls.