Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[wardaddy]

you are correct wardaddy,

LOL...ok that does it....call Schwartz down at the Weather Channel and tell him I'm packing my bags....230 miles from Nashville....I can be there in 4 hours. They better keep a prime time slot open for me!!!

[dirtboy]

wunderground has the 4PM advisory - winds up to 140 mph, pressure down to 938 MB.

[dirtboy]

Reminds me of a hurricane that hit south Texas several years ago; affected a mostly sparsely populated area between Corpus and Brownsville, I believe.

That describes Brett and Allan.

[dennis1x]

im sure you arent cute enough to unseat all those weather babes in Atlanta.

[ET(end tyranny)]

Another thing that would help consolidate information is if people would stop starting 'new threads' with every update. Eventually people will congregate to the one thread still moving. jmo

[Aggie Mama]

Hmmm. I'll have to call hubby and ask him.

[wardaddy]

If this low pressure holds, this storm will make the top 15 of the 20th century standards. I realize that winds and surge do not always correlate with the pressure. I think speed of the hurricane itself also contributes does it not?

Need it be said. Anyone in this storms projected path within the storm surge in particular should leave.

[mhking]

4P NHC Advisory (from Weather Underground):

---

Hurricane Lili Advisory Number 46
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 02, 2002

...Extremely dangerous category 4 Lili continues northwestward toward the northwestern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from east of High Island Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Preparations to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Freeport to High Island Texas...and from east of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 90.0 west or about 285 miles south of New Orleans Louisiana. This position is also about 275 south-southeast of Marsh Island on the south central Louisiana coast.

Lili is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr...and a gradual turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours. This motion would bring the center near the coast of south central or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and a NOAA research hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. This makes Lili an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson hurricane scale. While some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours...Lili is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland up to 150 miles near the track of the center of Lili. NOAA buoy 42001 recently reported an eight-minute sustained wind of 105 mph with a gust to 148 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft is 938 mb...27.70 inches.

A life-threatening storm surge of 10 to 20 feet above normal tide levels is likely near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. The surge could spread as much as 25 miles inland across the low-lying portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the track.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are possible along the track of Lili. These rains could cause dangerous flooding.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana tonight.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...25.9 N... 90.0 W. Movement toward...northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Beven

[mhking]

This ain't good - it also means that 150 ain't out of the question.

[sweet_diane]

I read on the AOL message board that, according to the hurricane plane, Lili is up to Cat 5???? Please tell me that isn't so......

[dennis1x]

pressure and flight level winds do not indicate a cat 5 storm

[Paradox]

As a survivor of Andrew, and this storm is like Andrew, please if you are in coastal areas get out now while you still can. There is nothing worth being in this storm to save. Just go! If she has steady winds of 135 now sheis gusting to 150/175. Go due east or due west, not NE.

Ah crap. My heart really starts beating when I read about a 4+ Hurricane. At those SUSTAINED wind speeds, STRANGE things happen. For example, one of the most pathetic things I saw in the aftermath of Andrew was birds, totally stripped of their feathers, flopping on the ground, slowly dying. Animals that tried to wear out the storm, with their hair and skin eroded off of their bodies, still alive, for a while anyways. Nature can be so cold, so cruel.

I certainly hope NO ONE thinks they can ride this monster out with a "party". That is INSANE. I tried all the tricks, tied everything down, battened up as well as possible. It helped, to a limited extent, probably helped save the life of my family and myself. But I was no where NEAR prepared for what happened. I couldn't conceive of the wide spread damage, for as far as the eye could see. It looked like an alien landscape or some twisted Salvador Dali universe.. If I had known then what I know now, I would have evacuated, in a heartbeat.

To all those in the general area, please folks, take the warnings seriously. I would evacuate, in a heartbeat.

[Howlin]

Please, friends, KEEP IN TOUCH; if you just CALL somebody to have them come here and tell us you're okay.

We are going to be checking roll!

God bless you and your family and friends.

[mhking]

I read on the AOL message board that, according to the hurricane plane, Lili is up to Cat 5???? Please tell me that isn't so......

Based on the 5P update, sustained winds are at 140 - not quite Cat5 yet, but it's not out of the question.

[Charles Martel]

The Weather Channel is showing the upper clouds that are already ashore are starting to make a pretty sharp turn to the NE. "The storm 'should' follow those clouds."

Hmm, that is NOT what I want to hear. Not unexpected, though. Good thing the gas tank is topped-off.

[Melas]

Same here. No water, bread, batteries, schools closed until Monday etc.

[wardaddy]

Quite a few of the weather chicks are hotties....in fact there is a trend in all televised news/weather/sports media to up the estrogen level a bit.


Notice the epidemic of pregancies with the weather chicks?

Weather chicks=Receptive Ovums.....we need a study on that don't you think?

[dennis1x]

Here is the latest discussion...

Hurricane Lili Discussion Number 46


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 02, 2002



Lili went through another burst of intensification this afternoon...
with the central pressure falling from 954 mb to 941 mb in about
5 hr. The hurricane has continued to deepen at a slower rate since
16z...with the central pressure falling to 938 mb at 20z. The
maximum flight level winds found by the various aircraft sampling
Lili so far are 136 kt...so the initial intensity is set to 120 kt.
Lili is showing signs of peaking...as the aircraft and satellite
imagery indicate the beginning of an outer eyewall that will likely
bring a halt to the current intensification.
The initial motion is 315/14...a little to the right of the previous
motion. There is no change in the steering pattern or the reasoning
of the forecast track. Lili should move northwestward and then
northward over the next 24 hr around the ridge to the northeast...
which should bring the center to the southwest or south central
coasts of Louisiana by this time tomorrow. After landfall...Lili
should recurve into the westerlies and turn northeastward with
gradual acceleration. Track model guidance is very tightly
clustered toward a landfall between Vermillion Bay and Sabine
Pass...and the official forecast is just to the right of the center
of the guidance.
In addition to the concentric eyewalls...the actual intensity is
catching up with the satellite signature and the outflow is being
restricted to the west and southwest by an upper-level trough.
These things suggest that Lili should peak in the next 6-12 hr then
undergo fluctuations in strength until landfall. Regardless of the
exact intensity...Lili should make landfall as a major hurricane.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/2100z 25.9n 90.0w 120 kts
12hr VT 03/0600z 27.5n 91.4w 125 kts
24hr VT 03/1800z 29.8n 92.3w 125 kts...inland
36hr VT 04/0600z 32.2n 91.9w 65 kts...inland
48hr VT 04/1800z 36.1n 89.0w 35 kts...inland extratropical
72hr VT 05/1800z 45.0n 74.0w 30 kts...inland extratropical

[Lokibob]

Bumper sticker for a weatherman: WEATHERMEN HAVE WARM FRONTS.

[mhking]

If Jim Williams at HurricaneCity.com is not up live yet, he will be by 8P ET. His live feed will be available 24/7 through this evening and all day tomorrow with live feeds from local television in the region, plus live phone calls and radio feeds from within the affected area.