Tuesday, 10/29, Market WrapUp (Consumer Confidence Plunges)

Financial Sense Online ^ | 10/29/2002 | Scott Middleton

[rohry]

"The buy signal is pretty strong right now. The markets have hit their bottom and there will be a decent bull market over the next year or so."

Man, what a dream world you live in...

[arete]

Interesting that Bernie Schaeffer has turned more bullish on this rally. I like Bernie -- he's a straight shooter so you have to take him seriously.

Bernie Schaeffer: A Bullish Trade in the Making

Richard W.

[Always Right]

Man, what a dream world you live in...

And what a sorry-ass doomsday hell-hole you live in...

[rohry]

"And what a sorry-ass doomsday hell-hole you live in..."

Okay Mr big expert, we'll see who comes out on top of this race. You have been wrong several times before and you will be wrong again...

[Always Right]

Oh please, spare me the 'you've been wrong before' bs. You have been predicting sub-5000 Dow for some time now.

[rohry]

"Oh please, spare me the 'you've been wrong before' bs. You have been predicting sub-5000 Dow for some time now."

Where did I ever say that? Show me a quote please...

[Tauzero]

Bernie might be right. Perversely, if he is, even more damage will be done to most people's portfolios, in the long run.

...can't have all that money sitting in money market funds -- gotta suck it back in, the bear is hungry.

[Always Right]

Where did I ever say that? Show me a quote please...

OK, just a few days ago on 10/25 you stated the following:

Historically, bear markets end when P/E gets well ensconed below the average (13). Wake me up when we get there...

If P/E go below 13 with present earnings, the DOW would be way below 5000....Now I know you don't think earnings will rise substantially anytime soon, so what are you predicting if it's not a sub-5000 Dow???????????

[rohry]

"If P/E go below 13 with present earnings, the DOW would be way below 5000....Now I know you don't think earnings will rise substantially anytime soon, so what are you predicting if it's not a sub-5000 Dow???????????"

Awfull lot of assumptions here. Did I say that anything about the Dow? NO!

Good try, though...

[rohry]

Oh please, spare me the 'you've been wrong before' bs. You have been predicting sub-5000 Dow for some time now.

Where did I ever say that? Show me a quote please... "OK, just a few days ago on 10/25 you stated the following..." This is your evidence that I have been predicting a "sub-5000 Dow for some time now?" Wow, you need to brush up on your analytical skills. October 25 does not constitute "a long period of time", I was not refering to the Dow, and I NEVER stated any speculation on future earnings...

Try again?

[AdamSelene235]

Awwww. You guys are just tooo technical. Any gut feels out there ?

Halfway through Gulf War II.

[AdamSelene235]

And what a sorry-ass doomsday hell-hole you live in...

Oh, leave rohry alone. He's one of the nicer guys on free republic. I've never seen him speak unkindly of another freeper without provacation.

Furthermore, just because one is bearish doesn't mean you're a doomster. If the GSEs melt down and take the real estate market with them, I will be grinning from ear to ear (and taking a rather long vacation).

There are plenty of reasons to be bearish right now and a couple of glimmers of hope for the future as well.

[raygun]

Actually, if one follows the principles of trend analysis there's money to be made in the stock market, no matter what the market index's are doing. Today 52 out of 209 market sectors increased in value. Obviously this is a huge money making opportunity for short sellers (at least they'd have an easier time at it), and to a lesser degree (but not impossible) those going long.

Even the worst performing sector (anathema for those going long) - Telecommunications (Processing Systems & Products) - which declined 6.82% in value today, contains a gem. Global Systems, Inc. (GCOM)has been trending up since the 11 Oct (the day price crossed the 20 day exponential MA). It opened at $2.85 on that day, and closed at $4.50 today. Foreshadowing of the trend was on 27 Sep when the 17 period, 3 period %K, 3 period %D stochastic crossed above 20. Confirmation of this signal was made by the extreme narrowing of 20 period, 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands. On the 11 Oct the stock broke out on the upside, with a present unrealized gain of 58% in 18 days. This is an effective annual yield of 3824%. Not a bad return in the worst performing sector in a general bear market.

By the way, the 26 week price performance for that sector is 205 out of 209. That means that it is performing better than 1.9% of all market sectors. Without doubt there are a whole lot more gems such as that if one looks in those sectors in the top 25% of price performance for the last 26 weeks. With the aid of a good stock charting program (such as TC2000), you too could make money in the stock market no matter what it does.

[imawit]

Ok. Do I talk to you to get this TC 2000 or who/where do I call and how much does it cost ? Oh, and what is it, I haven't heard of it before.

[imawit]

If the GSEs melt down and take the real estate market with them, I will be grinning from ear to ear (and taking a rather long vacation).

I take it you're trying to tell me your short the GSE's.

[AdamSelene235]

I take it you're trying to tell me your short the GSE's.

Its getting a bit late in the game for that....Maybe if FNM hits 75 again.

You might check the mortgage insurers....Perhaps they're still up and ripe for shorting...Been meaning to look into that but have been too busy making the world safe for technocracy and such.

[imawit]

My honest opinion is Bernie is trying to put too much tech into opinion and emotion.

Hey, how'd you like that scap...a haymaker to the midsection and roundhouse to the temple..clinch & hold...rabbit punch to the left ear...oooooh a jab to the schnozher....now some rope a dope.

THANKS ROHRY & ALWAYS RIGHT. May the best man win. Just what this site needed, some action !

[lainde]

bttt

[Always Right]

Try again?

Actually my first try did it already, but let's look at several others....

10/15--Tauzero accurately called this market rebound a week ago. I'm hoping it continues up through the election before it continues its decline to 6000 (or less)...

10/14--And, what stocks do you recommend in the midddle of the biggest Bear market since 1930?...

9/30--It's just that I believe that the market is ready for a decline...

9/29--The Dow should have reached 6500 last year. After that happened we could have built a new base. Now, I think that the Dow has to go MUCH lower to reach a bottom.

9/24--The "current reality" is that the stock market is going down... BIG TIME.

8/29--This market is vastly overvalued and will continue to come down even if some naive souls decide that it is somehow "patriotic" to ride it to the bottom.

7/22--Stocks are going down, big time...

7/21--I'm not shorting anything, but I'll notify you when we hit 7,000, 6,000, and 5,000...

7/11--If I said how low they really have to go I'd be flamed endlessly, so I'll stick with a number that is probably way too high but indicates to everyone that we are nowhere near a bottom.

7/11--I figure that we've got another 35% more to go (down) before we get close to fair market value. After that the real recovery can begin...

Besides your almost daily doom and gloom quotes, on 7/21 you specifically indicated below 5000 and on 7/11 you said 35% more decline (which you thought was way to high still). On July 11, the market closed at 8,812.10, let's see, a 35% decline would put us below 5728. Of course that was only your very conservative guess, which then you state if you said how low you really thought it would go you would really get flamed.

So are you denying you are not a doom and gloomer? Are you denying you don't think the DOW is headed below 5,000? Are you denying you don't think the DOW has to reach a PE of 13 to recover? Are you denying you haven't been posting this stuff for months and months? If I am wrong, what are you predicting then, or are you too afraid to tell us your doom and gloom forcast. I think calling you a sub-5000 Dow doom and gloomer is a downright fair characterization of your posts.

[AdamSelene235]

So are you denying you are not a doom and gloomer? Are you denying you don't think the DOW is headed below 5,000?

Now why would a DOW meltdown be bad thing? *If* the Dow hits 5 grand, the birds will still sing, the sunrise will still be breathtaking, heck some property might even be returned to its Rightful Owners.