Posted on 10/29/2002 4:35:59 PM PST by rohry
TC2000 is nothing more than a tool for the stock trader/investor. As far as I'm concerned, I believe it is the best tool available for the price one pays. The program is free. The data service costs $29.75 per month. Buy 10 months and get 2 months free, or buy 18 months and get 6 free.
With the application you can view price charts and fundemental rankings for any company, sort for high-volume breakouts and hot industry groups instantly, make personal WatchLists to track your portfolio and prospective purchases, study the archive of over 500 Worden Notes with indicator lessons, totally customizable stock charting (12 tabs per stock, each tab having three windows, each window allows the addition of indicators such as: envelope channel, moving average, linear regression and Bollinger Band, on balance volume, volume bars, stochastics, price rate of change, MACD, Wilder's RSI, relative strength - against hundreds of indexes - time segmented volume, money stream and balance of power). Those indicators are in addition to standard price chart graphing of: line, candlestick or open/close bar. Per bar display range can be instantly switched from daily, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 days, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and charts can be zoomed in and out (regardless of per bar range) as well as scrolling of price chart forwards and backward in time at will. Up to 15 years of data is available on the CD alone. The unlimited downloading data service merely adds to this data. Indicators can be built on top of each other i.e. moving averages of moving averages, moving averages of volume, RSI, relative strength and can be combined in countless ways to define indicators to mean something to you, show you what you want to know and not some canned crap. Also, fundemental (profit, loss, revenue, earnings, sales, etc.) data on each and every stock is instantly available. The range, scale, color and size of all windows, indicators and screens are customizable entirely to the users preferences.
The application allows the user to create formulas whereby the software can search for stocks that meet the users criterion. There are well over a hundred canned ways to sort watchlists eg. volume, price, earnings per share percent change (by quarter), profit, sales, etc. There are no red, yellow or green arrows indicating buy or sell points. Those decisions are made entirely based on your assessment of what your indicators tell you. There is no software anywhere that can do what TC2000 is capable of, and from my knowledge even software that costs over $200 (plus data subscription extra) is wanting in comparision.
At the end of each day, there is a Daily Worden Report that is downloaded and added to the existing archive. The report is a handpicked correspondance sent in from the TC2000 community at large and is a topic of interest where the answer can helpfull to traders/investors using TC2000. Some very sharp and savvy people write about their knowledge, system and formulas and how they are applied and judgeing from what I've read, must make a lot of money. Additionally, comments about the days market character is also added. Furthermore, the Daily Worden Notes WatchList contains hundreds of stocks, handpicked daily by the Worden's with comments specific to individual stocks are attached to those stock's drawing attention to various indicators and the stocks activity on that day. TC2000 also allow the user to attach their own notes to individual stocks. This information is kept in perpetuity, or until deleted by the user. All this information is available off-line. The only time one needs to be online is to download the latest data, something that is delayed 20 minutes intraday and can be done as often or infrequently as one desires. Each an everytime a download is initiated, all available data is downloaded.
As I've indicated TC2000 is only a tool. The user should have basic understanding of the stock market in general, and be somewhat knowledgeable about technical analysis. When conventional fundemental analysis is applied as adjunct (as promoted by Investors Business Daily) the combination is truly formidable. TC2000 can benefit both the casual investor and the serious day-trader. In fact there is a new product offered called TCNet that includes real-time quotes. Imagine a standard line or candlestick chart with per tick updating of price and volume and all other customized indicators.
This is a trading network of TC2000 users who share ideas, tips, and strategies while charts, news and real-time data streams by. People comment that they've spent $30000 dollars on seminars and get more information just from Worden Notes and the TCNet chat. TCNet also has alert notification, whereby the user can configure when, how and for what reasons to be alerted by e-mail and/or pager based on price, news, notes or even up/downgrades. Moreover, streaming and historical news from over 40 sources seamlessly integrated into WatchLists and notes (includes Briefing.com). As you can imagine this service costs a somewhat more than standard TC2000 ($799 annually).
Anybody lamenting about the stock market, and how they're losing money in their 401k is just that. Losers. The price to become successfull is not cheap. Obviously it requires a cash outlay to subscribe for the data service (TC2000 is useless without it, except for tutoring, as it is fully functional with its archived stock history of 8000 stocks going back 15 years). But the data is several months old, so is useless without frequent regular updates. However, the price is more ethereal than that. It requires dedication of the prospective trader/investor to learn first, and to think for themselves foremost. Once the trader/investor can get away from clinging to what other people think and think for themselves, they can become highly successfull. But its just not learning and thinking for themselves, they've actually got to do it, and do it every day. That and practice. And one gets out of it what one puts into it.
TC2000 also offers beginners classes for free in cities nationwide, as well as advanced classes for $200 per day for advanced trader/investors. It also comes with a complementary video CD How to Uncover Resilient Stocks in the Market Furthermore, there are an assortment of CD's (each contain 1 hour videos in 5-10 minute increments) whereby various topics are discussed about how to utilize TC2000 for maximum effectiveness, and how to interpret proprietary TC2000 indicators. That basically scratches the surface. The rest is up to you.
Quite an odd post. First if the Dow hits 5,000, the wealth is lost, not given to someone else. Second, do you believe in redistribution of wealth? Not a very capitalistic outlook.
How many times have you posted that chart showing the 1929 stock market crash? How many times have you compared today with what happened during the Great Depression? I guess those comparisons show your optimism. You believe earnings are overstated, you blieve we must get down to a 13 PE ratio, but yet you are too afraid to say what that percisely means....well it means a sub-5000 DOW, there is no other way (unless you believe the economy is healthy and earning will grow, lol). You believe the market has to drop atleast another 35% or 'way down' as you usually say.
I have said for months and months the market will trade between 7500-10000 till well into next year. The breif period it did go below that range it immediately shot back up 1,000 points (one of the fastest 1,000 gains in the history of the market), or the exception that proved the rule. I state specific optimism, you state vague gloom and doom. You are not willing to predict anything specific, as far as time frames and ranges you believe.
I have been betting, since January 2000, that the market is going down...I have made money on that bet and that is all that matters to me. I'm not getting into some silly ego-driven prediction battle with you...
I have been trying to make sense of this most recent rally. It continues to rise on bad economic news. I've come to that conclusion also. Using leverage from mutual fund end of year pumping and pre-election pumping be the FED, I think the big traders are setting up the flock for another fleecing.
Richard W.
We'll see about that.
Second, do you believe in redistribution of wealth? Not a very capitalistic outlook.
Its perfectly capitalistic. The Feds have herded the sheeple into equities with artificial incentives such as the tax breaks provided by 401k's, by printing money like there is no tommorrow, and "socializing" the risk of monsters like Fannie and JPM. What a perfect receipe for malinvestment. These people deserve to lose their shirts. Naturally, they will cry for more "protection" from the big bad world and the Feds will be happy to "help".
I am glad you made some money, but if you don't want to get into a arguement, then don't start one. You are the one who called my forcast living in a 'dream world' and stated how I've 'been wrong several times before' without actually showing any. I'll stick by my specific predictions which so far have been far more accurate then any of yours. When the DOW drops 35% or even below the now upwardly revised 6500, call me.
What exactly is artificial about 401K incentives? 401K plans give individuals the ability to invest tax free income into the various stock markets, bonds, or even money markets. I have accumulated a nice nest egg, nothing 'artificial' about it.
I thought the historical rule of thumb was a P/E of 15/1.
BUMP
It provides an incentive to place money in stocks and bonds when there might be no good reason to do so other than the tax break. Furthermore most 401k holders haven't the foggiest idea how to evaluate the quality of equities. They just delegate that responsibility to the "pros". Of course the "pros" who manage 401ks have little incentive to be competitive because their jobs are partially secured by government policy not by their performance. Sounds like a receipe for a bubble to me.
Equities and bond markets exist to raise capital. Its entirely conceivable that they can reach saturation...but that doesn't matter to a 401k program. It will just keep pumping in dollars regardless how poorly they are allocated.
Artificial incentives reduce the efficiency of markets.
401K's provide real incentives to save money for retirement. There is no additional incentive to how the money is invested. There is nothing 'artificial' here, except maybe your perception of reality.
I see, so I am free to spend my 401K money, tax free as I see fit?
Same thing. You either buy dollars or equities or education or tools for you business, etc.
If it wasn't an artifial incentive, it wouldn't be retirement program would it.
More well intentioned paternalism. As are the GSEs and the farm subsidies and medicare, and public skools,etc,etc.
As always, thanks Rohry and good luck to everybody!!
Stonewalls
Interesting that Bernie Schaeffer has turned more bullish on this rally. I like Bernie -- he's a straight shooter so you have to take him seriously.I've been mulling over Michael Hartman's 10/25 chart and commentary, especially the following: "Even if the market can regroup to push through the [S&P] 900 barrier, I don't see it breaking through the neckline [S&P 930] or the long-term bear market channel [S&P 975]."
Bernie Schaeffer's commentary makes for an interesting contrast with Michael Hartman's: "A logical termination point would be the 1100 area on the S&P 500 Index ... Another less likely possibility would be 1160 ..."
Thanks for the link.
If interested in seeing if we have the same impression, contact me by private mail. I won't put the name of the company on the thread...I'm afraid someone might think I know what I'm doing and go out and buy it.
Thanks, Grania
"First, the S&P is sitting around 860 right now. Corporate earnings for them were about $30 a year ago, but analysits are expecting earning of $47 (a more pessimistic estimate is probably around $40-42). So at current value, the S&P is only trading at a P&E of around 18 if earnings come in as expected."
Here is a quote from the S&P 500 Web site:
Standard & Poor's Core Earnings Figures Released for the
S&P 500
New Earnings Definition Indicates Lower EPS Results than As-Reported Earnings with Pension Expenses a Major Factor
New York, October 24, 2002
–Standard & Poor's, the independent financial research and ratings leader, today announced that Standard & Poor’s Core Earnings for the S&P 500 Index for the 12 months ended June 2002 were $18.48 per share compared to as-reported earnings per share (EPS) of $26.74.
So, your earnings numbers are wrong (according to the S&P 500) by a significant margin. Price divided by these earnings are well over 40 (not 19 as you stated on another thread). WRONG...
You predicted a "bottom" in July, then another (lower) one in October. I think we are in a bear market rally. Maybe I'm wrong and I will admit it to you next July, if the Dow is at 11,000 (as you predicted last July). Predicting false bottoms is the definition of wrong...
As for the earnings I used as being 'WRONG', it seems you are comparing apples to oranges. The numbers you refer to are some 'new earnings definition' for the June numbers which seem to include a new caculation for Pension expenses. The numbers I refer to are the expected reported earnings at the end of the year, which probably do not use the 'new earnings definition'.
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