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RCP Predictions: Republicans will take the Senate +2
RCP ^

Posted on 11/03/2002 7:40:36 PM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom

Current RCP Predictions on Key 2002 Senate Races
Pryor (D) 53% - Hutchinson (R) 47%.
DEM +1
Allard (R) 49% - Strickland (R) 48%
GOP Hold
Chambliss (R) 49% - Cleland (D) 49%
GOP +1
Harkin (D) 54% - Ganske (R) 46%
DEM Hold
Landrieu (D) 46%
Runoff
Coleman (R) 51% - Mondale (D) 47%
GOP +1
Talent (R) 51% - Carnahan (D) 48%
GOP +1
Shaheen (D) 49% - Sununu (R) 48%
DEM +1
Lautenberg (D) 51% - Forrester (R) 47%
DEM Hold
Dole (R) 51% - Bowles(D) 47%
GOP Hold
Graham (R) 56% - Sanders 43%
GOP Hold
Thune (R) 50% - Johnson (D) 50%
GOP +1
Cornyn (R) 50% - Kirk (D) 48%
GOP Hold
Total Net Gain (Not Counting Louisiana Runoff)
GOP +2


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: senatepredictions
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I like RCP
1 posted on 11/03/2002 7:40:37 PM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
WIN ONE FOR THE GIPPER

Vote on Tuesday.

Do the right thing.


2 posted on 11/03/2002 7:42:21 PM PST by ChadGore
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
Based on the Zogby and Colorado poll numbers, I would change it in one way.....say goodbye to Allard. He won't win. I also think Sununu MAY be able to hold on. Anyway, I am more toward GOP +1.....+2 just does not seem likely.
3 posted on 11/03/2002 7:43:25 PM PST by rwfromkansas
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
Now that there is TROUBLE with Pryor having ILLEGALS working for him and paying CASH, that might turn that race around!
4 posted on 11/03/2002 7:43:40 PM PST by Jewels1091
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
Can somebody explain to Sen. Smith that this election is bigger than him? Sheesh, how pathetic.
5 posted on 11/03/2002 7:44:13 PM PST by Nephi
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
I hope!
6 posted on 11/03/2002 7:44:58 PM PST by ozzymandus
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
I just do not understand the call for Colorado going to Allard who is mired in the low 40s versus the call for Shaheen in NH when she is the incumbent (so to speak, a sitting governor) not breaking 50% and in a Republican state. It makes no sense to me.
7 posted on 11/03/2002 7:45:06 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Tennessean4Bush
The call is that there are a lot of undecided voters, most are republicans that have moved there from California in the mid to late nineties. When they get in the booth, the will pull the lever marked R
8 posted on 11/03/2002 7:47:43 PM PST by The Vast Right Wing
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To: rwfromkansas
I disagree. As a Coloradoan, I think Allard is going to squeak it out with a little help from Gov. Owens. Also, Fred Barnes on the Beltway Boys made an encouraging remark, "...this is the second time for Strickland, voters don't usually vote for the loser the second time around." My own personal sense is that the numbers that you are hearing are skewed in Strickland's favor - like last time.
9 posted on 11/03/2002 7:47:59 PM PST by Nephi
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To: PhiKapMom; Dog Gone; KQQL; Torie; Lady In Blue; Miss Marple; BlackRazor
FYI......

Also check the following and share:

POLL WATCHERS

10 posted on 11/03/2002 7:48:22 PM PST by deport
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Geez, even Mara Liasson said Shaheen had an uphill battle because of the voter rolls in NH.
11 posted on 11/03/2002 7:49:14 PM PST by copycat
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To: Tennessean4Bush
The number of undecides are votes who did not vote in the 96 race or was not in the state. There has been over 20% more votes and the most of those are reps. That guessing when they look at the ballot they will look for the R and vote.
12 posted on 11/03/2002 7:49:24 PM PST by Paul8148
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
I Like RCP too, but I don't see Thune winning in South Dakota...

Pookie & Me

13 posted on 11/03/2002 7:51:09 PM PST by Pookie Me
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
Let's hope their right. I feel, personally, that we will do quite well come tuesday. I'll be glued to Fox News all afternoon/evening. Just read your profile and have to say, for a young squirt, ya got yer head screwed on right.(take the 'young squirt' part as a light ribbing in jest) It appears that many in the younger age group are using their heads very well. Actually thinking about things. Good luck in all you do in the future.

Nam Vet

14 posted on 11/03/2002 7:51:23 PM PST by Nam Vet
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Here in NH, I don't see us going for Shaheen no matter how many surplus Massachusetts voters she brings in.
15 posted on 11/03/2002 7:52:37 PM PST by calenel
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To: Nam Vet
I'll watch FOXNews just to watch Brit Hume's face when Coleman wins.
16 posted on 11/03/2002 7:55:11 PM PST by For the Unborn
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
It's going to be close, it appears, which means that we should expect every close race the Dems lose or get close to losing to be challenged in court.

The motions have probably already been drafted and the friendly judges determined in advance.

The notion that we will go to bed on Tuesday night with a sense of victory and satisfaction is probably a pipe dream, much like we had in November of 2000.

17 posted on 11/03/2002 7:57:41 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: calenel
God, I pray you are right. What is your sense. Are the Republicans motivated? I think with a real good get-out-the-vote push the Republicans can pull Sununu over the top by a whisker.

I wish I could be there to help. Lamar in Tennessee doesn't really need by help. He will win by 10-15% points.

18 posted on 11/03/2002 8:00:00 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: deport
For at least 3 weeks they have been saying these races are too close to call..

All the media types say it is too close to call.

Too close to call 3 weeks ago and too close to call now means no change right?

But David Broder, Tim Russert, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, CNBC etc are saying that Bush is having a very positive effect on the races for Republicans.

If they were to close before Dubya started campaigning and and they are still too close to call, is Bush only making them closer so they are even more too close to call?

HuHHHHHH????

Either the media knows things they are not telling us, or they are lying when they say Dubya is making a difference.

19 posted on 11/03/2002 8:01:33 PM PST by Common Tator
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To: Nephi
Can somebody explain to Sen. Smith that this election is bigger than him? Sheesh, how pathetic.

Nothing is bigger than Senator Smiths ego but Sununu's gonna win anyway. For Shaheen to win, she's gotta get near 60% of independents. Ain't gona happen, NH is still, as of this writing, a conservative state.

20 posted on 11/03/2002 8:03:32 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: The Vast Right Wing
Why the freak are they undecided?!! Give me a break! The stakes are so freaking high!
21 posted on 11/03/2002 8:03:54 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Why the freak are they undecided?!!

Either they think their vote does not count or they choose their candidates by which anti-depressant drug they take in the morning

22 posted on 11/03/2002 8:07:26 PM PST by JZoback
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To: Common Tator
I opt for the media is lying based on what I have seen and heard!
23 posted on 11/03/2002 8:09:29 PM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: rwfromkansas
I read the NH race just a bit differently than others. Sununu is more like the challenger. Shaheen is a sitting governor unable to get over 50%. She is like an incumbent. I really think this one is one that breaks for the Republicans. Of course, Shaheen has been making up ground in a big way recently and one has to wonder if she is really ahead by 3-5% and has cracked the 50% mark.

I hope and pray we can pull this one out. I am almost certain that we will lose Arkansas and Colorado. If we lose this one too, it is just too much to overcome, IMHO.

24 posted on 11/03/2002 8:09:46 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Common Tator
Glad to hear that all those other commentators say Bush is having a positive effect for Republican candidates. Tonight that Dick Morris was on FOX talking with Rita Cosby, and he rambled on and on about all the damage Bush has done to Republicans, how (in Morris' view, of course) he should have been staying in the White House looking Presidential instead of being out on the hustings etc.
25 posted on 11/03/2002 8:12:23 PM PST by Cookie123
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
CNN has Allard up....barely.

COLORADO

1. If the elections for Senator were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Tom Strickland, the Democrat (or) Wayne Allard, the Republican?

Strickland (Dem) Allard (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 45 47 8

Next,

2. If the elections for governor were being held today, which candidate would you vote for in your state -- Rollie Heath, the Democrat (or) Bill Owens, the Republican?

Heath (Dem) Owens (Rep) Undecided/ Other
Likely Voters (2002 Oct 30-Nov 2) 32 62 6

^ Based on 807 registered voters, maximum margin of error ±4 percentage points
26 posted on 11/03/2002 8:13:29 PM PST by finnman69
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To: Cookie123
I know - I saw him on Rita's show, too. He kept talking about how Bush's numbers are falling - and are lower than Clinton's were during the Lewinski mess.
27 posted on 11/03/2002 8:13:36 PM PST by MasonGal
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To: Cookie123
This president knows his domestic agenda and legacy are at stake. If Daschle controls the Senate for the next two years Bush will limp into the 2004 race and get virtually no judges appointed between now and then.
28 posted on 11/03/2002 8:16:13 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Common Tator
If they were to close before Dubya started campaigning and and they are still too close to call, is Bush only making them closer so they are even more too close to call?

Good point. For at least two weeks all of these TCTC races have been TCTC and we've been hearing that Bush is delivering a 2-6 point Bush Bump wherever he goes. I believe there is a Bush bump...the media wouldn't be giving him the credit for one if there wasn't something there.

Did you see Fox News this morning when they were discussing the NYT Generic Ballot poll? That poll always understates GOP strength by several % and today it had the GOP at 47% and the 'Rats at 40% and everyone seemed to fall all over themselves trying to discredit the poll and I've not heard it mentioned again. If these numbers are even close to being correct we're going to see a huge night for the GOP on Tuesday! I wonder what's up?

29 posted on 11/03/2002 8:17:57 PM PST by pgkdan
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To: MasonGal
and are lower than Clinton's were during the Lewinski mess.

What?!! Last I checked Bush was in the low to mid 60s.

30 posted on 11/03/2002 8:18:10 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Hey - I'm just the messenger! :))

That's what he said, though - I know someone else on another thread heard Morris say the same thing on Rita's show.

31 posted on 11/03/2002 8:19:09 PM PST by MasonGal
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To: pgkdan
No other poll is showing this, so it is probably an anomoly. It could, however, be out-front and we will know in about 48 hours what it was.
32 posted on 11/03/2002 8:19:51 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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To: JZoback
Either they think their vote does not count or they choose their candidates by which anti-depressant drug they take in the morning

Or they're just ornery Republicans and don't think it's anybody's dadburned business that they're gonna vote for Coleman, or Hutchinson or Sununu or Thune or Chambliss or...you get the idea.

33 posted on 11/03/2002 8:20:19 PM PST by pgkdan
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To: Cookie123
Dick Morris has changed recently. The Rats must have got sick and tired of him being pro-Republican and either threatened Arkancide or offered money to STFU.
34 posted on 11/03/2002 8:20:30 PM PST by Pushi
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To: finnman69
CNN has Allard up....barely.

I guess everyone is so upset about Allard over that 1 poll were he was down like 11. People don't understand polls and the margin of error.

Lets say the poll is 46% for Allard, + or - 4%. That does not mean that Allard is betwwen 42 and 50. It means that there is a 95% chance that he is between 42 and 50.

Trendline polls tell a lot. One abberation does not. Sure, when you look at one poll you think "Gee, well there is only a 5% chance that it is wrong." However, There are probably 100 polls taken every single day. The statistics say that 5 every day are so wrong that they are not even within the margin or error.

35 posted on 11/03/2002 8:20:40 PM PST by Rodney King
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
The current polls can not be acturate in the post 9-11 period, weighting ratios for r/d/i have changed. Give the Reps. a + 2.5% weighting shift and + 2% for energization. Tuesday will make the dems and the pollsters cry.
36 posted on 11/03/2002 8:22:28 PM PST by Rodm
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To: pgkdan
I have never been polled. I sure would like too, though.

Every answer would be the exact oppsite of what I really think.

Just to screw up their numbers.

37 posted on 11/03/2002 8:24:43 PM PST by JZoback
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To: Tennessean4Bush
No other poll is showing this, so it is probably an anomoly. It could, however, be out-front and we will know in about 48 hours what it was.

Actually, CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP have Repubs up +6 in their generic poll also. See more here and Here

38 posted on 11/03/2002 8:25:59 PM PST by rb22982
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Why the freak are they undecided?!!

Maybe it gives them a feeling of power when they keep hearing how the undecideds will decide the races.

39 posted on 11/03/2002 8:28:08 PM PST by Otta B Sleepin
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To: JZoback
rofl!
40 posted on 11/03/2002 8:28:13 PM PST by Txslady
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To: rwfromkansas
Allard will be a squeaker. But Colorado is the beneficiary of a big chunk of money from the RNC for a pilot program called the 96 hour team.

I'm quite involved in this effort and can tell you the level of involvement and commitment is quite astonishing. Our kickoff meeting was Friday night. We expected about 1000 volunteers in the Denver Metro area. We had twice that many.

Well over half the volunteers were in suits and had just come from work. They are taking vacation monday and tuesday to work the election. They have been walking precincts all weekend. My team includes VP's at Fortune 500 companies, attorneys and many other professionals who are walking precincts.

Oral Roberts U. Has bussed in 160 truly great young college students to work with us.

Some of us are walking precincts in 18 degree weather and my wife, who runs a team of about 40 precinct walkers has to make them come in an hour after dark. It's so dark by 5:15 pm that you can't read the addresses on half the houses; but people just keep working.

Others are working phones. We have 150 phone lines installed at HQ. Undecideds have already been targeted. On election day, we have poll watchers at every precinct with a cell phone. Every Rep and targeted unaffiliated voter who has not voted will get a call before the polls close.

This is going on all over the state. Colorado has never had a Republican effort anything like this. If it works, expect to see it all over the country in future years.

We have a grownup president, who knows how important party is. We have a governor who is an organizational genius and has put the fortunes of Sen Allard, Bobby Beauprez (7th congressional) and the state house and senate candidates ahead of his own.

That said, it will be a squeaker. But we won't lose because the RATS outhustled us this year.

41 posted on 11/03/2002 8:35:19 PM PST by ffrancone
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
My Predictions (Doing Good in Football Pool So I will Try this)

SD- Thune (R) Takes it, Be a Close on but it Eeks out
MN- Coleman (R) Wins it by 3+ points
MO- Talent (R) Wins by 5+ Points
CO- Allard (R) Wins by a Fingernail
NH- Shaheen (D) Wins by 1-2 Points (maybe a Fingernail, Don't think we will take this one)
AK- Pryor (D) Will eek it out even with the Illy help
NJ- Lautenberg (D) +5 Judicial Activism at work here
TX- Cornyn(R) Will win 5+ or more
GA- Cleland (D) Will eek it out on a real close margin
NC- Dole (R) Be Real Close, this race will be withen a point
LA- Landrau (D) Will win in a Run Off


That's My take on it...
42 posted on 11/03/2002 8:35:39 PM PST by SShultz460
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To: SShultz460
and...
IA-The Dim will win...7+ Points...
43 posted on 11/03/2002 8:38:01 PM PST by SShultz460
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To: deport
I am borrowing your link!

Thanks!
44 posted on 11/03/2002 8:42:31 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Nam Vet
So will we all. But don't hold your breath. I have a bad feeling that democrat lawsuits are going to drag this one out until December. The days of knowing who won an election the next day are gone, thank you Al Gore. I stayed up all night election 2000 to find out that no winner was being declared that night - bummer.

When Gore said a few days ago, "Does anyone remember where they were when the court stopped the count" what I really remember is waiting for his concession speech and finding out I was robbed of hearing it about 2 in the am. That louse.

45 posted on 11/03/2002 8:42:35 PM PST by I still care
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To: JZoback
I have never been polled. I sure would like too, though.

I've had a few attempts. I hung up on them.

Telephone polling is getting really hard, because the only people that answer the phones are the ones sitting at home with nothing to do. And, I'm sure you know how they vote.

46 posted on 11/03/2002 8:43:21 PM PST by justlurking
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To: StopDemocratsDotCom
Praying for these results...perhaps Bob Smith could wise up and help...what a shameless sore looser.
47 posted on 11/03/2002 8:43:36 PM PST by TatieBug
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To: ffrancone
If I did not have a college test on Tuesday, I would have loved to work such an effort if they had something like that going on here in Kansas.
48 posted on 11/03/2002 8:47:18 PM PST by rwfromkansas
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To: Common Tator
Tator, It is because in there hearts they are DemoRats and they are trying to look impartial. They know this is big. They know Bush has coat tails and is dragging people into vote for these folks cause they like him and Laura. They can't bring themselves to say that they GOP is going to take the senate and they know it, the "MO' is with us.

I say we pick up three seats net total. for a senate of 53 R 1 Ind and 46 Rats, This is with NH a toss up and LA still a run off, If the wind is in our sails on these 2 we pick up 2 more. Remember you heard it here 1st!

49 posted on 11/03/2002 8:48:45 PM PST by taildragger
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To: ffrancone; EternalVigilance
With that kind of effort (thank goodness that is going on), Allard may pull it off. In WV, the GOP is calling all the Republicans to get out the vote. Who knows, Jay Wolfe could squeak out due to that.....it would truly be the shocker of the election......but I am hopeful.
50 posted on 11/03/2002 8:50:43 PM PST by rwfromkansas
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