The Texas Democrat Massacre and Its Aftermath

[GraniteStateConservative]

Bill Owens was strong with hispanics, too.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Get rid of Ben Nelson-- then you and Texas will have nothing but Republicans statewide in office (like my state!). Also in that elite group: Alaska, Ohio, and Utah.

[Theodore R.]

I did not mean to imply that good "conservatives" spit upon liberals in a literal sense as Mr. Stevenson experienced in Dallas several years before his death.

[Theodore R.]

What about ID? How many Republican congressmen does OH have compared to the Democrats?

[Dark Wing]

A Texas political analysis for your consideration.

[Theodore R.]

Though he lost a Senate race in 1996, Ben Nelson is one of those popular Democrat politicians in his state, like Breaux in LA, like Lloyd M. Bentsen, Jr., used to be in TX, like the Pryors in AR, and like Robert Graham in FL, and Ernest F. Hollings in SC. You just can't beat those kinds of candidates no matter what, for they appeal to the "middle" AND the "common man."

[montag813]

Now that the GOP controls the full House and Senate there, can we expect new redistricting moves to eliminate the Democrat edge in the U.S. House?

[deport]

Kirk’s appeal ran much deeper than the average black democrat, because he was the former popular mayor of Dallas, a predominantly Republican (and white) electoral base.

Good over all analysis... but just to give you some stats on the City of Dallas and not Dallas County. You don't fly a state flag so I'm not sure where you are from but the City of Dallas isn't the predominantly Republican white electoral base that is protrayed in the media. The City of Dallas from the 2000 Census looks like the following:

1,188,580 - population
..417,401 - white - 35.1%
..309,547 - black - 26.04%
..422,587 - Hispanic - 35.5%
....39,045 - other - 3.2%

City of Dallas

[Holden Magroin]

I think Hispanic population growth will eventually end Republican dominance in Texas. Texas Republicans are looking at things through a rosy lens if they think otherwise. California is Exhibit A.

[MeekOneGOP]

bump to come back and finish reading, beginning at....

So how does all this fit in to Texas? First of all, I want to emphasise that....

[Clemenza]

Actually, what made California more liberal was the OUTFLOW of conservative whites, leading to domination by liberal whites in the northern part of the state and Latinos (lets be honest, Mexicans) in the southern part. Texas is still seeing an influx of conservative whites from other parts of the country and does not have large concentrations of white liberal like California has.

[No dems 2002]

I must apologise for taking so long to get back to everybody. Life is so busy, you know.

Thank you everyone for what seems to be a mostly positive response to my Texas analysis. Thanks for the pointers, too.

I see that, as usual, there are a few die-hard pessimists about the future of Texas (or Tejas, as they call it) in our midst. One guy made the point that California was “exhibit A” to which he needs to read my analysis to why that is not accurate. Another guy even made the facetious claim that within 8 or 10 years Texas will be “solidly democratic”. I’d like to present the question to these people who are all ready to concede Texas to the democrats: Show me the statistics to back this up.

At best, Texas will become more competitive for the democrats, but by no means “solidly democratic”. Let me give you an example. Texas’ neighbour to the east is New Mexico, which has the highest Hispanic population (by percentage) of any state in the United States. Just over 42% of the population is Hispanic, while under 45% is non-Hispanic white, according to the 2000 Census. To complicate matters for the GOP, about 10% of the population is American Indian, which is a heavily democratic populace (think Tim Johnson in South Dakota). And believe me, New Mexico’s Latinos vote.

Exit polling in recent years has shown that between 55 and 60% of the electorate is white (significantly lower than Texas), and the Hispanic electorate has ranged between 28-36% (significantly higher than Texas), and the Indians and blacks have ranged roughly 8 or 12%.

So, this means that the New Mexico GOP must not only be dead, but suffering from rigor mortis, right? With a Hispanic population virtually equal with the white population means that New Mexico must make Rhode Island look like a Republican bastion, right?

As a matter of fact, no. It’s all a matter of doing your math, folks. To start with, which may surprise you, New Mexico whites are not nearly as Republican as Texan whites, yet the GOP is still very competitive there. Republicans average about 55 or 60% of the state’s white vote, about 10 or 15 points below the GOP average in Texas. For instance, in 2000 the electorate was 59% white, 32% Hispanic, and 9% other. It’s estimated that GW Bush took only 58% of the white vote, but he still came within less than 400 votes to winning the state (48%-48% tie). In fact, from what I’ve heard, when a few sample recounts were taken, Bush kept closing the gap. But, to not be hypocritical in light of Florida, the Bush campaign refused to request a recount in New Mexico, which could have given him the state. New Mexico is still very winnable for Republicans. If Bush had received 70% of the New Mexico white vote, he would have won hands down.

In this past election, democrats won a big victory in the gubernatorial race, but the state GOP is still glowing from their sweep in the federal elections. A Republican US Senator was re-elected with 65% of the vote, and they comfortably maintained their 2-1 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation, in spite of both races appearing competitive. One of these districts is 43% Hispanic and the other is 47%. The GOP also managed to win a statewide office or two, in spite of democrat star Bill Richardson carrying his party to victory. And, from what I hear, the democrats made no gains in the state house of representatives (which is democratic-controlled with a good-sized GOP minority). Thus, the GOP still has a strong presence in the state, even though there’s a much larger and more daunting percentage of Hispanics than in California.

In summary, New Mexico’s whites are more liberal, for sure, than Texas whites, but the GOP, gets what it can and then creates a coalition with non-white voters and has done remarkably well in the state’s recent political history.

So, please, folks, show some common sense and faith, those of you who believe Texas is about to become another Massachussetts.

Once again, thanks to everyone for taking the time to read my work.

[Tribune7]

A lot of Hispanics are pro life.

[Redbob]

One minor correction, in the interest of accuracy:
Rick Perry was elected, not re-elected, governor.
This will be his first term as an elected governor.

[Redbob]

And one more point, with regard to Algore's claim of having "won the popular vote":
Dubya was such a hands-down favorite, lead-pipe cinch to win here in Texas that large numbers of white Republicans didn't even bother to vote in '00.

Bush could easily have had another half-million votes in Texas - if it had mattered!

[MeekOneGOP]

So, please, folks, show some common sense and faith, those of you who believe Texas is about to become another Massachussetts.

Another Massachussetts? Ouch ! That hurts!