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North Korean Crisis: New Developments, Part I (Dr. Alexandr Nemets Alert)
NewsMax.com ^ | February 14, 2003 | Dr. Alexandr Nemets

Posted on 02/15/2003 11:32:57 PM PST by HighRoadToChina

Reprinted from NewsMax.com

North Korean Crisis: New Developments, Part I

Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Friday, Feb. 14, 2003

Three articles published by the author at the end of December and in the first half of January covered developments in North Korea up to the end of 2002. (See "The New Korean Crisis," Parts I through III.) I intended to return to this theme in two or three months.

However, look how terrible the picture in this part of the world became during January and the first half of February! This situation reminds me of a Stephen King story, where every new page is more frightening than the previous one.

So, it became necessary to compile a new series of articles describing and analyzing the actions and plans of the "major scarecrow," Kim Jong-il, as well as those "nice guys" in the shadows who are inspiring, protecting and defending him, the leaders of China and Russia.

No person with the ability of independent thinking - and these prevail among NewsMax readers - has a doubt that Beijing is playing a sinister role here. However, a lot of people (including those with high rank, according to information from the author’s friends in Washington, D.C.) still have dangerous illusions regarding Moscow.

The primary goal of the author is to destroy these illusions. And the best way to do that is to throw light on the secret strings of Moscow’s policy in Korea.

1. The recent activity of Russian diplomacy on the Korean peninsula and its reflection in the media of Moscow and Beijing

On Dec. 27, 2002, the pro-Kremlin Nezavisimaya Gazeta, one of the leaders of the Moscow media, published the article "Nuclear Striptease of Pyongyang" (major theses, with comments in parentheses follow).

"Pyongyang prepared the worst available Christmas gift for Washington: North Korea resumes the work of its nuclear facilities. This, according to American specialists, is the major step leading to production of weapons-grade plutonium and nuclear weapon manufacturing in North Korea in the very near future.

The official position of Moscow is as "rubberish" as it was earlier. It is possible to understand, from recent statements made by the Russian Foreign Ministry, that both Pyongyang and Washington are equally guilty in the growing tensions on the Korean peninsula.

This ministry insists on "peaceful and constructive dialog" between North Korea and America. The solidifying of Moscow’s and Beijing’s positions on Korea have been discussed during the phone conversation between Putin and Chinese leader Hu Jintao. (end of theses)

In brief, "whatever dangerous step is taken by North Korea, both Pyongyang and Washington share responsibility. And any punishment of Pyongyang - by the U.N. or America alone - is absolutely unacceptable." This was the official position of Moscow at the end of 2002.

In the beginning of January, the Russian Foreign Ministry formed a special "task force for Korea" headed by Deputy Minister Alexandr Losyukov. Remarkably, the Beijing media demonstrated great respect and support for the work of this group.

Renmin Ribao wrote on Jan. 6 (very briefly):

"Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov stated, after a two-hour meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Kim Hang-kyung in Moscow, that he and Kim found much in common in their countries' approaches and assessments to the DPRK (North Korea) situation.

Losyukov added that "both Moscow and Seoul believe it would be better to discuss the problem in a calm and negotiating atmosphere in order to avoid a disaster. … The two sides also agreed that the situation around the DPRK should not be intensified and there was no need to submit the question to the U.N. Security Council."

Losyukov said that Russia and China are in a good position to help reach a compromise through their contacts with the DPRK. (end of the brief)

Indeed, China has good grounds for satisfaction: Moscow’s position on North Korea is identical to Beijing’s and, in addition, actively pushes South Korea onto the same track.

Several days later, during the visit of Japanese Prime-Minister Koizumi to Moscow on Jan. 10, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Kremlin did their best to impose the "see no evil in North Korea" onto the Japanese side, though not successfully.

And immediately after this visit, on Jan. 12, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a "package of proposals for North Korean crisis solving." Its major points are as follows (comments in parentheses):

  1. The Korean peninsula should preserve its no-nuclear status, while the USA and North Korea should continue strictly fulfilling the earlier concluded agreements, including the basic agreement of 1994.

  2. The U.S. should provide safety guarantees to North Korea.

  3. Humanitarian and economic cooperation that existed earlier on the Korean peninsula (i.e., donations of food, fuel, etc., from the U.S. to North Korea) should be resumed.

  4. The U.S. and the U.N. should not put the "North Korea problem" up for discussion in the U.N. Security Council.
By Jan. 15, Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov discussed this package with his American, French, Chinese and South Korean colleagues.

I would prefer to restrain from commenting on this "Moscow package for North Korea." It would be more suitable to give here the brief contents of the article "America as ‘Out-of-Society’ Country," published by the Moscow-based Zavtra weekly paper (a strongly anti-American and very informed paper) on Jan. 14, 2003.

Its author, Alexandr Brezhnev (evidently, not a relative of the deceased Leonid Brezhnev, general secretary of the former CPSU), at the end of August - beginning of September 2002, published in Zavtra a series of articles hailing Kim Jong-il and his regime. Brezhnev accompanied Kim Jong-il on his trip to the Russian Far East on Aug. 20-24 and, evidently, met him even earlier. (Comments are in parentheses.)

"Kim Jong-il openly challenged America just at the moment when this country intends to invade Iraq and nobody dares to oppose Washington. And Kim Jong-il appeared to be the winner. America could not take his challenge.

Moreover, the South Korean government - and broad masses of South Korean people infuriated by the recent traffic accident involving U.S. troops – de facto took the North Korean side. For the first time in 50 years, North Korea and South Korea, in practice, united against Washington.

And the Russian Foreign Ministry will get the maximum gains. The "package for the North Korea crisis" project proposed by this Ministry entirely responds to North Korean interests. The project includes all the North Korean requirements:

Only under these preconditions (worked out jointly by Pyongyang, Moscow and, evidently, Beijing) will North Korea give up its nuclear development. No concessions from Pyongyang will take place.

Importantly, North Korea’s anti-American actions helped to delay the Iraqi war. This helped Iraq and other "out-of-society countries" (i.e., rogue nations) all over the world. This also lifted the prestige of Moscow, which got the exclusive right for being a middleman between the U.S. and Japan on one hand and North Korea on the other.

Putin acted already in this influential role (on Jan. 10, 2003) during the talks with Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi in Moscow.

It is in the interests of Russia, China, North Korea and South Korea to greatly decrease the U.S. presence in the Northeast Asian region - though nobody says it aloud.

Everything (in the actions of Pyongyang, which is supported by Moscow and Beijing) is aimed at the withdrawal of 40,000 U.S. troops and the U.S. 7th Fleet from South Korea.

Withdrawal of American troops would create the opportunity for

Without the U.S. presence, the entire (Northeast Asian) region would flourish in several years.

North Korea took the role of the locomotive in pushing out the Yankees. Kim Jong-il is no longer the head of an "out-of-society" country. The U.S. has been transformed into such a country in this region." (end of brief translation)

Zavtra hates the Putin regime and usually scolds it as a "running dog" of America and the West. This time Zavtra gave the Russian Foreign ministry and Putin the highest mark.

And, evidently, it is impossible to describe in more precise detail the official goals of Moscow on the Korean Peninsula and all of Northeast Asia.

To be continued.

Visit Dr. Nemets' Web site at http://www.ExcelEnterprises.net. or

http://excelenterprises1.tripod.com

Additional message:

Presently, Dr. Nemets, with his friends in the Hudson Institute (Washington, D.C., division), is preparing the seminar "Events Around North Korea and the Real rRole of China and Russia." This seminar may take place in March 2003.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
China/Taiwan

George W. Bush
North Korea
Russia

Editor's note:
Chinese Military Manual Calls for "Unrestricted" War Against America


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Russia
KEYWORDS: northkorea; russia
The other Axis of Evil.
1 posted on 02/15/2003 11:32:57 PM PST by HighRoadToChina
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To: HighRoadToChina
How about running a power grid up from the south ?
This could solve the North's power problem and provide a link that would crash if there was a war.
2 posted on 02/15/2003 11:39:14 PM PST by RS
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To: HighRoadToChina
America has an answer for Russia, China and finally North Korea as these three embrace "constructive dialouge" in resloution of this crisis... Japan, Inc. has been given the green light to become a nuclear power, and soon South Korea and Taiwan will announce to the world they too have possesed nuclear weapons since 1979. Regional fractionism, started by communist regimes in Asia will now reap something unforeseen five years ago in their "5 Year Plans" - a conventionally strong Japan now armed with nuclear weapons on its World Class/State of the Art Fleet that can maintain control of Sea Lanes 1000-1500 miles from Tokyo without fail.

Japan is debating now in the Diet at different times the urges to militarism. In Japan, enough plautonim is missing to make 25-100 nuclear weapons already:) One wonders as when this stuff is missing it always turns up in military applications.

Russia and China have been looking for a diplomatic edge against America; they do not have the economic or military edge so they try to overload Americas triad (Military-Economic-Political) and force GeoPolitical stalemates upon the US; but American Military technology is already 5-10 years ahead but the current trajectory for American Defenses by 2015 is to have a totally revamped military controlling the space frontier with stationary orbiting air/space craft who function as intelligence platforms/military fighters and in all likelyhood many will be unmanned, directed by squadron commanders on shifts and ground controllers - once this happens the worlds communications and movements will be recorded at all levels except underground giving Peace and Security for Americans and the world - those who think America wants to control the world have nothing but their own past to place against the past path America has taken in supporting independent self-supporting nations and regional security.

America may lose battles and portions of population over the next 10 years but by the time this matter with the Arab-Russian & Franco-Germanic axis is setteled, American Military power will have eclisped anything imagined. It is no secret that the US is already disengaging from Europe as trade with Asia has long since made the old world less important; European politics have also made it clear to American Business interests (for various reasons) that less critical trade with Europe increases stability at America's home and abroad. America does not wish to compete with Europe in idealogical, trade or political barbs - but has chosen a path of least resistence to Asia in hopes of allowing Europe to accept the US as the US has made its peace the state of Europe.

3 posted on 02/16/2003 12:39:37 AM PST by Jumper
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To: Jumper
Good analysis. Trading with Communist China is not health for America's national security.
4 posted on 02/16/2003 12:45:48 AM PST by HighRoadToChina (Never Again!)
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To: HighRoadToChina
However, trading with Asia is and by extension trade with China provides a regional economic stimlus that further increases this area's vitality. Managed trade, with bumps like Clinton's misguided technology/spy scandel is apt to happen with liberals in charge; I doubt China wants a war with the US given the fact that Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan together make a stronger alliance than NATO against the threats. China, if she went to war, will now face America from her read in South West Asia as well through the back doors in former USSR states:) Given that power in China is concentrated in a joint military-political sphere, it is highly likely in the aftermath of a war that the World's most populous nation might in fact splinter into 8-11 regional state!
5 posted on 02/16/2003 12:52:20 AM PST by Jumper
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To: Jumper
Read Bill Gertz's The China Threat.
6 posted on 02/16/2003 1:21:34 AM PST by HighRoadToChina (Never Again!)
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To: Jumper; backhoe; goldilucky; Cindy; MeeknMing; ALOHA RONNIE; Fred Mertz
Bookmarked/BTTT
7 posted on 02/16/2003 1:23:27 AM PST by WatchNKorea ( http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a37a7ce78f9.htm)
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To: HighRoadToChina

Gertz, Bill: The China Threat: How the People’s Republic ...
Gertz, Bill: The China Threat: How the People’s Republic Targets America,Conservative,Book
Club,Reagan,Homeschool,Human Events,Eagle Publishing,Religion ...
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8 posted on 02/16/2003 2:53:09 AM PST by backhoe (Do NOT Read this! Under penalty of Law!)
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To: WatchNKorea; HighRoadToChina
Mark Steyn (click below for entire article):

Take a look at a satellite picture of the peninsula by night: South Korea ablaze in electric light, the North in darkness. In Far East Asia, North Korea’s the hole in the doughnut.


North Korea at Night

9 posted on 02/16/2003 5:30:22 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye SADdam. You're soon to meet your buddy Stalin in Hades.)
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To: MeeknMing
Superb pic Meek. Thank you so much. Bttt
10 posted on 02/16/2003 6:47:45 AM PST by WatchNKorea ( http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a37a7ce78f9.htm)
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To: WatchNKorea
Thank you.

bttt...

11 posted on 02/16/2003 6:53:50 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (Bu-bye SADdam. You're soon to meet your buddy Stalin in Hades.)
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To: WatchNKorea
America may lose battles and portions of population over the next 10 years but by the time this matter with the Arab-Russian & Franco-Germanic axis is setteled, American Military power will have eclisped anything imagined. It is no secret that the US is already disengaging from Europe as trade with Asia has long since made the old world less important; European politics have also made it clear to American Business interests (for various reasons) that less critical trade with Europe increases stability at America's home and abroad. America does not wish to compete with Europe in idealogical, trade or political barbs - but has chosen a path of least resistence to Asia in hopes of allowing Europe to accept the US as the US has made its peace the state of Europe.

So now the U.S. will diminsh its soverignty for the sake of European terms? If this is what is really meant by the "path of least resistance", then these are just the beginning of more troubles ahead for the U.S.

12 posted on 02/16/2003 11:59:52 AM PST by goldilucky
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To: goldilucky
I wrote this, and it infers that American future engagement in economic and military interests will become fixated upon Asia; the European shpere is mired in high costs and there is less America needs, or can afford from Europe in trade; that in relation to global security, Europe will take care of herself. The new frontier that requires viligance is now Asia for both economic and security; much of the worlds oil transents these waters, the majority of American overseas trade is pacific and the larger markets/populations with growth potential is also Asia.

Not an issue of dimished sovernity, but rather an expanded horizon that allows a smaller focus on Europe. Europe needs to focus on Europe and her own needs and we will see an European focus on Africa and South West Asia/Russian republics; however, the US will focus on Taiwan, South Korea & possibly North, Japan, Singapore, Philippines and Asstrallia/India; the major losers will be North Korea, Viet Nam and China if anything goes sour in this theater. Again the major emphasis and engery of America will be to the Pacific and in this fashion we will be better cooperating with Europe by allowing Europe to find herself, and a new voice in the process by which to reopen the channels of "miscommunication" with North America.

13 posted on 02/16/2003 1:20:55 PM PST by Jumper
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To: Jumper
American future engagement in economic and military interests will become fixated upon Asia;..."

That right there says it all. And how shall America be able to look after itself when it has fixated itself on Asian products which mainly benefits the Asian military? What about America making products in America? So far we've been taking care of other countries when we should be taking care of our own. In the U.S. being fixated on another nation doesn't solve the problem of "miscommunication" that we've had with Europe.

14 posted on 02/16/2003 2:43:04 PM PST by goldilucky
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To: goldilucky
Apparently, to many in the US, there is no concept of global trade. Europe has a unique set of problems (high retirement rates, socialized medicine, unemployment over 10%, social unrest - due to high taxes/immigration) that form the nexus for the vocal attacks emminating from European politicians. Have you noticed anything strange in European Trading practices over the past 10 year, a hint is that there are virturally no profitable investments in the private sector but rather a heavy reliance on State Start-ups of industry later passed to "friends/private oweners" due to unprofitablity, e.g., Europe cannot invest at home and turn a profit because of high taxes - even with the government absorbing the start up costs and giving incentives does not help. America has taken note of this trend and it is unlikely that the US will continue to "strategically" invest in losing industries in an attempt to keep manufacturing jobs or a "market share". The US has long since matured into an economy where 85% of business in internal, and import/export accounts for only 15% of the total economy. Europe is less than 5% today and further decline due to above mentioned factors will serve to only excalbrate this trend. Aside from oil, the US leads the world in Aerospace {why does everyone try to compete is for "strategic" reasons both poltical, economic and military}, Banking and Insurance, and Telecommunications. Nearly 70% of all financial transactions transmitted anywhere in the world are via US communications - a fee is charged:) If you look at State Department Trade negotiations, the US is more interested in opening Banking, Investments, Insurance, Communications, and aircraft trade to American expansion into these "strategic government markets" all over the world - Japan and China resist to this day in these areas due to losing finaincial grip on their own economies as they open to "fair" trading practices. These areas of trade do not show up in manufacturing statistics but rather in "services" accounts. Services does not mean fast food all the time and the US is again the world leader in this area. Americans fail to understand this basic factor when looking at Jobs and Production. America does compete in certain high tech manufacturing. Whether one likes the idea or not, the US makes a lot of money of Arms sales.

As for the problems of miscommunication with Europe, I happen to live here and these sheeple are deaf, dumb and blinded by retheoric from their socialist politicians. The bill is coming due here; the Value Added Taxes are around 20% on every purchase in Europe; in Germany gas is about a dollar a liter (3.75 liter = 1 gallon US); in The Netherlands a liter of prem gas is about 1.30 euro.... The governments in Europe scrape 50-72% off the top of your salary before you buy gas or make other purchases. The VAT started as temporary measures about the time the US Marshall Plan monies dried up for rebuilding Europe after WWII at the end of the sixities. Europe's grand medical and social programs were actually brought about by the savings to Europeans due to the Marshall Plan money in their economy. In Belgium, nearly 1/2 of the workforce is retired, unemployed and the other 1/2 enjoy fantastic benefits to the tune of 5 weeks vaction a year, 38 hour workweeks (and a very basic medical that is best for catastrophic illness's but not much on the medical maintenance coverage). Germany has over 10% unemployment, France more still. The misunderstanding with these three countries is attributable to the sudden realization that the very lucerative illicit trade with Iraq is about to come to an end; count Russia into the group that stands to lose but in worst financial shape due to no economy at all. European politicians in Belgium, France and Germany are very far to the Left and under severe pressure from the Conservative Right (it is not all the Eric Heiders either:)). There is a slow realization that the gravy train is coming to an end in European countries and Leftist Government Services cannot much longer exist - and so many stand to lose everything they were promised so they continue to vote to the left - but not enough is LEFT inside the economy to continue the chirade (French Chirac) much longer. This Conservative pressure will lead to further loses in Germany and France the next election cycle and this will correct the Miscommunication with those two European countries; Belgium is specail case but I suspect the weakening Euro this Summer will help maintain, along with their Colonies abroad, their Left leaning Politicians another 5-7 years. There is nothing American can do to apease or fix the transalantic rift, but Europeans themselves will vote the problems away.

Left in America and Europe are solemates, joined at the hip in opposition ot Republican Administrated America. Nothing will change this either:) Sad but time will wound all heels from the Left.

Therefore, given the 2-5 year duration of this rift, America cannot dwell on Europe but rather let her run her course as America expands her own horizons; In a very real sense the primary threats in the timeframe beyond 5-10 years lies in Asia as well - better to trade and intertwine the economies of all Asian countries to prevent them from fighting.... Globalization is a real risk but unavoidable.

15 posted on 02/16/2003 4:11:45 PM PST by Jumper
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To: Jumper
Your post makes damn good sense. Most Americans have not a clue as to what is taking place in Europe ever since they went on the Euro dollar. But it goes further than that as living under a socialist structured system actually destroys a country. Europe might as well be living under a communist country in that there are too many holidays, too high of taxation on "income", and nobody there has the desire to invest. As long as the State continues to provide for individuals over in Europe, the individual lives for the State. And as long as the individual lives for the State the individual is recognized as a subject. Russia is one example and China is another.


I look at the Marshall Plan as a socialist incentive not to re-build an economy but to keep it
16 posted on 02/16/2003 8:56:33 PM PST by goldilucky
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To: goldilucky
Too bad American cannot education her citizens, but the Federal Govt made a mockery of higher education which had the trickle down effect of poor elementary education, backed now by the NTA and NEA (both liberal socialist nonperformance entitlement entities).

We will be okay as our new president has a plan that is now in place that will last 10-years, the dept of homeland security - it will have the effect of reorganizating the federal government and tie up any future adminstrations for the next 10-years! It is a Republican version of the The Deal or Civil Rights Act with the same effect, to preputate the party that implemented it:)

17 posted on 02/16/2003 11:51:43 PM PST by Jumper
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To: Jumper
Too bad American cannot education her citizens, but the Federal Govt made a mockery of higher education which had the trickle down effect of poor elementary education, backed now by the NTA and NEA (both liberal socialist nonperformance entitlement entities).

As long as the federal government funds state universities, the so-called schools of "higher learning", and other public schools, the federal government will always mock those being educated as well as those teaching. When you have the NEA setting up the teaching criteria for both the public schools and universities, the schools become government schools. Sounds like the same system used in Nazi, Germany. If your kid wasn't in school, the State Government would come and drag your kid in school. That is why many families are pulling their kids out of the public schools and putting them in private schools or private turoring.

18 posted on 02/17/2003 11:14:23 AM PST by goldilucky
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To: HighRoadToChina
bump
19 posted on 02/17/2003 11:51:59 AM PST by GrandMoM (Spare the rod, spoil the child!)
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