Skip to comments.Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney? [Say What?!? 7-10% of Tea Party Evangelicals support Obama??]
Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are bolting from the base. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I cant write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
“Tea Party evangelicals.” Isn’t that an oxymoron? The Tea Party is atheistic secularist - their downfall. They refuse to put God in their platform. The Tea Party is like the Democratic Party of America without the socialism, but that is exactly their ignorance. Without God - failure. The Tea Party has already failed...only remnants left.
Conservatives not supporting RINO Romney...go figure.
If Romney had not picked Ryan, he would most certainly be dead in the water...their contest for American dollars would be over. That is his only saving grace and we will see if it is God’s will to save the USA or not in November. We could even be blessed with a miracle.
Pray, pray, and pray some more for God’s mercy on this nation and on the whole world. With things going the way they are now, we will all be begging for His mercy soon. Hopefully the tide will change direction.
There are dozens of different groups and movements within the Republican coalition ~ however, it's not so much the base that's a problem, but a group that is not part of the base ~ we've ended up calling it the GOP-e on FR. They are at most 15% if you count all their hangers-on and supplicants.
Who appointed you chief censor.
Seems to me its just as easy for those like you pushing a deeply flawed liberal candidate to take the next 50 days off.
Really if you don't like what those who will never vote for R/R have to say then just ignore them..bashing the social conservatives is getting old and I suspect is counterproductive to getting your guy elected your sole focus may be getting a liberal elected at the top of the ticket elected but telling social conservatives their vote is meaningless may be just the holier than thou crap that keeps many from the polls to elect conservatives down ticket. Push your candidate all you want but do conservatives a favor and stop bashing those who will never vote for Romney so that conservatives down ticket can get elected in states that are going for either liberal at the top of the ticket but have competitive races in the Senate and House.
The people on this thread do not know Mitt Romney's position on abortion.
Thank You! I am discouraged on a daily basis, while reading post on FR, at the number of “conservatives”, “tea party”, or “what evers” who still do not realize it is over. We are now 4 years past the “tipping point”. It is time for planning how to rebuild from the Hell we are now having crash around us.
Why do so many REFUSE to learn from history? It is always clear to look back at the point where things turned. It is so hard to see it at the time because to see it takes guts, not intelligence. Wishfull thinking kills your grand kids.
I look to an O win as the motivation of a dramatically stepped up citizens action movement, much as the Tea Party began a dramatic change in political action. There were more than a million people who turned up in DC to oppose Obamacare. His election will bring out larger numbers with greater staying power to eclipse OWS.
When hard working citizens are faced with the destruction of their lives by government there will be an uprising like we have not seen since the veterans camp out in DC following WWI. The single aim will be to bring down this corrupt administration. Short of blood in the streets this is the only way to end this reign of terror.
Romney wasn’t my first choice, but his stock has moved up significantly as I have learned more about him.
The real key is actually the Congress! If we can get the right kind of bills and budgets passed, I am sure Romney will sign them. We must get the Senate and a President that will sign what the conservatives (I pray) send up. We, the people, also need to give Romney guidance early and often to preclude a miss step that his staff doesn’t want to take back. We also need someone in DOJ (and a whole new staff) to clean up the Democrat corruption. Keep the knife at their throats and they will be a lot more respectful.
Yep. Even though another 4 years of Hussein will be terrible, you’re not going to find true conservatives voting for Romney.
I don’t like it either way, but this is what is going to happen.
Sarah Palin has already endorsed Mitt.
I believe in the checks and balances. We've survived 4 years of Obama. We'll survive another 4 years of Obama.
I don't buy the sky is falling so we have to elect the GOP liberal instead of the 'rat liberal.
The GOP is failing because they didn't offer an alternative to Obama. They offered a "me too" "hope and change" solution.
Your post was removed because it was "making it personal" - referring to another Freeper, personally, as a "traitor."
To avoid flame wars on the Religion Forum, the guideline here is to discuss the ISSUES, not the individual Freepers. So not only personal attacks are disallowed, e.g. "you're a coward" - but ad hominems also, e.g. "you think" or "you want" or "you're being foolish."
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Doesn’t matter to me who she endorses. I’m not voting for a Leftist Pubbie or Dem.
Collectivism has never worked any where or any time it has been tried. The only thing it has ever been successful at doing is killing and destroying everything it touches.
If you like drinking the Leftist Pubbie Fool-Aid then drink it like there’s no tomorrow.
A vote for Romney or Obama is a vote for collectivism resulting in the destruction of America.
The one trend both Leftist parties hate seeing is the rise in the continuing number of independent voters who are sick and tired of the charade.
The damage that 0 has done, and will continue to do, on this country will be irrevocable. I understand you don't believe that, but I do. Mitt's not the first choice of most FReepers, but I do believe he loves this country and does not want to further our demise. 0's intentions are clear - and our "checks and balances" are NOT working under his reign of "boot on the necks" (SCOTUS BammyCare decision, debt ceiling, etc.) .
I am voting against Obama and you need to do that, too, no matter how vile he might be relative the “true” conservative you want. IF you chose not to vote against Obama, you have basically cast a vote for him (I can actually explain that if you like and it explains a lot of GOP behavior...).
I don’t like Romney - he was the governor of the “Bluest” state in the Union - by definition there has to be a lot wrong with him. But right now, I’d vote for a GOP Hillary! to get Obama out. Obama is that bad.
Besides, I knew it would come to this. There were too many real conservatives running and they split the conservative vote. Didn’t help that my favorite crashed and burned.
“I’m not voting for a liberal. Regardless of party.”
Then in all likelihood, by your standards, I’ll guess you won’t be voting in a U.S. presidential election again?
My vote for Sarah isn’t just a vote against Obama it is also a vote against Romney and Leftism.
Do you think that if Mittens is voted in that he will stop America from going over the fiscal cliff because of the Progressive policies instituted by both parties over the decades? Even if he tried to reverse course and bring sanity to this situation it’s way to late for that.
He will carry on what Obama, Bush 43, Clinton, Bush 41, Reagan, et al have been doing whether the American people like it or not.
If Mittens is elected let’s see how disallusioned you and the other FReepers are after four more years of Progressivism.
There is a huge disconnect, so I must be missing something. The older child, a boy of nearly 12, is an enthusiastic worker. I have employed him for lawn mowing and such. He is very conservative and really, when you talk with the parents, they are, as well. This is a hard-working family, with close-knit values who are a contributing part of their community.
The point, IMO, is that these are good folks. They play by the rules. They have lost and still seem to back the perpetrator of their own loss. It does seem stupid, but, again, except for this idee fixe about zer0, they don’t manifest stupidity.
All I can think of is that somehow we have watched a huge change in the definition of *good* and, as the progs will tell us, endlessly: “People want to be good”. Evidently, they also want to be good even if it kills them.
Also, there apparently has been a successful push to characterize Romney/Republicans as *not good*. There are people who should be backing our side, but they cannot because they are convinced that we are *bad*. I mentioned on another thread that recently I have read statements to the effect that folks will leave the country if Romney is elected. These are not the usual suspects, but friends of friends who are outspoken conservative Christians. The writer posts a lot of conservative statements. It is the _idea_ of Romney and the GOP that frightens her, not the reality.
I am afraid I can’t get disillusioned. I don’t have any expectations.
It seems like there are FReepers that are all gung-ho for him thinking that he’s going to be sooooo different from Obama. In some ways, yes, but the Progressive Program for America will still continue to roll on.
Was the last tyrant bad? Yeah! So let’s vote in another tyrant! Yeah!
Bovines and sheep are all that come to mind.
I see it as more like a choice between a Euroweenie socialist and a hard line communist. We can’t stop the trip to Hell, but we can slow the hand basket just a bit.
I share some of your contempt for the choices we face. Having said that, our time to fight the eGOP is during the primary and during the off season from the ground up. Skipping the vote guarantees a certified Marxist will be elected.
Romney, no matter how many faults, is clearly a better choice. If I were trapped in a forest fire, and had to choose between the fire (obama), and crawling through the sewer(eGOP) to escape..ok both suck, but one will kill you for sure. The other is foul and may kill you, but you have a chance to fight another day.
That is perhaps our choice this year. Suicide, or live to fight another day.
Romney will just be another Bush. Did we not learn anything from his time in office? Obviously not.
I learned that Gore/Kerry were much, much more dangerous choices. I’ve also observed that complaining about bad candidates every four years, then doing little or nothing to change the party in the interum is lazy.
Btw, good luck feeding that crocodile. If you’re lucky, it will bite everyone else, before it gets to you.
I dont like saying this but here goes,the answer is usually(not always) the simplest and just may be the case involving the family.I have met people(my own mother(Shes a commie)that just cant get it.
We really do not know what his position on abortion is. He is a politician, and not a true Christian, so what he said and what he has done in the past may have been him bending his beliefs to get along politically. Also, his beliefs seem to have been slowly evolving towards pro life. He may have changed his mind. Why not give him the benefit of the doubt. It could be that if he is President and not politically hampered by a very Democratic state that his true heart is pro life. He says that he is pretty pro life. We know that Obama is rabidly for death. There is no question or room to wonder where he is at. We know that he squarely in Satan's corner of death.
I don't exactly trust that Romney will be pro life, but I certainly have more room to hope that he is, and have not even a shred of hope concerning Obama. Romney is who the Republican candidate is right now, and we need to deal in the reality of this fact. Because he has declared himself pro life (Except for rape, incest or life of the mother, I believe, which I completely do not go along with.) he would likely be very much easier to work with concerning laws to protect babies in the womb, and out of the womb, than the one who has proven himself an unrepentant monster.
To see that his view about life may have been evolving towards pro life for a while go to http://2012.republican-candidates.org/Romney/Abortion.php .
Also, Romney is a devout Mormom (Which, yes, is a cult.) and has always said that he was personally against abortion, but didn't want to impose his religious beliefs on others. At least, as a devout Mormom, his own personal beliefs have not been for abortion. This is where he claims to have changed his thinking, and he now thinks that it should be left up to States. According to the Mormom site:
In 1973, the First Presidency of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints released the following statement regarding abortion, which is still applicable today:
The Church opposes abortion and counsels its members not to submit to or perform an abortion except in the rare cases where, in the opinion of competent medical counsel, the life or good health of the mother is seriously endangered or where the pregnancy was caused by rape and produces serious emotional trauma in the mother. Even then it should be done only after counseling with the local presiding priesthood authority and after receiving divine confirmation through prayer.
August 27, 2012 CBS interview
PELLEY: Well, the platform as written at this convention for the Republicans does not allow for exceptions on abortion with regard to the health of the mother or rape or incest. Is that where you are?
ROMNEY: No. My position has been clear throughout this campaign. Im in favor of abortion being legal in the case of rape and incest, and the health and life of the mother.
I am not sure what you mean by "too late". I know that this is his position, which is not mine, which is that human life must be protected from conception. But his point of view, if heart felt and real, is a very long ways from Obama's view, which even allows for a baby to be thrown in the trash after being born alive. Obama has adamantly pushed for abortion, it's funding and implementation, for any reason, and at any time, not only in this Country, but around the worlds. Obama is a death monger.
On the other hand Romney may be able to influenced and worked with when it comes to passing laws and also placing judges on the Supreme Court and other federal courts. He is not rigidly opposed to all that is pro life.
I am altogether pro life, but when the real choice right now is between someone who has become more pro life, and may be able to be worked with, and a consummate death monger, I think that we should choose the one who hopefully will be pro life in his decisions. I know that he may be other than who he says, but still, he is likely to be better than Obama, especially since his religion, which he strongly professes, believes in abortion only in truly extreme cases (which again, I do not).
Not that I'd ever tell a pollster that;-)
All I can say is, that’s nice, thank you for sharing your feelings and hopes with us.
And what do you have to offer, besides cutting our nose off to spite our face? Seriously, I would like to know your plan and your reasoning.
Thanks for your reply.
That’s where you are wrong, at least where I’m concerned. We don’t sit back and let things go on as usual. I’m sure some will but quite a few I know won’t. It’s not all about what benefits just us/me.
No I’m not under the impression Romney will fix all things but it gives us a shot, one we don’t have with Obama.
I know what is going on with this country but it is just hard to put it into words and I expect people to be angry and unhappy at the situation a bit.
It has to do with people coming at things from different angles and points of view. And I mean within , not just conservative people, but everyone on the right and people who do not like Democrats and Obama. The left will always be a polar opposite of the right and un-american.. But the right is having a hard time figuring out the direction to go.
Lot of people on the left are blinded by hate for America. Lot of people on the right are upset at the left, but are not lock and step on the solution to the problems. I’ve heard good and compelling arguments for and against Romney on the right. I was one of those completely against him in the primaries. I felt people were dumb to have voted for him when we had much better candidates in Santorum, Bachmann and Cain. The left leaning states that went for Obama in 2008 did not see things the way people in the midwest and south saw things. They loved Romney and we were calling him a flip-flopping leftist who created the blue print for Obamacare. Charges of fraud by the left to help Romney were always thrown around on the internet.
The primaries became very polarizing as some people, in my opinion, were duped by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich into supporting them when both guys had a lot of anti-conservative baggage. But so does Romney. Therefore, now everyone is unsure what Romney will do when he wins and gets inaugurated. We hope he kills off Obamacare and does not try to pass Romneycare on a national basis like he wanted between 06 and 09. We hope he fixes the immigration situation and closes the border down, but does not implement amnesty or comprehensive immigration reform with democrat support.
These are wild times because everything is so unpredictable. Romney is the only choice left for many, but not the first choice. The Palin crowd hanged on till the bitter end when she would not run. Now some people want Romney already challenged by a more conservative person in 2016. He hasn’t even won yet.
And therein lies the problem that people are not in agreement on much. I am with Ann Barnhart who wanted Romney to go home in 2011 and not run. Now we are stuck with him sink or swim. I was for Michele Bachmann and I can say that I went to great lengths to defend her against just about everyone.
The libertarians hated her with a passion. There Ron Paul and Gary Johnson can do no wrong. Bachmann was some neo-con warmonger they said. They bashed her for voting for the Patriot Act and supporting Israel. But Bachmann actually had a very similar economic plan and ideas as Ron Paul, in many aspects. So when she started to as they called it “parrot” Ron, they grew even angrier that she was going to take votes away from him. So they worked to finish her off and spread lies all over the web about her. There watershed moment was stealing some of her delegates at the 11th hour with the Iowa primary about 72 hours away and them switching to Ron Paul. Vindictive people.
Then you had Perry and Gingrich supporters. They attacked Bachmann at any and all costs. They were attacking just about anybody who got in the way. And Bachmann got in the way. Perry came into the race with the goal of both knocking off Pawlenty and Bachmann out of the race for good and taking their voters. Behind a coalition of a bunch of rowdy supporters, Perry stormed in and took a primary lead. As such he took Bachmann support away. After that nothing Bachmann could do was enough. The Perry crowd went after her fist and nails and trashed her at every opportunity. They disliked her inability to attack Romney and thus felt she was helping him win the primary. Then they disliked some of her comments. They later said she was helping Ron Paul because she praised him at a few debates for his economic stances.
Then Perry faded, and Gingrich took over. As Gingrich soared in the polls, the Gingrich folks went after Bachmann. They challenged her on the Patriot Act, on her attitude in debates, on attacking Gingrich and on not having enough experience in congress and politics like Newt. But Newt faded away after a South Carolina primary win.
Then came the Palin fans, early Santorum supporters, some people with Cain. A bunch of Palin fans hated her being the other woman in the race, because Palin was going to “jump” in at any moment. While they waited, they took the long knives out to go after Bachmann. Ed Rollings, the goof who went on to be with Fox News, made a gaffe about Palin when she did a bus tour and he was running Bachmann’s campaign. That was the start of the end for Bachmann. People attacked her for his comments day and night. Wanted Michele to apologize for him and when Ed apologize it was not enough. So they kept on criticizing her. By the time Palin made it official that she was not running, Bachmann was not looking good and Palin went on a show and said this was not the time for Michele as things did not look good. Thanks, but it was not the time for Palin either. No hard feelings but people got catty, batty and the claws came out in the primaries.
Then Santorum chimed in and attacked Bachmann. To not get this comment too long let me just say he stole support in Iowa that helped him win the state that was looking at endorsing Bachmann when she was ahead of Santorum in polls. How he did it, I have no idea. But it was Santorum vs. Bachmann for support in Iowa between conservatives and Christians and Rick won. No hard feelings on my part because then I started to support Santorum when Bachmann dropped out. But even the Cain folks brought out the claws when she quipped that his 999 plan was more like 666. So everyone was attacking everyone.
Romney stood above the fray and nobody could bring him down. Not even Santorum winning state after state that was republican did him no good. The primary system is a joke anyways. And so that is an example of what went on. The division won’t be healed quickly. People were mad at Bush on some level on the right. They were unhappy with other nominees for president like John McCain and Bob Dole. Conservatives hate rinos and establishment types. The tea party movement started to vent frustration on all sides with the left and the rinos on the right. And now people do not agree on various things like who is a rino and who to vote for in primaries. Romney won and he is the only one left now to support in order to beat Obama. But this is a long way from being fixed. And the divisions only helped split apart the conservative votes in the primary and Romney, the establishment candidate, won.