“This is how I see a crash as inevitable.”
Agree with the entire thrust and reasoning of your points, though I demur from this last point. Rather than an “inevitable” crash, I would more cautiously portend “very likely”. A quibble, perhaps, but over-certitude about predicted futures is the cardinal sin of any who deign to read the entrails of events and times unknown (cf: Camping, H.).
Still and all, my own (admittedly limited) knowledge of Chinese history cannot but conclude that any straight-line predictions of its future are largely chimerical. China has vacillated from wildly expansionist to suicidally isolationist, from the heights of scientific and cultural knowledge to the nadir of “cultural revolutions”, from societal prosperity to perditious poverty. Along the way, the scale and timing of the event horizon is damnably tricky to discern, even if the broadly cyclical outline is seemingly steady. Of note in this context, though, is that their peculiar history also is marked by repeated instances of savage violence (whether external or internal) at all turnings of regnant regimes.
In the contemporary instance, I suggest the fulcra will be core societal morality (more specifically the utter lack of same in China) and/or seriously destabilizing demographics.