Free Republic

Donald Trump has 39 percent of the vote in our Pennsylvania polling average, 37 percent in California, and 39 percent in Maryland. If this were February or early March, that would leave him without much to worry about. Even if Trump picked up zero undecided voters, he’d be pretty much guaranteed a win with the rest of the vote divided between a half-dozen opponents. But those days are over. In Wisconsin on Tuesday, Trump had 35 percent of the vote — the same share that allowed him to win New Hampshire easily in February, and a larger percentage than he...

Opponents or Enemies? In any conflict, it is a deadly error to mistake or underestimate the adversary's capabilities, will to employ them, or ultimate goals. Around the globe, what was once confidently deemed “Western civilisation” is in an end-stage battle with champions of a collectivist and statist ideology which, over the last century, has enacted programs of redistributive taxation, borrowing, and spending whose unsustainability has now become self-evident and which, unless the present course is altered, will collapse in at most ten years. Further, the second- and higher-order effects of these policies have led to demographic collapse in the societies...

As a general matter, I agree (as did Ronald Reagan) that free trade is good for America; when we open up foreign markets, it helps American farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers. But TPA in this Congress has become enmeshed in corrupt Washington backroom deal-making, along with serious concerns that it would open up the potential for sweeping changes in our laws that trade agreements typically do not include. Since the Senate first voted on TPA, there have been two material changes. First, WikiLeaks subsequently revealed new troubling information regarding the Trade in Services Agreement, or TiSA, one of the trade deals...

Shi Zhengrong was called a “hero of the environment” by Time Magazine. He was a billionaire who ran the worlds largest seller of solar PV cells. But the glory days of 2008 – 2011 are gone. Another bubble bursts. Wiped out in two years. How fast was this fall? In 2008, CNN named Shi “China’s Sunshine Boy.” In 2009, Fortune anointed him “China’s new king of solar.” That year, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman also cited Shi and Suntech as models of China’s green leap forward — which he called “the Sputnik of our day” and a spur for...

In the wake of Barack Obama's disastrous debate performance, and clear signs that Mitt Romney is gaining momentum in the final weeks of the campaign, the media this morning are seizing on a new poll showing Obama up 2 percent in generally safe Republican Arizona, 44-42, among likely voters. For weeks, we've seen deep blue states becoming more competitive. This is the first red state showing any kind of sign of being competitive. The media obviously love this story, but that doesn't make it true. The media believe this poll because it confirms their belief that Hispanics will turn out...

Marist, the polling outfit that managed to find President Barack Obama with a mind-boggling 17-point lead in Virginia earlier this year, released its new Virginia poll on Wednesday. The poll found Mitt Romney closing the gap on President Barack Obama and only trailing Obama by two points, 48% to 46%. The poll was conducted before Romney thumped Obama in Wednesday night's debate. Marist says “little has changed” in the new poll but fails to mention what was perhaps the biggest difference from their last poll -- its sample. In September, the Marist poll had a D 5 sample and Obama...

Party ID and the weighting of poll samples has been a big topic of discussion in the blogs and even in the some of the old media recently. It is a good thing to shine light on the shoddy and indefensible polling practices, but the light has to get even brighter before it will cause a shift with the pollsters to become more than another front in the election campaign. They need to be systematically held up to ridicule when they engage in practices that cannot stand up to intellectual scrutiny. There should be something in polling akin to what...

Update today with new Rasmussen and Gallup included: Romney 47.8%, Obama 45.08%, Other Undecided 7.17% Trend over the past month using the daily corrected polling gap. The gap represents Romney's lead, Obama hasn't led in this corrected poll 9/29 2.77%; 9/28 2.89%; 9/27 2.91%; 9/26 0.86%; 9/25 1.55%; 9/24 3.60%; 9/23 4.03%; 9/22 4.25%; 9/21 4.10%; 9/20 3.94%; 9/19 4.21%; 9/18 4.21%; 9/17 4.95%; 9/16 4.88%; 9/15 4.91%; 9/14 4.84%; 9/13 4.54%; 9/12 3.83%; 9/11 3.91%; 9/10 3.08%; 9/09 3.18%; 9/08 4.38%; 9/07 5.42%; 9/06 5.60%; 9/05 5.60%;

A simple rebalance model anyone can use If anyone wants to rebalance polls that are of interest to them, here is a simple model that will work as long as the poll provides a intra-party voting preference. You can cut and paste the formulas or copy to a google spreadsheet. You simple fill in the data matrix on the left and the outcome is the matrix on the right.I have left the "=" sign off of the cells on the right so just add them and you are good to go. This is not mysterious and I think polling would...

Polls have caused a lot of consternation among my friends here. Some say to ignore polls, but this election season I have found them to be very consistent even thought the results vary quite a bit. The key is understanding the turnout model the poll is using. In 2008 the turnout was +7.6% dem, in 2010 it was +1.3% R. In the last Rasmussen survey 8/2012 the party affiliation is +4.3% R. Most polls are using turnout models that vary from +6 to +10% D. This is why Obama is leading in most polls. The latest NYT/CBS poll has Obama...

In any conflict, it is a deadly error to mistake or underestimate the adversary's capabilities, will to employ them, or ultimate goals. Around the globe, what was once confidently deemed “Western civilisation” is in an end-stage battle with champions of a collectivist and statist ideology which, over the last century, has enacted programs of redistributive taxation, borrowing, and spending whose unsustainability has now become self-evident and which, unless the present course is altered, will collapse in at most ten years. Further, the second- and higher-order effects of these policies have led to demographic collapse in the societies which have adopted...

A spat between American VoIP companies and the South Korean government has threatened to shut down a communications channel between U.S. soldiers and their families. The South Korean Ministry of Information and Communications, their rough equivalent to our FCC, is trying to block and shut down several VoIP services including AT&T CallVantage, Lingo, Skype and Vonage, according to a report published by the Stars and Stripes military newspaper. VoIP is often used by U.S. service members as an inexpensive way of communicating to their families back home. The Ministry of Information and Communications contends the VoIP companies have been running...

"I would like to weigh in seriously on the issue of supporting the troops by opposing the war. I think this approach leads to more dead troops and/or a US withdrawl which results in throwing away the sacrifices of those were killed or wounded. I will start of with a simple premise, no country in the world can defeat the US on the battlefield. The only way we can lose is because we decide to QUIT. Since Viet Nam the goal of every enemy we have encountered was based on convincing the left in this country to undermine the War...

<p>Opponents take aim at Highlands proposal Loss of land values and home rule feared Wednesday, April 14, 2004 BY AL FRANK Star-Ledger Staff For a second night in a row, opponents jammed a public forum and asked legislators to put the brakes on a bill that would limit development in the Highlands.</p>

<p>The GOP's Race Problem Why the party can't afford Trent Lott.</p> <p>On "Meet the Press" Sunday, Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat, made clear to Republicans the price they will pay if they allow Trent Lott to get away with "apologizing" for his egregious remarks without squarely facing up to his responsibility for them.</p>

If you want to know the deepest reason why liberals have such trouble digesting the election news, take a look at the Harper's cover story by blast-from-the-past uberliberal George McGovern. The title says it all: "The Case for Liberalism: A Defense of the Future Against the Past." Here lies bared the unexamined heart of small-l liberalism: the idea of Progress (with a very big P). The liberal faith is that history, shorn of God, is nonetheless marching irrevocably in liberalism's direction. In the minds of McGovern and his ilk, liberalism equals rationality. Therefore, while the weight of tradition, taboo and...

The History Channel is running a show on President Reagan's Legacy, interviews with GWB, Kirkpatrick, Thacher, Gorby and others. Looks good, GW speaking about Ronnie and the Berlin Wall, in preview.

Delivered at a Meeting of the National Bureau of Economic Research November 4, 1997 Will We Ever Get Tax Reform? By Lawrence B. Lindsey -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In January 1993, departing Treasury officials left some advice written on a blackboard for their incoming colleagues: "broader—base lower rates". This mantra is now broadly accepted as good advice by the Public Finance community, although admittedly we may disagree on the details of base broadening and on just how low rates should be. The departing officials had fought the good fight. The measure of their success was the same as all good volunteers who come...

Flat Tax or Sales Tax? A Win-Win Choice For America by Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D. Backgrounder #1134 August 14, 1997 | | Intruduction The current tax code of the United States is irreversibly broken and should be repealed. The tax laws undermine the country's prosperity by imposing needlessly harsh penalties on work, savings, and investment. Although many taxpayers face confiscatory tax rates and often are forced to pay more than one layer of tax on their income, the politically well-connected can take advantage of special deductions, credits, preferences, shelters, and loopholes to minimize their own tax liability. The result of...

Woodward on 60 minutes this evening, Wallace hates Bush